Ohio State, in Chris Holtmann's inaugural season, is now sitting relatively pretty at 9-3 (soon to be 10-3 after they wax The Citadel, which has given up an average of 96 points in its last five games, and then probably 10-4 after they play North Carolina in New Orleans, and then also probably 11-4 after they get Miami of Ohio at home), and technically is first in the Big Ten, since the basketball Buckeyes have two wins against zero losses. Not bad.
It's also possibly not... anything.
I have talked and written in this space about how much I enjoy watching this team play. They're tough mentally and physically, and while they're prone to lapses of concentration or skill, in general Chris Holtmann has done a remarkable job at creating a team with a distinct identity in just a dozen games. Not only that, but they could frankly coast to a .500 finish the rest of the way with no postseason berth and I'd still be pretty okay with the memory of this season hanging on a ridiculous 20 point comeback win against Michigan.
But because of the fast start a lot of people are hoping for more than that, and while I share some of the enthusiasm (and the points that Chris made here), I also know that based on recent history, it might be wise to wait until the first few weeks of regular Big Ten play are complete before booking tickets to the Sweet Sixteen.
Last season is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. In the 2016-17 season, the Buckeyes started 10-3, with semi-convincing wins over the likes of Marshall and Jackson State and Connecticut. They also had two bad losses to UCLA and Florida Atlantic, and those games ended up being a better predictor of how the rest of the season would turn out. Matta's Buckeyes promptly lost their first four games once Big Ten play started, and limped their way to a 17-15 finish.
For those of you keeping track, that means that the team went 7-12 from January 1st, 2017 until the end of the campaign. Which is bad.
The 2013-14 season backs up the same point. That team led by LaQuinton Ross started the season 15-0 and worked its way to a No. 3 ranking nationally by the first week of January. By the first week of February they were no longer ranked, having lost five out of six games. They did manage to make the NCAA tournament, but were bounced in the first round by Dayton.
| G | Date | Opponent | Tm | Opp | OT | W | L | Streak | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat, Nov 9, 2013 | Morgan State | W | 89 | 50 | 1 | 0 | W 1 | ||
| 2 | Tue, Nov 12, 2013 | Ohio | W | 79 | 69 | 2 | 0 | W 2 | ||
| - | ||||||||||
| 12 | Sat, Dec 21, 2013 | N | Notre Dame | W | 64 | 61 | 12 | 0 | W 12 | |
| 13 | Fri, Dec 27, 2013 | Louisiana-Monroe | W | 71 | 31 | 13 | 0 | W 13 | ||
| 14 | Tue, Dec 31, 2013 | @ | Purdue | W | 78 | 69 | 14 | 0 | W 14 | |
| 15 | Sat, Jan 4, 2014 | Nebraska | W | 84 | 53 | 15 | 0 | W 15 | ||
| 16 | Tue, Jan 7, 2014 | @ | Michigan State (5) | L | 68 | 72 | OT | 15 | 1 | L 1 |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 12, 2014 | Iowa (20) | L | 74 | 84 | 15 | 2 | L 2 | ||
| 18 | Thu, Jan 16, 2014 | @ | Minnesota | L | 53 | 63 | 15 | 3 | L 3 | |
| 19 | Mon, Jan 20, 2014 | @ | Nebraska | L | 62 | 68 | 15 | 4 | L 4 | |
| 20 | Thu, Jan 23, 2014 | Illinois | W | 62 | 55 | 16 | 4 | W 1 | ||
| 21 | Wed, Jan 29, 2014 | Penn State | L | 70 | 71 | OT | 16 | 5 | L 1 |
Other times it works in reverse. In 2015-16 Ohio State won 21 games, but they were massive underachievers, getting bounced from both the Big Ten and NIT tournaments early, but most casual fans considered that an achievement after the team lost four straight to non-conference opponents near the beginning of the year.
In each of these seasons, Ohio State's overall fortunes were dictated by what they accomplished in January. While the men's basketball team has done a lot to exceed expectations, in the coming weeks they will have to avoid the pitfalls that have plagued a lot of squads in recent years. Assuming an 11-4 record going into the new year, the Buckeyes will be playing a packed January slate that will see them take on a few excellent teams, a decent amount of good teams, and maybe just one or two truly bad teams.
Of the nine games that Ohio State will play in January of 2018, the Buckeyes should hope to win five of them if they want to get a shot at the NCAA tournament this season. It's going to be a tall order, given that they have to play Michigan State, followed by Maryland, and then three consecutive road games against Rutgers, Northwestern, and Minnesota, but it's imperative that the Buckeyes rack up as many wins as possible before a brutal late season stretch that has road games against Purdue, Michigan, and Penn State.
It's a testament to Chris Holtmann and his staff that we're even entertaining the idea that in his first year, the Buckeyes could threaten to make the NCAA tournament after some really intense coaching and player turnover, but here we are: looking at another generally successful early season and hoping that the team can achieve more.
There is hope. Ohio State has already won two Big Ten games against what were considered to be some of the better teams in the conference, and that will definitely give them a boost against the likes of Michigan State and Purdue. If they can carry that momentum into the rest of the Big Ten conference schedule, Ohio State could turn into a contender that no one could have anticipated, especially people who have been watching for the past several years.
