NoVAsmitty's picture

NoVAsmitty


MEMBER SINCE   May 08, 2018

Recent Activity

Comment 35 minutes ago

The saying is an ounce of gold should buy you one head of beef cattle or a very fine men’s suit. An ounce of silver should buy you 5-6 loaves.   You are right though. Silver has more day to day uses  I also like the sound and feel. Those down votes. Hmm. Must be some modern monetary theorists amongst us. 

Comment 23 Mar 2020

Not sure you can look at it as 1% of positive tests is the mortality rate.  The key are the real cases, not positive tests.  The real cases drive the infection rate, which drive the hospitalizations, which overwhelms the health care system and you end up with a Wuhan or Italy and a 6-7% mortality rate.  Check any state and the date of its first death.  Count back 13-17 days (those are the CDC and other estimates of time delay from infection to death).  I agree that the rule of thumb mortality rate is 1% (but that has only been achieved when the health care system hasn't been overwhelmed).  So, first patent dies.  Count back 13 days and how many positive tests on that day.  For a 1% mortality rate, there must have been at least 100 positive cases.  In most states, that's not the case.  In most situations, there were no positive cases day of death minus 13/17.  New York, for example.  First positive case was 3/1  First death was March 13 IIRC.  That means that patient was infected between 2/27 and 3/1.  A 1% mortality rate means there were 100 other positives on the day he/she got infected, not only one positive on 3/1.  

Comment 21 Mar 2020

Sorry, I meant to add.  I think the chart is off on the testing.  TN has tested more, as it is also using commercial labs.  The tests shown on the chart are the ones done by the TN Dept of Health.  Commercial labs have done another 300+.  But still, as a percentage of population KY has done more tests.  TN has roughly a 34% greater population than KY, but has only done roughly 24% more tests. 

Comment 21 Mar 2020

Would love a link to this chart.  Been tracking TN, Davidson County (Nashville) and Williamson County cases (TN's epicenter, but Shelby County (Memphis) is now starting to catch up to Williamson).  Davidson County is going to be in bad, bad shape a week from now if not sooner.  Davidson cases have gone from 17 last Sunday to 140 as of 2pm CDT today.  

Franklin, TN finally closed bars and restaurants and gyms last night.  Brentwood, TN not until 6pm CDT today (these are the two most affluent zip codes in TN).  They are asking the Spring Breakers to self-isolate for 14 days, but they've been gone at the beach and most likely don't have any food at home and certainly no TP.  I need to make one more grocery run, but not this weekend with those people flocking to the stores.  I think Tuesday is when the shipments come in.  Have plenty stocked up at home, just need to get some essentials.  Nashville still hasn't closed restaurants!  Just limited capacity.  Bars are closed, but I'm not sure if that's mandatory or just voluntary.  Gyms finally ordered closed yesterday.  Absolute stupidity and this area is going to pay dearly.  

Comment 21 Mar 2020

Does anyone have any articles or heard discussions from experts as to whether there is a threshold level of confirmed cases that, when reached, lock down/shelter in place orders should issue?  I’m wondering if there’s any thinking from the experiences in Wuhan, Lombardy, and now New York. 

Comment 21 Mar 2020

Very good points.  Those countries, states, cities that clamp down early fare much better.  Those that delay, pay a heavy price.

The only quibble that I have is the curve looks the same for every country, state, city.  I've been tracking TN confirmed cases since 3/5 (first confirmed case) and it looks identical.  Counting just odd-numbered days starting 3/5 TN cases have gone from 1 to 3, 4, 9, 26, 39, 73, 154.  263 today and the first death.  And all the Spring Breakers returned today after FL closed the beaches.  

Comment 20 Mar 2020

Read this article about a week ago, and it resonated with me. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca  It's a long read.

The key is not the confirmed cases, it's the real cases.  The "real cases" are the confirmed + those infected with no symptoms + those infected with mild symptoms + those infected with worsening systems but they haven't been tested yet.  It's why once testing gets expanded, confirmed cases explode.  You don't really know how big of a problem you have unless you can reasonably estimate the number of real cases you have, even though you are only testing a percentage of the real.  In the article, the author shows with charts and discussion how China figured this out, but not until mid/late January.  It's the real cases that drive infections and that heighten the curve and eventually overwhelm the health care system and lead to deaths.    

How do you figure out how many real cases you have?  The author theorizes, you need the first death.  Wuhan's mortality rate was something like 6-7%.  Same for Italy.  But that's mainly because of late reaction the problem got out of control fast (this is a very infections virus.  Seasonal flu has a R1.3 where Covid-19 is somewhere R2.2 or higher, which means for every person infected they infect 2.2 or more others and so on.  The infection rate is logarithmic.)  Outside of Hubei province (Wuhan) the rest of mainland China had a mortality rate of 0.9% (seasonal flu is 0.1%, but those are really deaths of neglect.)  If you can manage the infection rate, as the rest of mainland China was able to do by locking down Hubei province, which will be by social distancing (or lockdowns), figure a mortality rate of 1%.  But you need the first death to know how many real cases existed when that person got infected.  

