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NoVAsmitty


MEMBER SINCE   May 08, 2018

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Comment 29 Aug 2020

I think it’s the new rapid saliva test and maybe now they know when enough of those tests will be available and they want a Fall semester on campus, which ends weekend before Thanksgiving, and then bubble time. Big Ten, regardless of how horrible this was handled, has been playing chess and the other three were playing checkers. Not surprising when it was the SEC, Big 12, and half of the ACC. 

Comment 29 Aug 2020

I agree. Point out the failure or hypocrisy of both sides. How can that be political, especially when a Mod takes one side in a thread. But you know what they say about those who make the rules. I don’t think you said anything political, but I saw a guy say something about the two sides of the same coin the other day and poof. Same rules aren’t applied by the Mods to the Mods. 
 

Just be careful. 
 

But if there was a thread to go political, this one would be it. The Mods would have to ban about everyone and the site traffic would, let’s just say, be affected and ownership would need to hire new Mods. 
 

FREEDOM!

/s

Comment 13 Jul 2020

A lot of evidence, circumstantial or not, points to it escaping (walking out on someone’s shoe) from a Wuhan bio lab. Something that hasn’t gotten enough attention is Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. Given their locations, why is it so surprising how prepared they were and successful to date?  They’ve got thousands of years with China as a neighbor and suffered with SARS.  Guess how many deaths Vietnam has had?  Zero. 
 

We better learn and be prepared for the next pandemic. The Twentieth Century was the century of physics. The Twentyfirst will be the century of biology. 

Comment 13 Jul 2020

Long, but good, article. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

Herd immunity.  As low as 20% of a specific population, but maybe as high as 70%.  New York City is probably more important to watch than Miami or Houston.  I guess roughly 25% of the NYC population has antibodies and it's one place where the numbers are trending favorable.  The thing is developing herd immunity isn't throw caution to the wind and live free or die.  It's still acting responsible.  Sweden admits to its failures (i.e., mostly not keeping their elderly safer), but they didn't just say "go on and party like it's 1999 and what happens, happens."  I think the key difference, and I hope this doesn't take this thread in the wrong direction, the people of Sweden actually trust their government.  So when the government says "do this, don't do that," the Swedes tend to follow.  In the US, whether your are extreme right or extreme left and most in between, no one trusts government - local, state, federal.  That's a problem.  

20% of the US population is 64 million.  As of today, per Johns Hopkins, the US is at 3.353 million cases, plus the asymptomatic.  But it's specific locations that matter.  NYC, Chicago, Columbus, rural county in NW Ohio or South Dakota, etc. 

As usual, probably based on the last sentence to my second paragraph, this country takes the half measure approach.  I think back in March we had a choice.  Either lock down or go Sweden.  We chose lock down, but having done that, we probably should have chosen the Chinese model at least for those locations (states, cities) of a certain population density.  I mean, you are going to destroy some or many businesses whether you lock down for a month or three months, if you do it you better make sure you don't have to do it again.  Based on how long Wuhan was locked down, mid-June was probably the right time to re-open at least for the urban areas, but you can't have travel to and from.  

I don't know  I don't know what to think anymore.  It's just one big cluster fuck.       

Comment 13 Jul 2020

I'd hate to be the scheduler.

I don't think a 10 game season is possible.  All it will do is equal out the home/away schedule.  Currently, OSU has 5 home, 4 away games.  The main problem with a 10 game season is it eliminates an important bye week.  I still think the schedule needs to be two on, one off to help address positive tests for OSU or the next opponent.  Plus, having two on, one off adds in the flexibility.  Say, OSU has a bye on 9/19 and is healthy, but Illinois is playing Purdue and Illinois has some positive tests.  A healthy OSU could then be scheduled to play a healthy Purdue on what otherwise would be a bye.  And I also think a 10 game schedule forces a rematch against a division foe, assuming travel is a major concern.  Just thinking out loud.

I think the 10th game should only be either a 4 team playoff on 12/5 with CCG on 12/12 or just the East winner and West winner get the 10th game.    

The other key I think is no team should be scheduled to have two straight away games.  As it currently stands, if the order of the OSU schedule remains the same with some bye weeks thrown in, they'd still have two straight away games vs. MSU and PSU and then again vs MD and IL.  

I would also get rid of the Nebraska game and schedule a home game against Purdue or Northwestern.  Both are West teams and the last time OSU played them, we played at their stadiums.  I think this is another reason why a 10 game season isn't possible.  I'm not sure even with a 9 game season that the scheduler can avoid Nebraska, Minny, Wisky playing PSU, Rutgers, Maryland.  

