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NoVAsmitty


MEMBER SINCE   May 08, 2018

Recent Activity

Comment 19 Apr 2019

I think we all need to cut the kid some slack.  The public statement Baldwin issued, his demeanor, and how he handled the QB competition this Spring tells me he's not some entitled kid.  I hope everything is well with him and his family and wish him the best wherever he transfers.

Look, the kid is what 19 years old?  The average college freshman retention rate is around 66% to 78%.  That means on average 1/4 to 1/3 of freshmen transfer to another school.  Now, Matthew Baldwin is not your typical college freshman, but he's still of that age.  I speak from experience.  My two oldest both transferred after their freshman years.  The oldest insisted she "isn't going to school in some little college town."  After a sophomore stint at community college, she graduated from a "school in some little college town."  My next insisted she wanted to go the college "where all my friends are going."  She also transferred "sick and tired of all these idiots I went to high school with."  She also did a sophomore stint at community college.  The two youngest will spend two years at community college first, mature a little, and then finish up somewhere else after a few years of seasoning.  It also helps that in TN community college is free (as long as the criteria in high school is satisfied).  

I think there's a lot more to Matthew Baldwin's transfer than football.

Comment 18 Apr 2019

Absolutely agree.  The AP and USA Today polls should be banned.  And I think these preseason polls do more to drive a narrative of SEC dominance that is driven through a good bit of the college football season and can't help influence some of the thinking by Committee members.  How much of an influence, I don't know.  But the Committee members are human and I presume they read newspapers and watch/listen to broadcast media talking heads.

I don't believe there is a negative bias at ESPN opposed to Ohio State or the Big Ten.  Of course, we would be stupid to think the four letter doesn't promote the brands that it owns.  In addition, probably 90%, if not more, of ESPN's college football employees work exclusively or predominantly for the SEC Network or ACC Network and will reflect affirmative bias for those teams just because they know more about them.  But, that doesn't mean that ESPN is negatively biased against Ohio State.  

Nonetheless, that ESPN is the exclusive broadcast partner of the CFP is a major issue of a potential conflict of interest and gives the appearance of undue influence. 

Comment 16 Apr 2019

I'll beat the dead horse at least one more time.  LOL.  And I confess I've gone back and forth on 4 vs 8, usually when I get focused in on the analytics.  But, here goes nothin'.

The 2017 and 2018 games you posted were CCGs, not regular season games.  Ohio State was already eliminated in 2017 after OU and Iowa losses.  It was an elimination game for Wisky, but not a regular season game.  I doubt 2018 Bama-UGA SEC CCG would have been an elimination game had ND lost the week prior.    

I think proponents of 4 over 8 give too much weight to the regular season, especially given the lack of scheduling uniformity.  As we know, on that rainy and windy day/night in 2015 when Ohio State played MSU the week prior to The Game, Alabama played the mighty Charleston Southern Buccaneers per usual.  Why is the regular season so sacrosanct when SEC teams schedule FCS and multiple G5 teams and only 8 conference games?  UGA only beat 8 P5 teams last year.  There were two teams last year that beat at least 12 P5 teams - Clemson and Ohio State.  I just don't agree that so much value can be given to the cherished college football regular season given the scheduling disparity and when, in my view, schools in the SEC (and ACC to an extent) treat it with such disrespect with how they schedule while primarily schools in the Big Ten and Pac 12 are expected to die at the holy alter of the regular season..   

Personally, I also believe that Ohio State should have been in for 2015 (probably over OU), and 2016 was a make up call by the Committee in the Buckeyes' favor.

Comment 16 Apr 2019

argumentum ad absurdum

In the five years of the CFP, there's been one undefeated national champion (in 2018).  Clemson and Alabama have played for the national championship three times in five years.  I call two of those rematches (and they've played four times total, so make it three rematches).  Oklahoma has been in three of the five CFPs and has won exactly zero games.  I'd say the system is in need of a little saturation.

Your whole argument seems to boil down to the question of whether the #8 team in any given year would have been worthy.  And since in your view the #8 team has never  been worthy, ipso facto expansion to 8 "stinks" in your words.  Of course, if the CFP is expanded to 8 teams, everyone will be arguing about whether #9 was more worthy than #8.  But that's also a logical fallacy as a reason to not expand.

FBS college football is different for a number of reasons, but none of them have anything to do with this comparatively new five year experiment we call the College Football Playoff.  

Comment 16 Apr 2019

Good points, but easily solved.  I doubt the "Committee" spends much time or thought after the CCGs ranking 5-8 (or 5-25 for that matter).  If anything, they are ranking just for purposes of which teams go to the NY6 bowls, and it didn't matter (except for fan bragging rights) whether UGA or tOSU were ranked 5 or 6 last year.  All that would be necessary is to have a rule that teams from the same conference can't play each other in round 1 or even round 2.  The Committee would still be tasked with seeding.  Just because a team wins one of the P5 CCGs doesn't mean it would be ranked in the 1-5 spots.  An at-large team could be ranked 1, for example, even without winning its conference.  As someone else said above, do what the NFL does and re-seed after round 1 to avoid what you point out.  I'm pretty sure college teams and fans can figure out travel arrangements just as NFL teams and fans do every playoff season.  

