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Dealing with Injuries in the 12-team Playoff Era

+3 HS
OSUGrad2014's picture
January 1, 2023 at 4:02am
31 Comments

Injuries are already a huge factor in game outcomes, especially when teams have similar levels of talent. Alabama handily beat Georgia last year when John Metchie and Jameson Williams were healthy, but after losing both to injuries, they could not win again in the national championship game. Watching that game, it was clear that missing those 2 receivers was decisive. Tonight, losing Marvin Harrison Jr. was a game-changing blow to the OSU offense. And it's easy to forget that USC probably beats Utah if Caleb Williams isn't hobbled. A big injury helped get OSU into the playoff.    

Injuries will only loom larger in the future with 12-team 4 round playoffs adding up to 2 difficult games to a potential champion's schedule. I have not analyzed the data, but it seems to me that injuries tend to occur in big games with more on the line, when players are most intense. Every playoff game will have a lot on the line, and participating players will be at heightened risk of injury. Through 3 or 4 games, attrition due to injury could be a massive factor towards deciding the eventual surviving national champion. Teams will need to adjust to the 4 round playoff era by being more concerned about the potential for injuries to derail their season, and taking some actions to adapt to a world where injuries will be a bigger factor. 

Teams should study, using data analytics and other sports science methods, the relationship between every type of play call and the injuries they lead to. Plays that have an unusually high probability of getting your own team's players injured should be devalued, and sometimes, in must-win games such as OSU-Mich, plays more likely to lead to injuries for opponents should be increased in value. 

I think OSU is ahead of its time in preserving quarterback health with CJ Stroud not being asked to run until a national championship was within reach. Unfortunately, player preservation at other positions still needs improvement, especially at running back and wide receiver. After seeing numerous high-profile injuries to star players throughout college football this year (Hendon Hooker, Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison, Travis Dye, Blake Corum, Bo Nix, Quinn Ewers, Tyler Buchner, are just a few names) I don't believe teams are doing enough to mitigate the threat of injuries. While physically dangerous plays might have helped their teams win some games, it's uncertain whether they are necessary. A single dangerous play that injures a key player can change a season. The injury risks of dangerous plays should be taken seriously, and the risk/reward should be questioned.

Beyond injury analytics and putting more effort into preserving the health of their top players, teams looking to make a deep playoff run will need more depth. In an NIL marketplace, this would mean hesitating to invest a lot in expensive individual stars, and recruiting more for quality depth. If you invest a lot in a star and they can't play in the end because of an injury, your chances of winning a national championship drop substantially. Quality depth, if you have it, can increase your chances of winning a 4 round playoff. 

It was sad to watch OSU lose to Georgia because of a key injury. I hope increased attention towards injuries leads to improved avoidance of injuries and fewer losses resulting from injuries in the future, at least for teams that don't wear Maize&Blue.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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