I've seen two time-delay estimates of infection to death.  In this article he says on average 17.3 days from infection to death.  In a CDC study I read 13 days.  Today Tennessee had its first death.  That means the person was infected 13-17 days ago, at which time Tennessee had 1 confirmed case (not this guy).  Seventeen days ago, TN had no confirmed cases.  Using a 1% mortality rate, what this means is TN did not have 1 case 13 or 17 days ago.  That would mean the mortality rate is 100%.  Instead, it means TN had 100 real cases 13-17 days ago, when testing confirms only 1 case.  What this means is once testing is expanded, confirmed cases explode.  But even with expanded testing, the real cases are still under-counted, and infections continue to increase.  This is why social distancing is so fucking critical.  Otherwise, you end up with Wuhan, Italy, and now most of Europe and New York City.  In every single case, they moved far too slow to impose social distancing and the next step of lockdowns don't appear to be working in Italy and hopefully weren't too late for New York City, but I think the decision was a week late at least.  

The next stage is upon us.  Ohio and Michigan moved comparatively quickly to close bars, restaurants, gyms, etc.  Impose social distancing.  New York State and City delayed.  The EU completely dropped the ball and finally closed external borders this week, but still open borders within the Schengen zone.  That's the same as the US, however.  Anyone in New York City or Seattle or San Francisco if they want to can get on a flight (or drive) to Columbus or Nashville or Little Rock.  I think we avoid the calamity.  Our federal, state, and local governments have a long history of working together in crises.  Europe is going to kill themselves over treaties.  New York City, however, really worries me.  And other states, like where I live, that wait too long to do something until it's too late.  

I've heard predictions that 50% of Americans get infected.  That's 160 million people.  At a 1% mortality rate, that's 1.6 million people.  That's more than have died in all American wars combined.  

Comment 20 Mar 2020

I see where the NY governor just ordered a "lock down."  Everyone must stay home, businesses fined, etc.  I'm sure people are allowed to go to the grocery store, pharmacy.  There will be more of this.  There needs to be.  Have to flatten the curve.  

In Tennessee, the age group with the largest number of confirmed cases is age 21-30.  85% of all confirmed cases are age 21-49.  Working, playing, socializing.  Returning from Spring Break.  I checked out the Georgia Dept of Health website and Georgia has a similar age break down.  Most other states probably do as well.

Comment 20 Mar 2020

“Playing the victim”?  No I don’t think so. I hope none of us are a victim. Enough food, ammo, and, yes, toilet paper stockpiled to last a year won’t prevent anyone from being the victim of a pandemic, natural disaster, MS-13 gang, etc. The question posed by the OP was would he be [immoral, unethical, unloving] to not share what he had stockpiled in preparation for what he accurately foresaw occurring, in this case extra TP. Now I’d give up the TP In his case.  Humans have survived 20,000 or more years without it. But it’s a lesson.  Look at how people are reacting to empty TP aisles. If that doesn’t resonate with you, I hope it doesn’t go Sarajevo on you for your sake. 
 

Comment 20 Mar 2020

I know. My oldest lives in LA. But she also knows that food doesn’t come from grocery stores. 

Comment 19 Mar 2020

No. That’s where you are wrong. In that hypothetical, they made the decision, not me. 

Comment 19 Mar 2020

It’s not my stash, and it’s not much of a stash unfortunately. Enough to hunker down with. It’s my family’s stash. 
 

Instead of calling someone crazy for having done what some of you never considered doing, you know just in case, and getting all hot and bothered that there isn’t any TP at the Kroger, you should be asking yourselves  why has all the ammo been bought out?  I went to my local Bass Pro the other day to get some turkey loads. The parking lot was normal. Went inside and it was a ghost town. That was until I got to the ammo section. It was a madhouse and nothing left on the shelves. Not a fucking box of 9mm, 45 ACP, .38, rifle ammo. No turkey loads, upland game shot, .22. Nothing. Same thing at Academy Sports.  And everywhere else.  Gone. Just like TP, eggs, Hamburg, etc.  People buying guns who obviously had never bought a gun before.  “What do you mean, a background check.”  That’s crazy. I’ve already got 1500 rounds of .223, plenty of 9MM and .300 WSM for my deer/elk rifle, and enough 12 gauge and 20 gauge. I just needed some turkey loads but even those were gone. 
 

Fucking governor of California just locked down the entire state. Who’s prepared out there and who isn’t?  That’s crazy. 
 

I know it sounds crazy, but we now find ourselves living in extraordinary times. I really hope this is over in 8 weeks, but it won’t be over in 2. This pandemic started in China last mid-November. They appear to have gotten control 4 months later. Maybe. 9-11 and Katrina had a big effect on me. My wife rolled her eyes at this kind of talk. Heck, it caused big time arguments. She’s not arguing or rolling her eyes now. 

