Full disclosure, I’m not over the abysmal committee decisions that resulted in Ohio State being set up for two rematches in a row, should they win on Sunday. Whatever the criteria are for placements, there’s no reason whatsoever that Ohio State should have gotten the hardest draw in the country. A potential path to the title game goes through Notre Dame, Penn State, and Cornell. That’s defending champions, top 5 team, #1 team in the country. Obviously, that last team is expected. But the previous 2 are inexcusable. Granted, there’s history of beating both teams this season. To have a win of the Big Ten Tournament be penalized instead of rewarded, though, is mind-boggling. Just ludicrous. Okay. Deep breaths. Focus up. Let’s turn the page.
Notre Dame, a team that has already gotten a preview, comes to Columbus after a rocky end to their season. The Fighting Irish dropped 2 games to Syracuse, losing 14-12 in the ACC Title Game, after playing with fire most of the year. In a troubling pattern for the team, Notre Dame has allowed itself to be shut out for incredibly long stretches over the course of a game. After getting early leads, the Irish are prone to just freezing offensively. The other side of that coin, however, is that the Irish are just as prone to absolutely demolishing opposing defensives in lightning fast sequences.
It makes Notre Dame one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament, despite some of their flaws. Much like the Big Ten Tournament previews, this will bea keys to the game situation, instead of review of personnel, etc. I’ve been there, done that, and I’m just uninterested in a copy, paste, post preview. Let’s get dirty.
Which Defense Wins?
Notre Dame’s defense has only been a shade worse, statistically, than the Maryland defense this season, while still having enough offensive punch to get wins. The Irish blasted the Wolverines, Virginia, #5 UNC, etc. after losing to Ohio State in South Bend.
None of those teams eclipsed 10 goals against the mighty Fighting Irish. The only team to do so has been Syracuse, the team responsible for the last 2 losses Notre Dame has suffered. Much like the Maryland game, IF Ohio State can score 10 goals, they’re overwhelmingly likely to win. Notre Dame is 0-4 in games where their opponent scores 10 goals or more. Ohio State, on the other hand, has not been a slouch either when it comes to the defensive side of the ball.
The Buckeyes have been able to get away with being a little less dominant defensively thanks to owning the best offensive unit in the Big Ten this year. Ohio State is 5-1 in games where their opponents score 10 or more goals, the lone loss the absolute belter of a defeat to Utah in the opener. Unlike some of their opponents, Ohio State relies more on the goaltender to stop shots, rather than not allowing shots altogether.
They have that luxury thanks to the recruitment and development of Caleb Fyock. Sunday’s nooner is going to be decided in this phase. If Ohio State can emulate Syracuse’s success on offense, the Buckeyes run out winners. If Shawn Lyght and the rest of the defense is able to clamp down on Ohio State’s offense, then this postseason will end extremely quickly. We’ll see what kind of day it’s going to be by the middle of the 2" quarter.
Faceoffs
I’ve said it over and over, but if Ohio State had an All-American faceoff man on this roster, they'd be title favorites, As it stands, we’re going to have to see which version of Jack Oldman shows up. Right now, we’re watching a team betting on its goalkeeper to bail them out of the deficiencies at the dot.
Notre Dame’s offense is notorious for getting skunked in long stretches, while the Ohio State faceoff group is just as notorious for having faceoff losing streaks of 5 or more in a row. Maryland kept themselves in the Big Ten title game simply by winning faceoffs 2 or 3 at a time in the middle minutes of that game.
Ohio State would have won by 7+ if they’d been over 50% at faceoffs. Notre Dame got curbstomped by Syracuse last weekend at the dot, but still kept it very close throughout the day. The Irish won 8 of 29 faceoffs last game, which is just 28%. I think that this game will be over if either team gets to 55% on faceoffs.
I just don’t see either side being all that capable of beating the other on restarts. Jack Oldman is going to win or lose the Buckeyes a title this year. I’m betting on lose.
Kavanagh vs. the Legion
Notre Dame’s offense is completely dependent on Chris Kavanagh. Full stop. There’s no one else that’s capable of putting Ohio State in serious danger each position. Kavanagh has 56 points on 33 goals and 23 assists. No one else is even close to that production. Ohio State can afford to blanket Kavanagh with Bobby van Buren, and let Cullen Brown cause havoc in the passing lanes.
If the Buckeyes get beat, it’s because the last Kavanagh standing goes off in a major way. On the flip side, Ohio State has been able to win games because of its depth. While I had questions about the talent level in the preseason, the depth of Ohio State’s offensive personnel is undeniable. That’s been borne out in the results, as 8 different players have scored at least 20 points in 2025. The Buckeyes present challenges because they’re able to initiate offense with a ton of different players.
Unlike previous iterations of the Scarlet and Gray, there’s not just 1 or 2 threats to deal with. Opponents have to be prepared to defend 5 or 6 dodgers against Ohio State if they’re going to win. Garrett Haas certainly has had the most success, but almost every other regular player has dodged effectively enough to win Ohio State games.
Only Alex Marinier has really failed to rack up assists, but that’s as a result of the design of the offense more than anything. For all the talk about the defenses, these teams are going to have to execute wildly different gameplans in order to win. If the No Names can beat the Kavanagh, Ohio State fans will have to feel really, really good.
Overall
Ohio State comes into its first tournament appearance since the ill-fated 2022 season on a roll. The Buckeyes are coming off of a massive win over their most challenging lacrosse rival, in a game that meant everything. This team believes, has overcome adversity in a way that no previous team has, and is deep enough to make every team in the country shake in its boots. Ohio State will need to be even better to beat Notre Dame again this season, as beating teams twice in a year is extremely challenging.
I think that the Buckeyes match up really well against Notre Dame, despite the obvious gulf in quality between Chris Kavanagh and any other Ohio State offensive player. The Buckeyes have played the toughest conference schedule in the country, even if the first half of the season wasn’t nearly as challenging as it appeared.
Not only that, the Buckeyes took care of business against literally every member of its conference. The only loss, a 13-8 drubbing to Maryland, was avenged in the Big Ten tournament. Every bit of momentum is needed, as Ohio State will be playing a vanquished foe, with all the recent championship pedigree, looking for revenge in the Buckeyes’ house.
I have no doubt that this will be a back and forth affair. The Buckeyes and Irish are in for a real nailbiter, it seems, as goals will be at a premium for both sides. Momentum is on Ohio State’s side, while Notre Dame has a bit of advantage when it comes to motivation.
Even with Ohio State’s historic offensive performance against Maryland last weekend, I can’t conceive a scenario where this game doesn’t come down to a single goal. At home, with a rowdy crowd, and everything to play for, I think Ohio State gets it done.
Final prediction: Ohio State 11, Notre Dame 10.
Go Buckeyes!
Game is Sunday, noon EDT, on ESPNU.