Comment 11 Jul 2020

But you can plant carrots, butternut and other squash, spinach, potatoes, a variety of leafy greens, cauliflower, broccoli, zucchini, all sorts of stuff. Read up on when to plant a fall garden where you live. Potatoes and carrots should already be I the ground, but a lot of the other stuff only takes 60-90 days from planting to harvest. 

Comment 11 Jul 2020

As someone who played at a “rinky dink” D3 school, I did it for the love of the game and being from a small town I was intimidated by a large university. Most of us were a few inches too short and a step too slow for D1, but my best game in HS I put up 29 points and 20 rebounds against a future NBA all-star. Pierre Garçon, Cecil Shorts, London Fletcher, Kenny Anderson are a few D3 to have good careers in the NFL. I remember when Ohio Northern upset Oklahoma in basketball. I doubt Ohio State could have beaten Marietta in baseball in the late 70s/early 80s. Did you play on an intramural champion or something?

Got a solid undergrad education that I was able to parlay into a top 15 grad school. 

Comment 11 Jul 2020

This is also how I see it playing out.  Saban will try to coach another 10 years, maybe longer ala Paterno, Bowden.  One more national championship for him in the next 2-4 years and then the decline will begin in earnest and end in some kind of scandal brought on by an assistant, boosters, etc. after he's lost the ability to manage and control his program.  Saban also doesn't strike me as a Stoops or Meyer and willing to admit an assistant is as good or even better than him and ready to take over.  

Dabo turns 51 later this year.  If Saban coaches another 10, that means he's 61 with probably two or more national championships or a scandal of his own.  Cristobal turns 50 in December, same for Venables, and Pruitt will be 56 in 10 years.  If Pruitt lasts 10 years at Tennessee, that means he's done well.  I like the Venables suggestion as a dark horse, but I think both he and Cristobal will be head coaches elsewhere by then.     

Comment 10 Jul 2020

I don’t care about bowls or CFP. Let’s kickoff on 9/5 and go from there. We got a month in of voluntary work outs.  That’s a start.  Good move to shut it down. Gives an idea of how this going to go. Come back in two weeks. 
 

Im loving the SEC reaction. Keep ignoring/denying the science bubbas. We might get a nine game season. You might have 75% of your teams infected at various points between now and December fools. 

Comment 10 Jul 2020

I agree, but hard to say. A lot depends on Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern to start. Will they cancel their entire seasons. 
 

The scheduler has his/hers/theirs/it’s hands full  I was thinking a 2 games on, bye, repeat schedule, and could get nine games in before December starting 9/5, but there’s so much unknown that could happen. 
 

I’m sure Coach Day, the staff, and players don’t care. Just tell us who and where and we’ll be ready to rumble.  

Comment 09 Jul 2020

This is the best news in a long time. The scheduling flexibility is huge. At a minimum, it shows the conference wants to have a season. As I laid out on the other thread, two games on, bye, two games on, bye, and so on. Nine conf games as usual. Buckeyes get 10 with the last against some other team from the West. That works. Gotta stay positive men. 

Comment 09 Jul 2020

I called it that Big Ten would go to only conference games.  I also said there will be no fans and that the Oregon game wouldn't be played (called those back in April).  I'm sticking with a glass half full and think this is what they'll try and schedule:  two games on, bye; repeat.  Stick with nine game conference schedule.  It might work.

Play 9/5, play 9/12; bye 9/19; play 9/26, play 10/3; bye 10/10; play 10/17, play 10/24; bye 10/31; play 11/7, play 11/14; bye 11/21; play 11/28; B1G CG 12/5.  

Comment 08 Jul 2020

Man this is another kick in the nuts. 
 

Someone up there needs to collect the Ohio/Franklin County data. I’m trying to still see the glass half full, but it’s getting grim. A TN case perspective. I was tracking daily TN and major county, including my county, cases, deaths, hospitalizations, daily % increases in cases statewide and my county through 5/31. Got to be too much, so I shifted just to weekly increases in cases and deaths for TN and my county starting 6/1. Bad news:  over the last 4 weeks TN and county cases have been skyrocketing. TN cases increased over 12,000 in the last week By comparison, from 3/5 (TN’s first case) to 4/30 or 8 weeks, TN had a total of roughly 10,700 cases. But here’s the thing, on 4/30 TN had a mortality rate (deaths/positive cases) of 2.2%. On 4/30 TN had a hospitalization rate of 12%. Today, despite the blow up in positive cases over the last 4 weeks, the mortality rate is 1.2% (and deaths lag roughly by 14’days). More importantly, hospitalization rate is down to 5%, down from 6% last week, down from 7% two weeks ago. More info:  43% of all cases from the start are in the 21-40 age group. 63% of deaths are 71 and over; increases to 82% age 61 and over. 
 

