MSU currently has the #1 ranked rushing defense in the country and , likewise, they are the #4 time of possession team.
MSU's passing defense has not been good all season (partially due to scheme and injuries in the secondary)
But MSU's ability to shutdown the run and control the clock / field position could power them past michigan.
I'm still picking UM to win this game because I think their improved passing game can find the holes in that MSU secondary and their defense will be able to limit MSU. Special teams might come up huge in this game where MSU has a decent advantage.
Prediction UM 20 MSU 16