It is here. The time to take the measure of this program has arrived. In less than 24 hours, we’|I really know what the end of the season is going to bring. It’s not really about the final result, which I unequivocally believe is an Ohio State loss. It’s about how they look in getting there. Ohio State, defensively, is aggressive to the extreme, in a predictable way.

They’re going to slide super early when the opponent is guarded by a short stick. So early that it will be hard for a dodger to react in time, mostly because those players that get that SSDM matchup usually aren’t the best dodgers or players on a given team. Notre Dame, especially after watching the Maryland game in parts, is just a different beast. The Buckeyes usual template of slowing the game down and waiting for a good shot is not going to work here, because their opportunities are going to be so limited.

With how bad faceoffs are, it is a recipe for disaster. Ohio State needs to show that it can score with the titans of the sport. I don’t see that happening after Bryant held the Buckeyes to just 7 goals. If Bryant can do it, the Irish will. A blowout loss, and it’s time to panic.

Attack

The Fighting Irish have just Chris Kavanagh (#50) remaining of its Kavanagh line, but don’t look all that much worse for it. The loss of Pat is certainly going to push them down in the pecking order, but Notre Dame is still incredibly positioned for a deep run in May. Jake Taylor (#13) is a goalscorer down low now too, with 13 on the year to go with his 1 assist. These 2 will certainly be a handful for the Ohio State defense, although I really like how the poles have continued to be stout after the first game debacle. Freshman Brady Pokorny (#80) rounds out the attackmen, having contributed 3 goals and 6 assists in 4 games for Notre Dame. That’s very, very good with how well the Irish have been recruiting lately.

Midfield

In midfield, Notre Dame rolls fairly deep. While not exactly overwhelming athletically, all of Notre Dame’s midfielders are really smart, well versed in the offense, and know what to do with the ball. Watching them pick apart Maryland’s defense early, it was like watching a different sport after seeing Ohio State struggle so much against mediocre defenses. Will Angrick (#10) leads the midfielders in scoring with 5 goals and 4 assists. The real killer from the middies is their recognition of opposing defenses, and how they’re able to make the correct pass to a cutter or open man.

If Ohio State gets behind big early, I don’t know that they’ll be able to feast on the defense as much as Maryland did. It could get ugly. There’s a lengthy logjam after Angrick of effective midfielders, so suffice it to say that the Buckeyes will need everyone on their best game to take care of business in South Bend.

Defense

Statistically, this is one of the worst Ryan Wellner defenses at Notre Dame. The ball dominance of the offense, and poor competition until Maryland, has been the only thing keeping them from getting beat.

Teams, on the season mind you, are shooting over 29% against this defense. Additionally, 69% of shots are getting on goal. With an all-world goalie, concern is slightly lessened, but any equality in shot totals, at these rates, is going to spell doom for the Irish. With that said, this is still a very stingy unit. They’re winning by allowing teams to shoot 15 fewer shots per game than the Irish are shooting. But that’s statistically untenable, and the Irish are in deep trouble against UNC (who knew recruiting top 3 classes annually would drastically improve your team eventually), Syracuse, and Duke. Ohio State needs to prove that it can use

Garrett Haas and the others effectively against a weakened Notre Dame defense to have a prayer at winning.

Goalie

There’s a new regime at goalie for Notre Dame this year, as Thomas Ricciardelli (#1) has taken over between the pipes. Ricciardelli is saving a solid 55% of his shots faced, which has kept the Irish comfortably in front for most games. Ricciardelli had 9 saves against Maryland, though he took the L because Maryland had 17 saves. We’ll come back to that number, it’s important.

While a step back from his predecessor, Ricciardelli is solid enough that the Irish will win plenty of games with him between the pipes.

Faceoff

Notre Dame is absolutely crushing faceoffs this year. Murdering them. Will Lynch (#22) is the primary draw man, winning 65% of his faceoffs this season. No Notre Dame faceoff man is under 50%.

On the season, the Irish have won 63% of their faceoffs. If it’s under 75% tomorrow, I would be utterly stunned. And the big question becomes, can Ohio State play well enough on
defense to stymie a Notre Dame offense long enough to eke out a victory? Because the Buckeyes are in big, big trouble here.

Overall

The Ohio State gameplan, such as it is, for each game is to win the majority of faceoffs, milk the clock on offense, score late in the shot clock, and then get the ball on faceoffs again. Barring that, they’ll look to force a poor shot from the opposing offense and then get the ball back after a save or violation.

Notre Dame takes that through the stratosphere. Maryland stole a victory by getting 17 saves from its goalkeeper, and slowly chipping away with key goals. Notre Dame waxed the floor with the Terps on faceoffs, absolutely peppered the Maryland keeper, and outshot the Terrapins by 14.

Ohio State needs to have its best offensive game of the past 3 years tomorrow, and do it on the road, which has not been kind to the Buckeyes for the better part ofa decade. They just don’t play well outside of Columbus. The road to victory is extremely narrow. Ohio State needs at least 14 saves from Fyock, has to get 65% of its shots on goal, and needs to shoot at 29%. Nothing about the past few games indicates to me that the Buckeyes will get close to anything except the saves.

Caleb Fyock is an All-American goalie, and the Buckeyes are going to waste their years with him because the offense can’t be effective. It’s shame. I do not feel good about this game. I do not think it will be particularly close. And I shudder at the final score.

Final prediction: Notre Dame 15, Ohio State 5.

Notre Dame Ohioan Count: 2

Ohio Vibes Meter: Went to Cleveland once. Didn’t like it.