Despite the numbers, beyond age, co-morbidities, avoiding crowds, wearing masks, being healthy, practicing sensible hygiene, I think a lot has to do with population density, but I think that has more to do with socio economic factors than it does with Columbus being one of the 20 largest cities and Ohio State being one of the largest universities.   
 

Im still holding out hope, but right now I predict the season doesn’t start until the Rutgers game or Cincy or a MAC team that Saturday. 

Comment 08 Jul 2020

Deaths to positive cases.  I'm not up to speed on the 10X positive cases and whether that is or is not "accepted."  The point I was trying to make is percentages get thrown around, but one still needs to apply them to the numbers to get a true picture.  16% sounds like a lot, but 16% of 6% is an entirely different number.

The fatality rate I used (deaths/positive cases) of 1.2% is noteworthy for TN in another regard.  I was tracking my county's and TN's statewide fatality rate back in April.  Again, deaths to positive cases.  That rate actually got up to 2.2% statewide in late April.  The last three weeks, and most likely this week as well, has seen a consistent and substantial spike in positive cases (probably for multiple reasons), but the hospitalization rate has been remaining around 6%.  Back in April, it was closer to 10%-11% in TN.  The fatality rate was also 2.2% back in April, but 1.2% now despite TN having 10,735 cases on April 30, but 53,514 cases as of yesterday.  

I'm reading today about AZ, FL, TX hospitals and ICUs becoming overwhelmed.  Same we saw for New Orleans and New York City back in the Spring.  But I'm also seeing a substantial spike in cases in TN now, but mortality rate is less and hospitalization rate is less than back when there were 5X fewer cases.  I think localities, demographics, socio-economics have a lot more to do with hospitalizations and mortality rates than we realize.  I think regardless of age (but you need to be careful if you are like me age 58), as long as you are reasonably healthy, not obese, don't live in a nursing home or prison, don't work at a meatpacking plant, don't frequent crowded bars or beaches, wear a mask, wash your hands, use hand sanitizer, don't attend funerals or weddings, don't go to your neighbor's back yard barbecue party, and don't use public transportation, you stand a pretty good chance.    

Comment 08 Jul 2020

*edited/corrected:  based on the 16% lung damage estimate, less than 1% of those hospitalized have suffered permanent lung damage (but tell that to the 514 and their families). Based on deaths to infections, 1.2% of those infected have died, which consistently has been the TN fatality rate since the first death on 3/20/20. 

Comment 08 Jul 2020

The US surpassed 3 million cases since the start of the pandemic (1/22/2020) through yesterday, not 3 million new cases over the last week plus. If it was 3 million new cases in a week, a college football season would be far, far from top of our list of worries.  US reported over 44,000 new cases yesterday. 
 

Regarding the permanent lung damage, I think that is way too often overlooked, especially by the young. But it depends on how one looks at it. For example, as of yesterday TN had 53,514 cases since 3/5/20. At a 6% hospitalization rate that’s 3,211 hospitalized. If 16% of hospitalized recover but with permanent lung damage (and I’ve seen similar percentages quoted elsewhere), that’s 514 Tennesseans to date. One could look at that number and think “damn 514 (and counting) is a lot of people” (especially if your son, daughter or favorite college football player is one of the 514).  Another person could look at that number and say, “to date, less than 1% of Tennesseans have suffered permanent lung damage and only 1.2% of those hospitalized died.”

Comment 07 Jul 2020

Probably wishful thinking on my part, but I think there are key differences between canceling the NCAA and conference B-ball tournies and football.  Then vs now - early stage (lots more unknowns, hospitals being overwhelmed and “don’t wear masks”). B-ball is played indoors. Tens of thousands of fans traveling around the country and congregating in multiple cities/arenas and then traveling back home only to do it again the following week. Funny, I know, who woulda thunk Spring Break, funerals, Mardi Gras, etc could pose problems. 
 

With that said, there won’t be fans, we aren’t playing Oregon this season, and probably only a 9-10 games season  

Comment 06 Jul 2020

Thanks John.  Good Grief, love me some FF.  Sort of like me, Warren via Springfield, VA. Emphasis on sort of.
 

A note on the other thread. Wasn’t able to reply re buried my heart. You reminded me, though, to take my 1972 paperback off the office book shelf. Still prefer Diamond over Brown, despite the atrocities, BIA, and the G.  Point taken nonetheless.