I know that I never got around to posting about the Air Force win from Valentine’s Day, but I’ll weave some of that into this preview to make up for it. Reviewing that game, Ohio State essentially broke most of its tendencies from the first 3 games. That resulted in a much more efficient approach to offense, a solid showing on defense, and a win that looks so much closer than it actually was. High Point comes to Columbus this weekend, looking to recharge after a mauling at the hands of North Carolina in their last game. The matchup is pretty intriguing, though I believe Ohio State will be in a better spot than they were against Air Force.
High Point is 1-1 this season, both coming by way of blowout. The Panthers rocked VMI 19-11 in their opener after a cancelled game against Navy. And, as mentioned above, HPU got utterly devastated by a 20-9 shellacking at the hands of the surging Tar Heels. With so few games played (Ohio State’s season is almost half done after tomorrow), High Point does not have many data points to provide a diagnosis. But that doesn’t mean I won’t speculate wildly about how the game will go. Especially since we know a lot more about Ohio State than most teams.
Offense
High Point, like Ohio State, is highly dependent on its attackmen to generate offense. The Panthers are led by Justin Wixted (#2), who has 4 goals and 8 assists on the year. Wixted was held to 1 goal and 2 assists against North Carolina, though there’s added context to that figure that will be addressed in the next section. Fellow attackman Carson Robins (#55) has 6 goals and an assist this year, while middie Ryan Hynes (#7) has 4 goals this season, Obviously, with just 2 games against vastly different teams, there's not a lot to really be able to say definitively. There's some lessons to be gleaned from the numbers, however.
High Point is very, very efficient when it comes to shooting. The Panthers are above 65% in shot on goal percentage, which is a phenomenal number. Against the Tar Heels, High Point got 18 of their 24 shots on goal. Hitting the net 75% of the time is absolutely bananas, especially against a team that outclassed the Panthers by an incredible margin at every position. That’s a testament to the squad, even with the score being so lopsided.
Largely as a result of their ability to generate quality shots, High Point is shooting .418 on the year. That is championship level offense. Full stop. Ohio State is going to have been on its toes all 60 minutes in order to bottle up the visiting team on Saturday. A good game from Caleb Fyock would be most helpful as Buckeyes look to keep their winning streak alive.
Defense
This is where High Point falls apart. North Carolina bullied the Panthers by simply overwhelming them. The Tar Heels took 56 shots to High Point’s 24. North Carolina shot an excellent.357 in the game, but that’s not a number that is unheard of by elite teams. It’s the volume of shots that High Point allowed that stifles their overall level for the season. In 2 games, High Point averages 43 shots allowed.
That’s absolutely absurd. Their goals allowed average is 15.50, another not great number. VMI and North Carolina combined to shoot .360. In a bit of a fascinating anomaly, North Carolina missed the cage a lot. Only 51.8% of shots hit the net. This is the only good marker for a defense that looks more ready for North Carolina high school lacrosse than DI.
In goal, things aren’t much better. Zack Overend #44) is the starter, who has a save percentage of .354. If you’re the Ohio State offense, you’re absolutely eager to play against a keeper like that. I don’t know if High Point will make a change, but they’re not even adequate at that spot. It’s a glaring weak spot that Ohio State should be able to exploit to the full. Even if they put all the backups in early.
Faceoffs
While not quite as poor as Air Force, High Point is not doing a great job at the dot this year. The Panthers are .462 on the season at faceoffs, with their starter Luca Accardo (#43) just 25 of 53. Matt Mayfield split time with Jack Oldman against Air Force, but has consistently outperformed Oldman all year long. Mayfield was 8-11 against the Falcons, and should get more draws with each new week. He wasn’t my pick for breakout freshman FOGO, but we’ll darn sure take it. The 2025 class may yet be the most DI ready, and overall talented, recruiting class that Nick Myers has ever recruited. We will see what the future holds, but from a personnel standpoint, Ohio State is looking more dangerous than ever before.
Special Teams
High Point, in a limited sample size, is pretty good on Man Up. Sitting at .500, the Panthers can make teams pay for committing fouls. That jives pretty well with their offensive output. There’s absolutely no reason that High Point would be incapable of scoring multiple goals if given the opportunity. On the other hand, there may not be a worse Man Down unit in the country. Allowing teams to convert 67% on Man Down is appallingly bad from that defense. With a team like Ohio State, who has a plethora of legitimate shooters, High Point is in serious trouble if they commit penalties.
The Buckeyes have 4 to 5 elite options when shooting. Any one of them can bury HPU if given half a chance.
Overall
Ohio State showed something different against Air Force. After 3 games of essentially spamming goalies with outside shots, the Buckeyes played a good zone offense out of the 1-4-1. Between actively attacking the seams in the zone to draw adjacent defenders and passing to the now open man, and using X effectively to get a defender to come below GLE to open up wing or top of the key shots, it was a good effort. Ohio State was rewarded with a .424 shooting percentage on the day, needing only 33 shots to net 14 goals. Air Force consistently rotated between man and zone defenses to try to keep the Buckeye offense guessing, but new OC Purpura really showed development is a key of his coaching style. The Buckeyes responded well, picked their spots, and hit shots.
This game against High Point probably won’t be as challenging as last week’s game against Air Force. Defensively, the Buckeyes miss Bobby Van Buren, but the score against the Falcons wasn’t as bad as it looked. Air Force scored 3 goals after all the reserves came in, including one with 10 seconds left. I’m not going to nag about things when the Buckeyes were up 11-4 after 3 quarters. If that game even ends 14-8, everyone is talking about a beatdown. Well, everyone being the 11W commentariat, because this is where all the Buckeye lacrosse fans gather. High Point is much worse defensively, much better offensively, slightly better at faceoffs, and much worse at goalie than Air Force. I don’t think that Ohio State will be able to take too much time out of the game, unless Matt Mayfield hits 75% while taking all the draws. This game has all the makings of a high scoring affair.
With the players on hand, Ohio State is poised to have a shot at the 20 goals put up by North Carolina last week. The Buckeyes could be even better if Russell Melendez has managed to get past whatever issue has kept him in “day-to-day” status. I’ll be honest, though, that Ohio State 1s really seeing some incredible play from its freshmen. Jack Deliberti has solidified himself as a second-line middie. Deliberti is on pace to have more points than Liam White did as a freshman, despite playing at a much different level. Khalif Hocker has racked up 7 goals and an assist in his freshman season. That’s pretty much a 5-star start, despite recovering from a blown ACL. Jake Struck also has 2 goals and 2 assists, which is really good for a middie who was never a lacrosse specialist.
Ohio State will need to keep the Panthers from getting too loose in the game and racking up easy goals. The Tar Heels won big by just overwhelming the hapless HPU defense. If Ohio State doesn’t play a full 60, this could get dicey late. Even so, I don’t believe the game will end up all that close. High Point is ridiculously bad on defense. They’re going to have score 18 to win. And I don’t think Fyock will play bad enough to allow that to happen, even if the defense is off.
Final prediction: Ohio State 17, High Point 8.
Go Buckeyes!
Game is at noon on B1G+.
