I wrote this in the summer and wanted to post it because the only thing happening on Eleven Warriors was a bunch of complaining about recruiting.  Unfortunately, it took a long time to get registered and then I found out that I had to earn 100 helmet stickers before I could post.  Since it’s a bye week, I thought this would be a good time to post this.

The Big 10 commissioner, Tony Petitti, has proposed the following formula for a 16-team college football playoff:

Take the four conference champions from the BIG, SEC, ACC, and Big 12.

Take three more (based on CFP ranking) from both the BIG and the SEC.

Take one more (based on CFP ranking) from both the ACC and the Big 12.

Take the highest ranked conference champion outside of the BIG, SEC, ACC, and Big 12.

Take the three highest ranked teams that have not already been selected.

Seed the teams according to their CFP ranking.

Based on the CFP rankings for 2024, here is what would have happened in the CFP 2024-2025:

FIRST ROUND:

In this timeline, Oregon doesn’t sit an extra week and doesn’t face Ohio State in their first game.  Instead, they get a cupcake game against BYU (who was ranked #17 and jumped South Carolina to get in).  Even if Oregon is rusty, they work the kinks out by the second half and beat BYU.

Indiana wins its first-round game because Boise State is one-dimensional and Curt Cignetti and his staff are capable of coaching his team to stop Boise State and score points on them.

Miami scores several times against Penn State, but is incapable of stopping them.  Penn State runs the ball down Miami’s throat, controls the game clock, gets some stops on defense, and wins the game by 14 points.

One of the great things about letting a team like Arizona State into the playoffs is giving fans a chance to see players like Cam Skattebo, who is freakin’ awesome.  However, Notre Dame figures out how to contain him enough to win the game.

This timeline begins after the conference championships and before the playoffs begin.  Thus, it is still the case that Georgia must play without Carson Beck, their starting quarterback.  Clemson is the ACC conference champion, which just doesn’t mean that much, and Georgia still wins the game.

SMU is the highest ranked team in the ACC, which just doesn’t mean that much, and they lose to Tennessee.

Just like in the real timeline, Texas is rusty early in the playoffs.  They just barely beat Ole Miss in overtime.

Alabama lost to Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee.  They also lost to TCUN in some bowl game, but you can’t conclude much from that since neither the players nor the fans care about a bowl game that’s not part of the CFP.  The same OSU team that destroyed Tennessee in the real timeline shows up and blows out a weak Alabama team as the crowd chants S-E-C, S-E-C, S-E-C, …

ROUND TWO:

            In this timeline, Oregon had a tune-up game and is more prepared for their playoff game than in the real timeline.  Oregon beats Indiana (or blows out Boise State in another timeline).

            I’d like to say that in this timeline, Penn State decides to run the ball at the end of the game, instead of passing, and they beat Notre Dame.  However, in this timeline, James Franklin is still the head coach and Drew Allar is still the quarterback, so they try to pass, get intercepted, and lose to Notre Dame.  James and Drew flub it up in every timeline.  [Note:  this was written in summer 2025.]

            Georgia vs. Tennessee is a tough call because Georgia does not have their starting quarterback.  However, in this timeline, Gunner Stockton was able to win a playoff game against Clemson, gaining some experience.  The biggest factor in determining the outcome of the game is that in this timeline, Nico Iamaleava actually won a playoff game and had an even bigger head than in the real timeline.  Nico decided to hold his team hostage by demanding money in order to play, which caused enough bad juju in the locker room to cost his team the game.  Who would have thought that Georgia could win a game because they had a better culture?  I guess anything is possible if you have enough timelines.

            OSU beats Texas in this timeline as well.  Unfortunately, there is no scoop-and-score, because that play was one in a billion.

SEMI-FINALS:

            Oregon vs. Notre Dame is a tough call.  In this timeline, Oregon has had two fairly easy playoff games and are tuned-up and performing at, or near, their ceiling.  I think Oregon beats Notre Dame here.  For those of you that think I’m just being a Big 10 homer, let me remind you that Oregon beat Penn State soundly in the BIG championship and Penn State almost beat Notre Dame.  I don’t think that Notre Dame could get enough stops against Oregon’s offense or score enough points against their defense.

            Without Carson Beck, Georgia gets curb-stomped by OSU as bad or worse than Oregon did in the real timeline.  Revenge is sweet.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP:

            Oregon is much more prepared for this game than they were against OSU in the real timeline.  However, OSU only lost to Oregon by one point in Eugene, where the crowd definitely had an impact.  OSU is a better team, and although they don’t embarrass Oregon the way they did in the real timeline, they win the game comfortably.

Feel free to give your own scenario for how you think this tournament would have played out.

If you would like to discuss/debate things like whether the CFP should expand to 16 teams or what the criteria should be for selecting the teams, please comment on the thread https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/ohio-state-football/2025/10/158944/what-s-the-best-format-for-the-college-football-playoffs which is specifically for that.