I don't know about any of you, but I could barely sleep last night. 1969 The Game, 1970/1 Rose Bowl, 1975/6 Rose Bowl, the losses to that team in the 1990s, 2006/7 BCS national championship, 2015 MSU game, 2016 Fiesta Bowl, but I don't think a loss has ever hurt (to me) as much as that loss last night. With all of those other losses, bad coaching, bad execution, or both (usually) were the cause. Last night, sure there were some coaching calls I could question, some lack of execution certainly, but all in all, it was a well played game by the Buckeyes, and it hurts more than any of the others. Take just one of THE plays in that game - JK holding onto the TD pass, Browning not making the wrong read on the Lawrence TD run, Wade keeping his helmet up, the refs not overturning Fuller's scoop and score, the staff not calling for a punt block, Olave not breaking off his route, and we are still celebrating today. The bottom line is the Buckeyes deserved that win, and the analytics prove it, but so did Clemson. It was one of those games.
I predicted the Buckeyes needed to match their season average YPC and at least 90% of their season average YPA. I felt this would equate to roughly 504-528 yards total offense and 31-38 points. The Buckeyes did neither, but they amassed 516 total yards (99 more yards than Clemson) on 85 plays. During the season, the Buckeyes averaged 5.2 YPC, which was 162% of their opponents' defenses' YPC and 9.4 YPA, 158% of their opponents' defenses YPA. Against Clemson, the Buckeyes rushed for 5.02 YPC, which was an incredible 167% of what Clemson's D gave up on the ground this season and threw for 6.9 YPA, 135% of what Clemson's D gave up through the air this season. The Buckeyes didn't perform as well as I thought they needed to, but they certainly performed well enough to win, and far better than any Clemson opponent (probably going back two seasons).
On defense, I predicted the Buckeyes had to hold Clemson to 4.6 YPC (75% of their season avg YPC) and 7.7 YPA (90% of their season avg YPA). I felt this would equate to roughly 454 total yards for Clemson and 28-35 points. The Buckeye D came through in the air, as Clemson threw for 7.8 YPA, but Clemson killed us on the ground, rushing at a 5.9 YPC clip or 211% of what our D gave up YPC on the ground on average this season. Still, Clemson only gained 417 total yards on 60 plays - 99 fewer total yards and 25 fewer plays! Still, no turnovers, and I think only one or two bad penalties (PI calls).
99 more yards!!! That should account for 7 more points, but analytics doesn't account for turnovers, bad penalties, and bad referees.
