I am hoping Ohio State gets selected today. However, there is a strong chance the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in. Below are three reasons why this year's team will be left out.
The two biggest things working against Urban Meyer's squad are the loss to Iowa and the Big Ten's performance in the last two semifinal games. The third roadblock is one not many people have spoken about...Gene Smith.
IOWA
The Iowa loss is the biggest knock against Ohio State's chances of being selected. On November 22, Kirby Hocutt had this to say about the defeat to the Hawkeyes:
Q: When you guys talk about and evaluate Ohio State, I'm curious how you view that Iowa loss against the rest of their résumé, and in particular when you talked about this week after Iowa has now lost the last two games since that Ohio State game.
Hocutt: “You know, Ohio State has been impressive in their play in the last two weeks, but as you said, the convincing losses that they have -- the two losses they have were in convincing fashion, to Oklahoma earlier in the year and then to Iowa. And yes, that is a bad loss to Iowa that sits there on Ohio State's résumé. Not sure what else to say about that. Obviously a talented team. They've played well the last two weeks. But two convincing losses sit there on their résumé.
That was before the Buckeyes routed Illinois, beat their rival and defeated No. 4 Wisconsin.
A week later, Hocutt asked point blank, "How big is the gap between Alabama and Ohio State?"
Hocutt: “Reflecting on the discussions over the last two days, obviously there's three spots that separate them right there, but it's close separation from team No. 5, Alabama; 6, Georgia; 7, Miami; 8, Ohio State. Those teams are close. Very little separation in the committee's eyes between teams 5 through 8.”
That reads promising until you he answers this follow up question, "How hung up is the committee on Ohio State's loss to Iowa?"
Hocutt: “It's a factor. You know, two decisive losses sit on their résumé: The Iowa loss that you mentioned, also the loss to No. 3 Oklahoma. That's obviously something that's on their résumé and the committee references when we talk about Ohio State.”
This comes down to what the committee puts more stock in, losses or quality wins? Unfortunately, I think they are going to knock Ohio State more for the Iowa loss than give it credit for the wins over No. 2 Penn State and No 4 Wisconsin.
that is a bad loss to Iowa that sits there on Ohio State's résumé. Not sure what else to say about that. – Kirby Hocutt 11/22
The 2015 and 2016 Semifinal Games
Michigan State and Ohio State were defeated by a combined score of 69-0 in the last two semifinals. Will this weigh on the committee when deciding between the 2017 versions of the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide? It shouldn't, but it will.
Why was Ohio State in last year's playoff when they didn't win the Big Ten? Because the committee goofed by not putting in the 2015 Buckeyes. Look for this year's team to be punished for the past performances as the 2016 team benefited from the omission of the 2015 squad.
With the Big Ten getting shut out in consecutive years, it opens the door for a discussion on the conference's strength. Fair or not, this will be the second strike against Ohio State getting the nod this year.
The Gene Smith Conundrum
Some might think that having Gene Smith on the committee will help Ohio State's chances of getting selected, but I think it's the opposite. Although Smith is not allowed to be in the room when the committee discusses the Buckeyes, I feel the selection group may keep Ohio State out to show that they are not biased.
Holcutt was asked this question/statement about Gene Smith, "I know that Gene Smith has to leave the room whenever Ohio State is a discussion point, but in a situation or in a world where Ohio State is likely going to be compared directly to other teams, how do you guys handle it when you're talking about the team that Ohio State is being directly compared to because he could have an impact on Ohio State even when he's not talking about Ohio State, if you follow what I'm saying."
Hocutt's answer:
Hocutt: “Well, first I would say that obviously you're familiar with our recusal policy so that any time that Ohio State is on the board for ranking, Gene is out of the room. You know, Gene can be in the room and involved in discussion when it comes to other teams that are not Ohio State. We do have flexibility to extend our recusal policy, and we did that last year. We did that with Dan Radakovich and Clemson, and not only did Dan not participate in votes pertaining to Clemson last year, Dan did not participate in votes that could affect who Clemson's opponent could possibly be. And we would extend that same approach this year that could impact Dan again, obviously Gene, and then obviously Coach Beamer is recused when we're voting pertaining to Georgia. We'll be consistent with how we handle that, and the precedent was set last year by extending the recusal policy that we have, and we'll follow that same extension to the recusal policy this year.”
How It Might Play Out
Yes, beating two teams ranked in the top four and No. 13 Michigan State are nice feathers in the cap, but I'm not sure it's going to be enough for Ohio State to overcome the perceived greatness of Alabama, the loss to Iowa, the shutouts of CFPs past and the Gene Smith factor.
I hope I'm wrong, but it appears the Buckeyes will be playing Auburn, UCF or USC in a New Year's Six Bowl.
A real shame the Rose Bowl is in the rotation this year, because if Ohio State is left out of the playoff, I want to see the Buckeyes play USC and end the seven game losing streak to the Trojans in the Granddaddy Of Them All.
