Ohio State has been trending in the wrong direction this season, and it’s not looking too bright as we look further into the season. Last Saturday, Ohio State needed a massive third quarter to break open a game against Cleveland State, who is not a good team. Tuesday, Bellarmine gave Ohio State all it could handle, a little over a week removed from a 23-9 demolishing at the hands of Duke. Now, Ohio State will be taking on Air Force, in Colorado, on 4 days rest, after the Falcons really gave Denver all it could handle in Peter Barton Lacrosse Stadium.

Though the 10-2 score doesn’t look all that impressive, Air Force played very, very well against an opponent with far better talent. The Falcons ended up with more shots, more groundballs, a draw at the faceoff dot, and a better clearing percentage. Denver got much better shots and a better goalie performance, which made the game very lopsided. That said, Ohio State is going to be on upset alert tomorrow.

The biggest storyline for Ohio State in 2026 is health. They’ve already lost an All-American for the year in Bobby Van Buren. Russell Melendez remains day to day. Alex Marinier’s status is unknown. Blake Eiland returned Tuesday after sitting out against Cleveland State. It’s been a brutal season for injuries to the Buckeyes, and they’ ll need to get healthy to be in the mix for a national tournament berth by year’s end.

Aside from that, the general offensive malaise that has been a part of the past two victories is the other theme to watch. Zone defense gives Ohio State absolute fits, and nothing seems to have improved on that front. We'll see what Air Force manages to do to stymie an Ohio State offense that is looking for answers. After holding Denver to just 10 goals last week, things are looking dicey. Fortunately, it appears that with Josh Yago at Notre Dame, the Falcons are looking a little peckish when it comes to offense as well.

Offense

Obviously, scoring just 2 goals against Denver is an eyebrow-raising sight for any power 2 lacrosse fan. The Falcons have been at the fringes of lacrosse for ages now, mostly as a result of being a service academy with zero success or tradition. At least since Power 2 lacrosse became a thing. Once upon a time Ohio State and Air Force were vying for league titles against each other. Now the Buckeyes are expected to be in the race to win the Big Ten, while the Falcons are barely staying afloat.

In terms of personnel, native Ohioan Luke Vrsansky (#14) is Air Force’s best shooting middie, and will be a threat that draws an LSM all day. That's going to make tomorrow very rough for him. At attack, Christian Schweiger (#31) is the leading scorer for Air Force with 4 goals and 2 assists. Since Air Force has only scored 15 goals this season in 2 games, there's not a lot of statistical threat to be worried about. Defensively, Ohio State matches up very well with the Falcons.

Defense

This is where things get interesting. After allowing Lafayette (coached by Pat Myers) to score 12 goals in a 13-12 thriller, the Falcons shut down Denver last week. Allowing just 10 goals on 37 shots, the Falcons made Denver work for every opportunity. This entire season, they’ve been very good at slowing teams down. The Falcons are allowing a shooting percentage of .306. They’re generally keeping teams from hitting the net, to the tune of a .597 shot on goal percentage. That’s really, really good. I don’t know which defense is more likely to show up, the Lafayette or the Denver one, but in either case the Buckeyes could generally struggle.

In goal, the Falcons have Matt Deedy (#51), who posts a .488 save percentage and has made 21 saves this season. Given how much the Buckeye offense made Bellarmine’s goalkeeper look like an AlLAmerican, with worse stats, that’s pause for concern. The Buckeye offense versus the Falcon defense is going to make or break the afternoon for Ohio State.

Faceoffs

Air Force is bad. Really, really bad. The Buckeyes had a hiccup against Bellarmine which saw Jack Oldman lose his role, replaced by true freshman Matt Mayfield in the 1* half of the game. Mayfield played well, helping Ohio State to a 12-21 mark on draws by game’s end. We will see who starts tomorrow, but with Air Force winning just 36% of faceoffs, this is an area Ohio State can exploit to score goals. Either Oldman or Mayfield must win. A lot.

Special Teams

Reflecting their fortunes thus far, Air Force is putrid on Man Up. At just 20%, they’re not winning any awards for offense. On the other hand, teams are converting just 17% against them. So it’s tough going either way. The Buckeyes have been sizzling on Man Up offense, and will hope they get plenty of opportunities to make the Falcons pay while Man Down. If Ohio State can get 4-5 opportunities, this game is over. Handily.

Overall

The chronically overemotional fan in me doesn’t want to have any optimism this week. But at the same time, things change from week to week. I think that teams are aware that the zone is a good way to slow down Ohio State’s offense. I also think that Ohio State will be working on it the remainder of the season. Hopefully things kick into high gear like they did in 2025 after the nonconference schedule gets tougher. Tomorrow, however, the Buckeyes will have to make sure that they don’t make yet another keeper look like a superstar. They'll need to be much more efficient, and have much better shot placement. Like I said on Tuesday, the game against Air Force is going to be a slog. But I think it will be a similar ending.

Final prediction: Ohio State 9, Air Force 4.

Go Buckeyes! Game is at 1 p.m. EST on ESPN+.

It's Valentine’s Day, a play-by-play will be limited.