Comment 16 Apr 2019

Sigh. I’m allowing myself to be drawn back into one of these threads again. 

Expansion to 8 teams “will ruin the regular season” is a straw man argument. Heard that prior to 2014 as well.  “A 4 loss conf champ will get in.”  We can cross that bridge if we get to it. But I guess an 11-7 conf record Auburn SEC champ ruined March Madness and the men’s b-ball Final 4 this year. 

And that's all the proof anyone should need to expand to 8. You can rely on all the data and analytics you want, but ultimately games are won or lost on the field or court so shouldn’t championships be as well?  Expanding to 8 takes most of the decisions away from “the experts” and their “data points” or “eye tests” and puts it back on the field and actual outcomes rather than predictions. All “the experts” had Duke winning it all. Or Kentucky. Or Gonzaga. Even the Selection Committee and Lunardi and Palm only got one of the Final 4 correct. Not one of them had Auburn or Texas Tech. The data and eye tests backed them up. And they were at a minimum 75% wrong. 

Comment 15 Apr 2019

A point of clarification is in order. In 2016, the Committee did not put in Ohio State over Penn State. We were #3. The Committee put UW in over PSU (4 vs 5). 

Another argument in favor of expansion to 8 - IMO the final 4 is also resulting in recruiting advantages and is concentrating highest levels of talent at mainly two schools. 

Comment 04 Apr 2019

My biggest concern about the 2019 season is the O line.  It all begins there for the offense.  With Jackson's transfer, if he is as advertised, and Bowen's return to health, I think we'll have a stout O line.  Depth (i.e., relying on true and RS frosh as some of the depth) is still a worry.  These big bodies get nicked up in the scrum and otherwise.  LT is coming off back surgery, potential RT or G is coming off a broken leg, three surgeries and missing one and a half seasons.  Tackle depth is thankfully two deep at least.  Interior worries me should more than one injury occur there.  Here's to continued mostly good luck on the O line remaining health, relatively speaking.

Speaking of depth, what about Wray.  Never hear about him.  He finally lost his black stripe, and we finally learned he was injured last season.  Sounds like maybe now he can get started on at least getting practice reps.  I wonder how true are the thoughts of him transferring because his brother decommitted?

Comment 04 Apr 2019

STU10, in the ** situation, couldn't you see Bowen at LG, given his prior starting experience at RG, and Alibi to RT?  I guess another option would be Myers to LG and Jones to OC.  Seems Jones has been pushing Myers some.  I like what I'm hearing about OC, and about Miller on his mission trip.  But I don't see a frosh playing OC.  

Comment 03 Apr 2019

Thanks! 

Booked a room at the Holiday Inn Express on Olentangy River Rd.  Stayed there for last year's Tulane game and it served the purpose.  Pricey for an HIE, but it's a game weekend.  Good to know Ticketmaster is a good source.  That's where I got last season's tickets.    

Comment 03 Apr 2019

Appreciate all the great advice and tips.  Kids are 12 and 16.  Sat in C deck last time, and I don't mind it (nor did he once he got used to the steep/height).  Will make the hotel reservation now (it's a 6 ish hour drive from Nashville for us), but wait on the game tickets.  

Go Bucks! 

Comment 24 Mar 2019

Hope the “commitment soon” is Lejond Cavazos. That’s a big boom for a number of reasons. First, the talent for a position of need. Two, great optics - “recommitted”. Urban ->->-> Day. Continuity is huge. Third, he seems to be a leader for the class, esp D.  

Comment 20 Mar 2019

How nice would it be to have just one more year with these two?  

This was genuine mutual respect, admiration, and love. 

Like how Dwayne paid respect to Urban as well. Our football Buckeyes are in good hands also. 

Comment 20 Mar 2019

Haskins was better than “solid.”  I don’t usually watch any pro day, but did today. I doubt many do it like Avery and Haskins. 

Love that Campbell is working out for a certain team down in the Bayou.  I bet McLaurin will too. Any team that needs a QB is a ship of fools if they don’t trade up and take Haskins. Jets are really sitting pretty. Cardinals are fools. 

Comment 18 Mar 2019

My prediction is the Giants trade that 17th pick acquired from the Browns to Arizona for Rosen.  Alternatively, they don't pick or trade for a QB this year, because the Giants think Eli can play two more years and they wait to take a QB in an allegedly better QB class next year.  

The Jaguars take Lock with the 7th pick.  Their signing of Foles suggests the Jags might be more inclined to draft a QB who's in a similar mold to Foles.  

The Broncos wait to take Haskins with their 10th pick (IMO, as with the Jags signing of Foles, the Broncos signing of Flacco telegraphs that they want a QB like Haskins as the future QB of the organization after Flacco serves as a bridge for a season or two).  I could also see the Broncos trading up with the Jets to take Haskins at 3 if they are concerned about either the Giants or Jags taking Dwayne at 6 or 7.