In the grand scheme, the recruiting rankings generated by the major services (247, ESPN, etc.) are useful tools for predicting how successful college football programs will be. I wonder, however, whether the individual player rankings are as useful in predicting which QBs will play at an elite level.
In my years watching college football, I can't remember how many times I've seen great teams, stocked with studs all over the field, but led by a QB that was an unheralded 3-star recruit, while the 5-star QB rides the bench. Predicting which QBs will develop into elite players can be tricky - just ask NFL scouts.
If you look at the top 10 QBs in passing efficiency in recent seasons, you'll see about half of them were unheralded recruits:
Top 10 QBs in Passing Efficiency 2015-2017
2017 (247 rating in parentheses):
1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (H.S. 247 rating = 0.8384)
2. Mckenzie Milton, UCF (0.8362)
3. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma St. (0.9004)
4. Drew Lock, Missouri (0.9553)
5. Logan Woodside, Toledo (0.8040)
6. Jake Fromm, Georgia (0.9794)
7. Will Grier, West Virginia (0.9765)
8. J.T. Barrett, Ohio St. (0.9380)
9. Riley Ferguson, Memphis (0.8848)
10. John Wolford, Wake Forest (0.8435)
2016
1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
2. Logan Woodside, Toledo
3. Mike White, W. Kent (0.8260)
4. Zach Terrell, W. Mich (0.7878)
5. Nick Stevens, Colorado St (0.8356)
6. Ryan Higgins, La Tech (0.8086)
7. Jake Browning, Washington (0.9633)
8. Nathan Peterman, Pitt (0.8913)
9. Sam Darnold, USC (0.9339)
10. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma St
2015
1. Vernon Adams, Oregon (0.7500)
2. Brandon Doughty, W. Kent (0.8479)
3. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
4. Kevin Hogan, Stanford (0.8764)
5. Brandon Allen, Arkansas (0.8766)
6. Matt Johnson, BG (0.7667)
7. Zach Terrell, W. Mich
8. Trevone Boykin, TCU (0.8491)
9. Jared Goff, Cal (0.9154)
10. Taylor Lamb, App St. (0.7832)
Average 247 H.S. rating = 0.8667
So, we see some highly touted recruits like Jake Fromm, Will Grier, and Jake Browning, but also guys who flew under the radar like Baker Mayfield, McKenzie Melton, Zach Terrell, etc.
I also ran a correlation coefficient for all 114 QBs listed by the NCAA under passing efficiency ratings for 2017 in relation to those QB's 247 ratings coming out of high school. Naturally, there are all sorts of caveats about why such a snapshot could be misleading - and I sure as heck ain't a statistician - but fwiw, there is only a modestly positive correlation (0.256 coefficient) between QBs' 247 ratings coming out of h.s. and their passing efficiency in 2017.
What do you think?
