Off days don't exist in the Big Ten. Tom Izzo and Archie Miller learned that the hard way.
Having finished below .500 with a declining record each of the past three years, Northwestern was picked before the season to finish dead last in the conference without much, if any, debate. Head coach Chris Collins' team and Nebraska were, once again, the clear doormats. At least, that was the widely held belief. This week, the unexpectedly surging Wildcats beat Michigan State at home by 14 points and topped Indiana in Bloomington by seven.
| Who | Where | When | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern (5-1, 2-0) | Evanston, Illinois (Welsh–Ryan Arena) | 2 p.m. | FS1 |
Welcome to life in the Big Ten. Anything can happen in what head coach Chris Holtmann believes to be the deepest conference in the country.
Ohio State (7-1, 1-1), at this point well aware of what Northwestern's capable of doing, hopes to avoid becoming the third upset victim in what has a chance to become the biggest week for Collins' program in years. Holtmann and the Buckeyes flew to Illinois on Friday night for a 2 p.m. tipoff with the Wildcats (5-1, 2-0) at Saturday at Welsh–Ryan Arena.
Coming off of a thrilling 16-point second-half comeback to beat 11th-ranked Rutgers, 80-68, for its first Big Ten win of the season, Ohio State's riding high, too. It now holds a 1-1 conference record to go along with six out-of-conference victories that have the Buckeyes threatening to make a jump up from No. 23 in the Associated Press top-25 poll. To make that happen, they'll need to take down a frisky Northwestern team that has wins against Michigan State, Indiana, Chicago State, Arkansas Pine Bluff and Quincy on its resumé and a sole one-point loss to Pittsburgh.
Three Things To Watch
A Lot Of Scoring Options vs. A Lot Of Scoring Options
Neither Ohio State nor Northwestern constantly leans on one scoring threat over all of the others, making for an interesting matchup between a pair of squads with four or five players who can get buckets.
For the Buckeyes, E.J. Liddell is in the process of ascending to a role as the go-to guy, having set a career high versus Rutgers with 21 points. He's averaging 15.3 points per game while hitting 54 percent of his shots from the field. Duane Washington Jr. continues to struggle with his efficiency and decision-making about when and where to shoot, but he's leading the team with 15.4 points per game while shooting 36.9 percent from the field and 35 percent from behind the 3-point arc.
Justice Sueing (11.5 points per game) and CJ Walker (10.5 points per game) are ones to watch, too. Sueing's battled turnovers and adjusting to increased physicality lately, leading to him scoring in single digits for three of the past four games. It'll be important to get him going offensively given his talents attacking the rim.
The Wildcats are similarly balanced with six players averaging between nine and 15 points per game.
They're led by Boo Buie (6-2, 180), a sophomore guard who's six days removed from a 30-point outburst versus Michigan State. He's averaging a team-leading 14.5 points per game, shooting 44.8 percent from the floor and 50 percent from 3. Junior forward Miller Kopp (6-7, 215) and sophomore guard Chase Audige (6-4, 200) both have put up 13.8 points per game through six contests. Kopp is hitting more than 50 percent of his 3-point attempts, and Audige is attempting more than 12 shots per game while only hitting 23.5 percent of his 5.7 3-point attempts per game.
Junior 6-foot-10, 225-pound forward Pete Nance (10.7 points per game), freshman 6-foot-2, 190-pound guard Ty Berry (9.2 points per game) and sophomore 6-foot-10, 245-pound center Ryan Young (9 points per game) round out the other scorers to know on Collins' team.
On The Outside
It's no secret that Ohio State hasn't exactly been the most consistent 3-point shooting team, and nor has it defended the arc particularly well. It ranks 195th nationally by shooting 32.2 percent from 3-point range and 279th nationally with opponents draining 38.1 percent of their 3s.
Northwestern, which ranks top-three in the Big Ten in both categories, poses a huge challenge.
The Wildcats are 11th in the country, shooting 41.3 percent from behind the 3-point line. A ridiculous three of their top-five scorers – Buie, Kopp and Berry – are each hitting at least 50 percent of their 3-points attempts on a combined 12.8 attempts per game. That ability to knock down deep jumpers is the hallmark of their offense.
On the other side of the court, they've held opponents to shoot 27.9 percent from the outside. Indiana managed to go 7-of-18 in its loss, but Michigan State was just 8-of-31 from 3-point range.
Getting On The Glass
To beat the Wildcats on the road, Ohio State has to win on the offensive glass.
Northwestern, not a major threat for second-chance points, is 286th nationally with an offensive-rebounding rate of 21.9 percent that declines to 16.7 percent when zeroing in on just the games with Michigan State and Indiana. In that pair of conference games, the Spartans and Hoosiers comparatively had a 29 percent offensive-rebounding rate for themselves.
This is a game where Kyle Young's contributions on the glass will be huge, and he just happens to be coming off a game in which he snagged five offensive rebounds. Liddell could be similarly impactful down low versus Ryan Young and Nance.
Prediction: Ohio State 77, Northwestern 70
