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Game of the Year Bama-Georgia Predictions/rooting Interests/playoff Impact

+4 HS
Spartan13's picture
October 12, 2020 at 5:04pm
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Likely the regular game of the year will be this saturday between #3 Georgia and #2 Bama. Winner is basically a lock to make the playoffs and depending on what happens the loser has a pretty decent shot as well. If Georgia handles Florida this will also likely have a rematch in the SEC championship game. So far this season Bama has the #1 offense and Georgia has the #1 defense. Both have struggled quite a bit on the other side of the ball. 

Key stats/storylines

  • Bama is the 5 point favorite as the home team, meaning vegas thinks the difference is about a field goal between these teams.
  • Bama is #3 in SP+ with the #1 offense and #22 defense. Georgia is #42 on offense and #1 on defense. Overall Bama is 26.3 overall and the dawgs are 24.2. Accounting for a 3 point home field advantage this is directly in line with the vegas lines. 
  • Stetson Bennet and Mac Jones are quite the step down from the top QBs nationally. Mac Jones is probably better than Stetson but the difference in the defenses will be pretty key in who plays better. The dawgs are an interesting matchup because Mac Jones will be tested for the first time. 
  • The Dawgs have been poor on offense but Bama just gave up 48 to Ole Miss, 24 to A&M , and 19 to Mizzou. The tide were terrible on defense last year. This is a big game for two struggling units. Its really easy to see UGA taking advantage of the not great defense but its also easy to see Bama's talent playing really well against the slower moving UGA led by Stetson Bennet. 

Playoff Impact

  • If Bama wins they will make the playoffs. Bama has an easy schedule the rest of the way with Tennessee, MSU, LSU, UK, Auburn, and Arkansas all average to bad. They wont lose another game and if they go 8-1 losing in the SEC championship they will get in over the big-12 and Pac-12 champ.
  • Georgia winning is the much more interesting result. Georgia still has Florida who could potentially beat them and with a tie breaker would go to the SEC championship game. A result similar to 2017 could happen where Georgia with 1 loss to would get into the playoff ahead of Florida who could take 2nd loss to Bama. 
  • A potential rematch is also pretty likely Bama will win the west regardless and if Georgia beats Florida they would make it in regardless of a loss. If they split the game it would likely end up with both going to the playoff. An interesting scenario would be if either loses both games. A debate would then be should a team get in if they only lose to the #1 team twice or if you lose twice to a playoff team why should you get a third chance. 

Rooting interest

  • With the crazy scenarios above anything could happen this early in the season. Georgia is most likely to have another loss but either way the SEC winner is getting in and either way the SEC is still very much in play(if not the favorite) to have the 2nd place team take the 4th spot. 
  • I am rooting for Georgia. One I just dont like Bama. Two I think beating UGA would be easier. OSU could damn near shut out Georgia while getting to see Fields vs Georgia would be incredible to see. Georgia winning almost guarantees they make the playoff and we would get to see either Clemson or Georgia which is fun. Bama may be a tougher matchup as their offense is simply amazing and should be able to score 30+ on anybody. I think OSU is better but thats a much scarier game. Bama taking 2 losses to Georgia is the ideal scenario. 

Who are you rooting for and who do you think wins?

 

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