Once more unto the breach. Without hyperbole, this season likely hangs in the balance. Lose this game, and I don't know that Ohio State has a shot at the postseason nationally. Only a deep run to the end of the Big Ten tournament would keep the Buckeyes alive. Maryland is scrapping for its own postseason hopes, and the Buckeyes are regressing as a team. Not the time to start to falter. Big, BIG game.
Offense
Maryland's recruiting reliance on transfers has finally come home to roost. The offense, especially when Eric Spanos (#1) was hurt, struggled. Mightily. Despite having multiple 5-star players in the 2025 freshman class on offense, the production has not been there. The bridge between last year and this year is gone. Ohio State, obviously, is the most extreme example of the pitfalls of transferring in a whole new offense each year.
Maryland just isn't scoring. Their shooting stats are good. A .322 shooting rate is good. Not elite. But good. The SOG% is 61%, which is actually a pretty elite number. Maryland just isn't getting shots to fall. Only 11.75 goals per game.
Leo Johnson (#33) is actually leading the team in goals (20) and points (33), but Spanos is second in goals despite missing 3 of Maryland's 8 games. As befits the #1 jersey, Ohio State has to watch Spanos. And I am leery about it.
Defense
The best Maryland defender, Will Schaller, won't play today. Or the rest of the year. With that said, the defense still is not up to par. The Terps allow 10.38 goals per game, which is not good. Especially for a Tillman coached program. Brian Ruppel (#19) has been okay in goal, saving exactly 50% of shots faced. But he hasn't been at the All-american level that Maryland is used to.
Having said all that, Maryland is still stingy. Allowing a shooting percentage of .285 is good. The Terps totally smothered Penn State's offense, they just couldn't score. A shot on goal percentage allowed of 57% is excellent. And the assist rate is well under 50%. Essentially, what I am saying is that this Ohio State offense will struggle. Again. And that could be that.
Faceoff
Maryland is an elite team on faceoffs. Period. The end. Winning over 60% in this version of the game is exceptional. Ohio State will be in big trouble. Period. Henry Dodge (#40) is winning 66%. On THAT schedule. This will be brutal for all concerned from the OSU side.
Special Teams
The way this Maryland team is a rich man's version of OSU can be seen here. Maryland has only scored on 20% of their Man Up opportunities. That's bad. Real bad. Conversely, teams have scored 1(!) Man Up goal against Maryland all year. In 16 attempts. That a 6.3% success rate. This area will likely be a nonfactor in the outcome of the game.
Overall
Bluntly, Ohio State doesn't win today. The game is away, where Ohio State struggles quite often. The offense is so out of synch and banged up that they're nonfunctional. And the goalkeeper situation is totally unclear. If even one area was performing at a top 4 level, I would be more positive. I don't think the Buckeyes have it in them this season.
Final prediction: Maryland 9, Ohio State 4.
Go Buckeyes. Hope I am wrong.
Game is on BTN at 6 p.m. EDT.
