We've reached National Letter of Intent Day, and Ohio State did not land a 5-star running back.
Perhaps you've debated why with fellow recruiting enthusiasts. It's not an overblown thing; I have seen this anxiety myself (only because I’ve edited articles like this one):
It's understandable that there's a sense of pessimism permeating throughout the fanbase. Alford and the Buckeyes missed out on all of their top targets during the 2020 cycle. Most notably, that included five-stars Bijan Robinson (Texas) and Kendall Milton (Georgia). And the former was a silent commit before changing his mind late in the summer.
See, I'm the one of us here who does not follow recruiting. Here’s how that impacts me at Eleven Warriors: 1) whenever people DM me on Twitter trying to find out if Teenus McSpeedington from Bumblefuckerton, TX is going to commit to the Buckeyes - because they think I have #insidescoop and would know - I always tell them 50/50, time will tell 2) I'm equipped to bring a healthy non-recruiting enthusiast perspective to complaints like why didn't Ohio State land a 5-star running back; did these teens not see what JK Dobbins just did?
So here's that uninformed wisdom: Ohio State's recruiting machine is beastly, but teens are curious, self-interested and informed enough to defeat it. We can learn a lot about this from remembering why Rob Gronkowski did not end up catching passes from Terrelle Pryor. It was inevitable, and then it was impossible.
When Gronk arrived in Columbus for the second time - his official visit - Ohio State football was on top of the world. The Buckeyes had started the 2006 season as the No.1 team in the country, beaten two No.2 teams along the way - including the defending BCS champions in their own stadium - and completed their schedule without allowing any other team to borrow the top spot, even for a week.
Gronk watched his host's starting quarterback win the award on television while on his visit, and stayed long enough to still be in town when the trophy itself made it back to Columbus. He would be the program's only official visitor that week in December, which meant John Peterson - Ohio State's recruiting coordinator and TE coach - Jim Tressel, and the program's most persuasive players would all be available to make a closing argument.
Gronkowski and his girlfriend, Sports Illustrated swimsuit model Camille Kostek pose for the Jumbotron at a Celtics game in December. © Winslow Townson USAT Sports
They were in the midst of a 51-day stretch between the Game of the Century with No.2 Michigan and their BCS title bout with the Florida Gators. Final exams, the BCS title game and Gronk. Those were the priorities.
Don't know how the players did on their finals, and we do know what happened in Glendale but we also know the Buckeyes' only official visitor that week - and the sole TE on their recruiting board - did not commit to Ohio State that weekend, or ever. Gronk signed with Arizona in February while the Buckeyes did not ink a tight end in their 2007 class.
Jake Ballard had signed the previous season and Jake Stoneburner would come aboard in a year. No Gronk meant no TE that year, as there was no Plan B. He ended up catching 75 balls for 1200 yards and 16 touchdowns in just two seasons in Tucson, which would be the greatest production by an Ohio State tight end in program history, by a lot.
Except that probably wouldn't have happened in Columbus, and he knew it.
By 2006, Tresselball was a very well-known and studied commodity. Rory Nicol, whom Gronk would be battling Ballard to replace caught just 13 balls that season. Ballard topped out at 13 three consecutive seasons. Gronk once scored five touchdowns over two games his sophomore year and then quit college to add several commas to his net worth.
He verballed to Arizona four days after Florida's Percy Harvin caught nine balls for 60 yards against the Silver Bullets. Harvin played H-Back for the Gators, a position that Ohio State did not feature until Urban Meyer arrived six seasons later - by which time it was known as the Percy Harvin position. Without Meyer in Columbus, you probably don't have Jalin Marshall memories and you definitely don't have Dontre Wilson or Curtis Samuel ones.
That's because of a whole bunch of factors including that beastly recruiting machine, but most especially program fit and something called WIIFM (whiff'em, we'll define it shortly). Only six players are eligible to get the ball on any offensive play. Florida started an H against Ohio State, but rarely if ever took the field with a fullback - another one of those eligible guys.
Today, right now, the three most-highly ranked receivers Ohio State has ever signed IN ITS HISTORY HAVE 11 years of remaining eligibility between them.
Stan White Jr. and Dionte Johnson racked up snaps at fullback for the Buckeyes that season. They got the ball 18 times combined over their college careers in an offense that did not have an H-back - if it did, Ray Small or Albert Dukes would have been square peg/round hole'd into the job (and if you don't know what a fullback is, google it or just watch Michigan sometime - he's the linemanish guy who comes in for telegraphed short yardage plays).
Harvin got half of White and Johnson's career touches in a single game against the Buckeyes. White's father made the All America team playing for Woody Hayes. In the current era, Stan the Legacy would either play a different position for the Buckeyes or he would be wearing another school's uniform; it would not matter who his father was.
Today, Ohio State’s emphasis on an H-Back is not quite back to Fullback levels, but it’s definitely a post-Meyer world in Columbus. That was quick!
It's a different brand of football, and that evolution can take place over a decade or in a single season., Ohio State's 2019 Rose Bowl defensive MVP plays at Rutgers now for his former coordinator. Brendon White's football skills didn't atrophy over the course of a few months, but the importance of the Bullet position he was moved to from safety did, and program fit and his WIIFM changed while he was enrolled.
If you're wondering what any of this has to do with why the Buckeyes have been whiffing on their top running back targets in an era where JK ALL DAY in Gus Johnson's voice should be the pitch they're getting, you have to look at who Ohio State is landing atop their other position recruiting boards - specifically among the five other spots eligible for touches on offense.
High school wide receivers used to be told by other schools that they were too talented to go to Columbus and block for four years. Today, right now, the three most-highly ranked receivers Ohio State has ever signed have 11 years of remaining eligibility between them. The position room those guys are joining has multiple all-timers already in it is as well. Besides, running backs of that caliber are a little harder to come by - even in Columbus.
Gee Scott committed to Ohio State over a year ago. He's the 10th most highly-rated WR recruit in program history.
Five-star receivers aren't matriculating in droves to block for four years, and everyone knows it - so running back recruits are being told by other schools that they’re too talented to go to Columbus and max protect for four years. Sure, they'll get the ball. Of course they will. They just won't get it as much. What's In It For Me ends up winning out, and Gronk knew that 14 years ago in Columbus when the program hosting him was on top of the world.
Roster construction is the DNA of the program. When you alter the DNA, you change just about everything but the fight song. Ohio State loading up on elite receivers in the quantities that it’s currently signing is going to have an adverse impact on other specialists, because there are only so many footballs to go around. Sure, getting just one 5-star running back changes that. We have a recent example of what happens when the roster is fully loaded.
In 2015 Ohio State had two MVP quarterbacks, Ezekiel Elliott, Samuel, Braxton Miller and Michael Thomas on the field at the same time. The 2019 Heisman winner was on the bench, along with Parris Campbell, Terry McLaurin, Johnnie Dixon and Noah Brown. Meyer was stressed enough about keeping everyone happy that he spread the ball around to the point where it made a team of superheroes look like cartoon villains for much of the season.
Elliott was famously ignored against Michigan State. Thomas, the NFL's offensive MVP and chronic record-breaker was 3rd team All-B1G. That’s not how stars angel investing in their own NFL IPOs operate. What's in it for them. There are finite snaps and fewer footballs. If you're going to be WR U, you'll have to settle for 4-star running backs. Like Dobbins!
So hopefully that helps with the anxiety. I have no idea where McSpeedington signed today, but I do know Gronk in scarlet and gray would have been super fun. You cannot get them all, simply because they can't all get the ball.
