The Big 10 commissioner, Tony Petitti, has proposed the following formula for a 16-team college football playoff:
Take the four conference champions from the BIG, SEC, ACC, and Big 12.
Take three more (based on CFP ranking) from both the BIG and the SEC.
Take one more (based on CFP ranking) from both the ACC and the Big 12.
Take the highest ranked conference champion outside of the BIG, SEC, ACC, and Big 12.
Take the three highest ranked teams that have not already been selected.
Seed the teams according to their CFP ranking.
The CFP rankings for the 2024-2025 playoffs were:
1. Oregon 10. SMU
2. Georgia 11. Alabama
3. Texas 12. Arizona State
4. Penn State 13. Miami
5. Notre Dame 14. Ole Miss
6. Ohio State 15. South Carolina
7. Tennessee 16. Clemson
8. Indiana 17. BYU
9. Boise State 18. Iowa State
Here is what would have happened in 2024-2025:
The only team ranked in the top 16 that would have been left out is #15 South Carolina. This is because #16 Clemson won the ACC and #17 BYU would be the second team from the Big 12, so they would bump South Carolina out of the playoffs. Both the ACC and Big 12 oppose the 4-4-2-2 model, but as you can see, it actually would have benefited them in 2024. If the third highest ranked ACC team hadn’t won the championship game, South Carolina would have made the playoffs and Clemson would have been bumped out, giving the SEC their desired 6 teams in the playoffs.
The SEC would have 5 teams in the playoffs: Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss.
The BIG would have 4 teams in the playoffs: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana.
The ACC would have 3 teams in the playoffs: SMU, Miami, Clemson.
The Big 12 would have 2 teams in the playoffs (with the 2nd team jumping a team to get in):
Arizona State, BYU.
The Mountain West would be represented by Boise State.
I disagree with the idea of guaranteeing a spot to a 5th conference champion. Last year, Boise State was ranked #9 and would have qualified for the playoffs based on their ranking.
Also, Notre Dame qualifies because of their #5 ranking.
The teams are seeded according to their ranking, so the fact that all 5 SEC teams are in the same half of the bracket is a fluke. There was some discussion in 2024 about whether the CFP selection committee should consider separating conferences in the bracket; however, the committee claimed that they ranked teams based solely on who they felt was the better team. This fluke (which actually would have happened) is good evidence that the committee might want to reconsider separating conferences within the bracket, even if they only intervene in a rare case like this.
I have the following questions about the CFP playoff format.
Should we expand the playoffs to 16 teams? 24 Teams? (This is also being discussed by the CFP.)
Should the CFP have a policy that allows them to make an adjustment if all 4 or 5 teams from one conference end up in the same half of the bracket (as would have happened last year)?
Should the CFP make sure that the teams who face each other in the conference championship game end up in opposite halves of the bracket? This way, they wouldn’t have to play each other again unless they both made the national championship game.
Should five conference champions get automatic bids? If the 5th conference champion is not one of the top 16 teams (or even top 24), should they really be given a playoff spot? Even the new Pac-12 is going to be made up of teams that are not currently ranked in the top 25.
Should the BIG insist on four guaranteed spots to make sure that their teams can play a non-conference game against a real opponent (like Texas, Alabama, Georgia) without hurting their chances of making the CFP? Remember that Ohio State actually finished 4th in the BIG last year and our non-conference schedule was all cupcakes.
If Notre Dame, Boise State, or any team in the ACC or Big 12 played a BIG schedule last year, what would their record be? Remember that Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois last year. Last year, some pundits were calling a win over Syracuse a “quality” win in the ACC. Syracuse was Klye McCord with a much, much worse offense and defense than the 2023 OSU team. Some pundits were even referring to wins over Army and Navy as “quality” wins.
The SEC and the ACC have finally agreed to play a 9-game conference schedule, so this should help reduce some of the problems with the CFP rankings.
What criteria should the CFP be using when ranking teams whose schedules do not contain any playoff caliber opponents? What if a team has a schedule where every game is against a weak opponent, except for one, and that is their only loss? This regularly happens to an ACC team, a Big 12 team, and Notre Dame (2 losses this year). It also happened to Indiana last year and probably will happen to Texas A&M this year. Also, strength of schedule is a tricky thing. At the beginning of this year, OSU had a very tough schedule; but, by the end of this year, it will probably be an extremely easy schedule with no playoff caliber teams on it (except in the BIG championship game).
If you would like to make predictions about how the 16-team bracket would have played out, please go to the thread https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/ohio-state-football/2025/10/158943/alternate-timeline-what-if-we-had-tony-petitti-s-16-team-bracket-last-year where I posted a (hopefully) humorous alternate timeline scenario where the 16-team bracket was played in 2024-2025.
