I know, I know... statistical analysis is no longer valid. Nope, it's all about the gut now. Can't you clearly see it? We got no chance, brother. We gotta get through Purdue, man... this is the worst defense in 20/25/30/35 years(I've forgotten the number but every day we can add 5 to it).
I've heard this repeated more than a couple times since we held Minnesota to 14 points, and it got me thinking. Are they right? Is this the worst defense in a century? Turns out... not really and in fact this defense comes out on top or near the top of most categories since 2009 (the site i'm using doesn't go back further).
I mean some of these stats almost got me thinking that we could be okay:
- This year we're allowing an avg of 370 ypg on defense... in 2012 we went 12-0 allowing 359 ypg and in 2014 we won a championship allowing 342 ypg.
- Since 2010 we've only held opponents to less points per game twice, 2015 and 2016 (15.4 and 15.1 resp.) compared to a whopping 19.1 PPG in 2018 (shame!!!) which makes this our 3rd best scoring defense in 9 years.
- 2018 defense is giving up 3 points less per game than the 2014 "championship" defense
- 2018 defense is allowing a 28% 4th down conversion rate. That's the lowest out of all years 2009 to present, including 2009, the next lowest being 32% in 2015 and the highest being 48% last year
- 2018 defense is allowing a 31.6% conversion rate on 3rd down. That's the lowest since 2010 (30.1%). The highest being 40.2% in 2011 and next highest 35.6% in 2013.
- Opponents red zone success % in 2018 - 87% - and in 2014 - 85% -- in all other years, this has been much lower on average (good omen?? huh??)
- Average margin of victory is the highest (26.2) since 2009, including 2009, a full 4.2 PPG higher than in 2014
I don't know... maybe just maybe, we could get healthy, keep getting better, get Nick back, and dare to show up in the playoffs? (i know we gotta get through purdue first, got it bud).
Who knows what a little bit of positive energy could do...
