With two thirds of the season now gone, it is time to admit that this year has gone off the rails. Not in a "What a bad idea!!!" sense, but in a totally snakebitten one. The offense that was supposed to be vastly improved has yet to materialize. Defensive personnel, despite loss after loss to injury, continue to fight for every bit of success. Turning into the best scoring unit in the country despite missing their best defenders.

Offensively, the recruiting of midfielders continues to be the Achilles heel of this program. Recruiting a brand new two deep from the portal each season has yielded poor results. This year, injuries have destroyed what would have been an adequate group to the point that Ohio State is allergic to scoring. This is not what you want to see happen as the meat of the schedule rises before the Buckeyes.

Penn State is the most mercurial and dangerous squad Ohio State will play all year. The Nittany Lions could easily score 25 tomorrow in a blowout. Or, they could self destruct and score a paltry 3 goals while allowing 5 in a defeat. It's literally impossible to say. I think this game is another brutal one offensively. First to 8 probably wins.

Offense

Penn State is currently led by former 5-star Kyle Lehman (#4). Lehman makes the Nits go, with 16 goals and 10 assists in 8 games this season. Scoring 3+ points per game is really dang good. The most remarkable thing about Penn State is their efficiency. The Nittany Lions are shooting a monstrous .361 this season. Their shot on goal percentage is just a hair under 61%, which is very good as well.

Penn State is plagued, however, by maddening inconsistency. If you're a fan of the blue and white. They will either drop 19 on top 10 Cornell, or will get smothered for just 7 goals by Princeton. It's genuinely feast or famine.

Even the game against Maryland was bad, statistically. The Nittany Lions only had 7 goals through 52ish minutes against a mediocre Maryland defense. They didn't shoot above the Mendoza line until the third goal of the 4th quarter. And for the game, Penn State was just 50% in getting shots on goal. There's room for optimism, assuming Hunter Aquino is still out tomorrow. Having missed the past 3 games, everyone in Scarlet and Gray would be happy if he just took another week off to rest.

Defense

Penn State is mediocre on defense. Until Maryland laid an egg last week, scoring just 6, the Nittany Lions had allowed teams to shoot above .300. That is also a product of the fact that Preston Hawkins (#35) decided to utterly stonewall a Maryland team that got 71% of its shots on net. Hawkins made 14 saves, by far his best outing of the year.

Otherwise, the Nittany Lions do a great job at smothering opponents. Penn State forces teams into 17 turnovers a game, a massive figure. Ohio State has been abjectly terrible at holding onto the ball. They need a total revamp dodging to have a prayer this game.

Faceoff

Penn State is among the best in the country at the dot. They win 60% of draws, and will do their best to dominate tomorrow too. If Ohio State wins 45%, that is a good day. I still don't know why Furshman has gotten basically zero run, but I digress.

Jack Oldman and Matt Mayfield really need to put together a good performance, because the offense will need every chance it can get to score.

Special Teams

Penn State has an utterly hilarious split here. On Man Up, Penn State is outrageous. Fully 50% of the time, they score. Good is 35%. Hitting 50% is elite.

On the other hand, the Nittany Lions are allowing opponents to score 73% of the time on Man Down. I don't think I have ever seen a team be that dramatically different on Special Teams. That's such an extreme difference that I would be pulling my hair out watching it. If the Buckeyes can get some opportunities, this game could be very winnable.

Overall

I alluded to it before, but Ohio State has a Garrett Haas problem. He has 27 turnovers through 9 games. At a rate of 3 per game, that's unacceptable. The next closest problem is a tie at 9 apiece. Literally 300% more turnovers happen with the ball in Haas' stick than in the next worse player.

Lest you think I am being too mean, I checked last year's numbers. Haas had 33 turnovers last season. In 16(!) games. He has massively increased his loss rate in a single offseason.

So what do they do? Khalif Hocker and Liam White need to get more run. Hocker is a liability shooting anyway. He is a dunk only scored. Haas and Marinier are both shooting 37%, but get saved way too much. I think if the team moves away from Haas as a dodger, it can unlock options. Especially because Jackson Walsh is not good enough as a shooter in 6v6.

More realistically, Ohio State has a good chance if Jack Allen starts to keep things very tight. Penn State forces a lot of turnovers, but commits even more. Averaging almost 19 a game, the Nittany Lions are not exactly a mistake free team. Ohio State can turn them over. A lot. They just have to score.

If this game becomes a track meet, Ohio State loses. They don't have the offense to keep up. If this is like last week's Maryland game for Penn State, OSU can absolutely win another 6-5 slog. I lean towards that being the case.

Final prediction: Ohio State 7, Penn State 5.

Game on BTN at 4 p.m. EDT

Go Buckeyes!