Some candidates -
- History: Mario Cristobal has faced Ryan Day before, back in 2021 - and won. Day, as we have known for years, has a long memory and takes a lot of what happens in football personally.
- Ties: Ohio State has seven scholarship players from Florida who could have stayed home but did not, including three key starters: Leroy Roker (Fort Meyers), Brandon Inniss (Hollywood), Jeremiah Smith and Kenyatta Jackson (Miami Gardens), Jarquez Carter (Newberry), TJ Alford (Port Saint Lucie) and outgoing transfer Bryson Rodgers (Tampa).
- More Ties: Similarly, Miami has numerous players who were offered by the Buckeyes but chose the Canes. Luka Gilbert (Lakota West), Zach Carpenter (Moeller), Justin Scott (St. Ignatius) and Elias Rudolph (Taft) all have Ohio ties. Running back and team leader Mark Fletcher was committed to Ohio State but ultimately flipped to Miami.
- Even More Ties: Miami's RB coach Matt Merritt is a Capital and OSU graduate, and has a 2014 National Championship ring. He was on Urban Meyer's staff from 2013-15 and held a variety of roles - directly coaching players like Braxton Miller, Ezekiel Elliott, Curtis Samuel and Carlos Hyde.
- Lone Star Energy: The Canes will play their second straight game in Texas and third of the season, having lost at SMU in OT back in November before besting Texas A&M over the weekend. The Buckeyes have only one loss in their history in the state of Texas, having dropped the 2023 Cotton Bowl to Missouri.
- 13-10: Second consecutive season Ohio State enters the CFP having lost a game by this score. Last year, the Buckeyes proceeded to score more than 13 points in the 1st halves of all four playoff games.
- Breakthrough? Prior to the win at Texas A&M, Miami's only postseason wins since our final item below were wins in the 2016 Russell Athletic Bowl, 2006 MPC Computers Bowl, 2004 Peach Bowl and 2003 Orange Bowl. In that time period, the Hurricanes have lost 13 bowl games, failed to qualify for the postseason five times and have zero conference titles.
- 2002 BCS Title: Forever a unifier of the two programs. The Buckeyes broke the Hurricanes' 34-game winning streak and Miami hasn't been the same since. While only two players on Miami's roster were alive when that game was played - center Jake Brockermeyer and safety Jakobe Thomas were both seven months old - there isn't anyone associated with the program who doesn't know or seethe about how that evening went in Tempe.
So...what's the biggest X factor going into Arlington on New Year's Eve? Anything here, or maybe something else?