Comment 19 Mar 2020

Buying extra canned food, toilet paper, bleach, etc. in the event of an emergency isn't hoarding.  I'm down to the last two containers of disinfectant wipes that I have.  I bought those several years ago for this reason.  I've got an N95 mask for every member of my family.  I bought those several years ago for this reason.  I've got 12 rolls of TP, some aluminum foil, a bunch of freeze dried food, and other stuff that I bought many years ago for this reason.  I used to be a major prepper, but not that major.  I had probably 6 months worth of food, but then we moved and I gave most of it away to the local food bank where we moved from.  I wasn't a hoarder, I was prepared for this reason.  A pandemic was the #1 reason in my book to be prepared.  I started buying  extra at the grocery store back in mid-February.  Publix BOGO works very well for this reason.  I prepare.  I don't hoard.

One can read accounts of those in Argentina, Sarajevo, Baghdad, and other places.  There are people who prepare and people who don't, including loved ones.  Those accounts will inform those who prepare that a day could come when their siblings and friends show up asking for "just a little of what you've prepared for."  At that moment, you have to look at your wife and kids and ask yourself the question, do I want them to live or do I want my siblings and friends to live?  We all reap what we sow.    

Comment 11 Mar 2020

Didn’t listen. Don’t need to. 
 

For every young, healthy person out there, yes those air fares to Hawaii etc are cheaper than they’ll ever be again. You’ve got a choice, for now, hunker down and do your part or be selfish, become a carrier, and spread the infection and prolong (and I’m sure you’ll cry and complain when you aren’t allowed to return). 

Comment 11 Mar 2020

I think we are still in the early stages of this [epidemic? pandemic?] in the US.  I don't think we can trust the numbers from China.  The mortality rate could be worse.  When the outbreak started in Italy I thought OK now we'll start to learn something.  But 25% of the population of Italy is over age 65 and their mortality rate has been 8%.  This really is hitting that age demographic, but I don't think it's that simple to say "oh, I'm 45 so I don't have to worry."  Is it that those over 60 have more underlying health conditions?  Might be.  I read a statistic where something like 65% of Chinese males over age 60 still smoke, and the fatality rate for those guys was something like 80% whereas something like less than 5% of Chinese females over 60 smoke so the fatality rate for that demographic was something like 2%.  What does seem very obvious at this point is when the virus gets a toehold in a place, whether Wuhan, Lombardy, Washington state, New Rochelle, NY, Diamond Princess, Grand Princess, the infections and deaths explode.  So this supports DeWine's decision.  I heard an infectious disease expert yesterday say if you are over 50 with an underlying medical condition - diabetes, obesity, hypertension, cancer, other respiratory condition (including smoker of anything), heart disease, kidney disease, asthma, or compromised immune system - avoid any crowd.  That means sporting events, public transportation, church, airplanes, cruise ships, nursing homes, office buildings(?), stores(?).  The list goes on and on.

This thing has an infection rate of R2, and that's where the focus needs to be, not the mortality rate. Late last week, we had our patient zero in middle TN.  On Monday, that went to 2 infections (in approx 3 days) in the same county.  Now TN Dept of Health won't say which county any new infections occur in, isn't that interesting.  But I expect in another 2-3 days, it will be 4, then 8, 16, 32, and by April 1 or 2, that could grow to 712 infections and if the mortality rate is between 1.5% to 3.5% that's 10-25 deaths in a month.  That's a lot.  But what worries me the most is how long until the US health care system breaks down under the strain, not enough hospital beds to care for those who need hospitalization (which is what happened in China and elsewhere), nurses and doctors getting infected, and it's not like people will stop having strokes, heart attacks, accidents, tonsilectomies, or other conditions requiring hospitalization.  Soon elective surgeries will be postponed indefinitely.   

It seems to me right now we are managing panic.  We aren't managing a viral epidemic/pandemic.  Hoarding toilet paper?  Come on, this isn't cholera.  With more test kits coming, we'll see more infections.  With an R2, we aren't getting ahead of this anytime soon, which is exactly what has happened in these "nodes", whether Wuhan, Lombardy, Seattle, New Rochelle, or the cruise ships.  Too much focus on mortality, when the problem is infection rate, and the debates in DC about interest rate cuts and economic stimulus is fucking moronic on both sides.  That's just more managing panic.  I applaud DeWine.  Something needs to be done, but it's only happening locally now, and it won't be effective. 

This race just started in this country, and we are behind and dithering.      

Comment 04 Mar 2020

I haven't listened to a classic rock radio station since maybe 2001, if not earlier.  I'm solely Spotify now and before that SXM.  However, I do rock on the 8 track, but the only Springsteen is Darkness on the Edge of Town or earlier.  That Nebraska sucks!  Puts me to sleep.

Comment 02 Mar 2020

You know, I agree.  But I feel at this point we've been saying this for 10 years.  But Tuf is steady, smart, good tackler.  Leader.  

I think it's funny how we all seem to be jumping to conclusions after ONE SPRING PRACTICE about multiple positions on both sides of the ball.  Man are we starved for OHIO STATE FOOTBALL OR WHAT?!?!  Unfortunately, Spring Practice is the amuse-bouche.