I am behind the times and days off when it comes to my last post. The Denver game is tonight, not Saturday, and then we have a huge layoff until the Big Ten schedule kicks into gear. So, for better or worse, tonight is the night. I called this a must-win game last week, and I still feel that way. Ohio State’s best nonconference win is Georgetown, and the Hoyas are spiraling. Badly. The Notre Dame loss stings, but isn’t a killer. A loss to Denver may be catastrophic, barring an undefeated in conference play. Realistically, it would be hard to justify keeping Buckeyes out of the national tournament with a win tonight and even a 3-2 conference record. Lose, though, and you may need to get deep into the the Big Ten tournament without any regular season Big Ten losses. And that’s not happening.

Offense

Denver’s offense is good, but not great. The Pioneers are led by attackman Cody Malawsky (#17), who is the only player for Denver with more than 10 goals. Sporting a 12 goal and 5 assist scoreline through 5 games, Malawsky is the scorer in Denver. Fellow attackman, and native Ohioan (I’m STILL salty Myers let him leave), Marek Tzagournis (#34) is second on the team in scoring with 8 goals and 6 assists. Only 4 players have at least 10 points in total, which is interesting for a team that is known for its offensive scheme like Denver.

Speaking of, Denver is radically underachieving offensively for what the stats would predict. Averaging just 12.40 goals per game, every other metric has Denver much higher in that scoring column. The Pios are shooting .354, get 65% of their shots on goal, and have nearly a 70% assist rate. Denver is getting looks, but until recently shots have not fallen as you would imagine. The only issue seems to be they don’t shoot the ball enough. Denver averages more than 4 fewer shots per game than their opponents. Something to keep an eye on. Full disclosure, the Pios put 20 on Cleveland State in their opener, but that means less than nothing.

Defense

This is where things get dicey. This lacrosse season has been an absolute disaster to predict. Every top 10 team, outside of Princeton, has looked dreadful at certain points. Sometimes for a full game. Denver's only loss is to a Cornell team that is looking very shaky after last year’s magical run to a title. That 13-9 drubbing is the most goals Denver has allowed all year. The team averages barely 6 goals against, but that is offset by the level of competition early. In their past two games, Denver allowed 13 goals to Cornell, and 9 goals to a Wolverines team that is struggling in every respect right now.

Statistics lie, certainly, but through 5 games the Pioneers have a stellar set of numbers. Denver allows teams shoot just .162 this season. That’s an outrageous shooting percentage. Obviously, allowing just 3 goals per game in your first 3 games skews that a bit. But it is concerning for an Ohio State team that has struggled lately shooting the ball. Further, the Pioneers are keeping teams to just 51% in shot on goal percentage. That’s a wild statistic. Ohio State has plenty of reason to be concerned about the offense.

Goalie is even more concerning. Grayson Manning (#48) sports a robust 674 save percentage. Elite number. He allows less than 7 goals per game. Elite number. He has a defense playing well in front of him. All of these are problems for Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been really reliant on winning individual matchups this season, most especially as the entire offense has gotten hurt in one way or another. If Ohio State struggles again to generate good shots, with good placement, Manning could seal an All-American season with 80% in saves.

Special Teams

This might be where the story really is shown. Denver is quite pedestnan on Man Up. They score 35% of the time, which is exactly what they’re ' shooting. That’s not a great number, and barely a good one. Shows me that maybe the goals per game number is more accurate in terms of their ability to score. And that Caleb Fyock might not need to have a career day to do enough to stop this offense.

Defensively, the Pioneers are great. Just 18% on Man Down. That’s a tremendous number. And more signs that the Buckeye offense could be in trouble. Ohio State needs to get healthy and write the ship, desperately.

Faceoffs

Ohio State got absolutely clobbered by Notre Dame. That hurts, because Notre Dame got destroyed by Maryland, who Ohio State needs to beat this year. Denver is having a poor year, sitting just under 49%. Luke Smeader (#41) has won 50% of his 88 faceoffs this season, putting him #1 on your list of enemies. Neither Matt Mayfield nor Jack Oldman have been anywhere close to good enough this year. Oldman has no excuse. Four years of development and he’s no different than freshman year Mayfield was a true freshman DIII flip, who has flashed but isn’t consistent. The real pain is that Dylan Furshman played football. If he was in fallball, I imagine he is #1. Obviously, having taken zero it just isn’t in the cards for 2026. We'll see about 2027. Ohio State must be at least at 50% today to win.

Overall

Ohio State isn’t in trouble for 2026, but the team could be with a poor showing tonight. I feel like a night game, at home, after a painful loss, is a recipe for some renewed focus. Better practice. This game, I feel, will score loowwwww. Way low. Maybe 6-5 low. I trust neither offense, and neither defense has a major weakness. Ohio State may have more talent, but Denver is playing too well as a unit to be in second place. Close game throughout, but I think Ohio State pulls it out.

Final Prediction: Buckeyes 8, Denver 6

Go Buckeyes!

Game is tonight at 7 p.m. EDT.

On BIG+, Again.