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Ohio State vs Clemson - Analytics (part 2)

+18 HS
NoVAsmitty's picture
December 23, 2019 at 6:20pm
13 Comments

Yes, I decided to fry my brain on the Fiesta Bowl analytics and refine my prior hypothesis from last Thursday.  I beg your indulgence one last time.  I'll cut to the chase with an analytics overview and prediction for the game.  If you don't want to read on, you don't have to.  If you are so inclined as an analytics groupie or otherwise, I'll provide some more commentary and analytics detail.

If each team performs at their respective rate vs top 5 opponents (OSU @ 168% > top 5 opp defense YPC and 158% > YPA; Clemson 125% > top 5 opp defense YPC and 105% > YPA), the Buckeyes should win and outgain Clemson by 75-100 yards....ish.  However, within my prediction is what I think the Buckeyes need to achieve statistically to win.  Make no mistake, the game will be won (or lost) in the trenches, the Buckeyes should (and must) win the FG game, avoid turnovers/costly penalties, and win field position.  

My prediction:  (1) OSU rushes for 5.2-5.7 YPC and passes for 8.5 YPA (90% of OSU's season avg YPA); (2) OSU's rush D holds Clemson to 75% of its season YPC (or 4.6) and holds Clemson to 90% of its YPA (or 7.7 YPA); and (3) OSU wins FGs.  OSU 38-28 (maybe 31-28).  

If you want to read on .....

Previously, I used SP+ to rank each team's top 5 opposing offenses and defenses that they faced.  I refined my data by instead ranking each team's top 5 based on YPC and YPA, offense/defense, and then comparing OSU's and Clemson's respective performances against those opponents.  As a result, some teams dropped out of particular analytical measures of OSU or Clemson performance.  For example, our TTUN friends did not make the top 5 opponent offenses YPC list this time.  A slightly different mixture of opponents changed my prior results, but I think this provides a more defensible analytical basis to compare Ohio State v Clemson season performances and, thus, solidify my prediction.     

1.  First, Ohio State averaged 78 plays/game and roughly a 60/40 run/pass breakdown or 47 rush/31 pass.  Clemson averaged 75 plays/game and roughly 40/60 run/pass breakdown or 30/45 run/pass breakdown.  Number of plays, and the breakdown, is important.      

2.  The top 5 opponent offenses faced by Ohio State and Clemson were comparable in avg YPC (both 4.7) and YPA (OSU opps 8.0 YPA; Clemson opps 8.6 YPA).

3.  Opponent defenses faced were not at all comparable.  OSU's top 5 were 1 YPC better than Clemson's top 5 opponent defenses.  OSU's top 5 were 2 YPA better than Clemson's top 5.  In SP+, OSU faced 4 top 25 SP+ defenses.  OSU's top 5 avg SP+ defense 14, Clemson faced 1 top 25 SP+ defense and top 5 avg SP+ 41.  Overall, Clemson's opponents were #69 in SP+ defense while OSU's were 41. 

4.  Offensively, OSU performed at a higher rate vs opp YPC and YPA than did Clemson, despite weaker defenses.  OSU 168% > YPC and 158% > YPA (Clemson performed lesser v lesser defenses or 125% > YPC and 105% > YPA).  I'd argue that Clemson's offensive performance is exaggerated by playing weak defenses, and is a key reason why I think OSU will hold Clemson to 90% of its season avg YPA or 7.7 YPA and 75% of its YPC (4.6).

5.  LIkewise, I think Clemson's defense benefited by its offense's ability to score a lot and quickly.  Clemson performed remarkably well against top 5 opponent offenses YPA.  Clemson held its top 5 opponents (comparable to OSU's top 5) to only 41% YPA.  Given Clemson's ability to score fast against bad defenses, these opponents' offenses were probably forced to go one-dimensional on offense early (i.e., they had to pass a lot to try and catch up).  The flood gates then opened against the flood which was Clemson's D.  

6.  Both teams' defenses will get stops.  We have to rush for at least 5.0 YPC (preferably closer to 5.7) and achieve 90% of our season avg YPA (or 8.5 YPA).  I think we have to hold Clemson's rush offense to at least 5.0 YPC (probably closer to 4.6 YPC or 75% of their season avg) and their pass offense to 90% YPA or 7.7 (their season avg is 8.6 YPA). 

7.  OSU min/max total yards = 499 to 532.  Clemson min/max total yards = 484 - 537.  It's gonna be a close game.  

8.  Ohio State wins the FG game (and hopefully avoids turnovers/costly penalties) and wins 38-28, but I'm inching closer to 31-28.

It's going to be a great game, and I'm very confident that the Buckeyes will come out on top!  

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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