Sorry, but based on your excellent analysis, it sounds like USC 2020 = USC 2019. I.e., good for an upset or two next season, but no better than 9-3 regular season.
I'm not low balling the numbers. I am making a prediction. The current "best estimate" is 0.5%, which is obviously much lower than 2.0%. I could have rested my case on that number and given you some links.
Thing is, the same people now offering 0.5% as the current best estimate about a month ago said the best estimate was 3%. Then it was 1.5%. Then it was 0.9 %. Now it is 0.5%. See where this is going?
No, dude, if someone dies of multiple organ failure due to COVID-19, then they died of COVID-19. That's not what we're talking about. It's when already ill people get COVID-19, but have relatively few, if any, symptoms or impacts from COVID-19, but die from something else. They get recorded as having died of COVID-19 instead of with COVID-19. Not all illnesses are respiratory illnesses, for one thing.
Also, I never watch Fox News.
Let me get this straight . . . you keep insisting on making a statistical claim that you know for a fact to be false (2% death rate), while criticizing others for trying to arrive at a much better guesstimate of the actual death rate while dealing with very incomplete data on the denominator side but relatively complete data on the numerator side?
I was watching the 2003 NCG (2002 season) last night, actually. You could make the argument that the only "controversial" (and consequential) officiating call that went in favor of Ohio State in that game was the Clarett strip. All the other calls/non-calls Miami fans have whined about over the years were FOS and so they can LOLGFT.
But the Clarett strip truly was a "bang, bang" play . . . did Clarett gain enough possession of the ball from Taylor before Clarett hit the ground? I believe he did; however, the camera angles were not great on this play (low definition era, etc.).
The other factor that folks are missing is that governments have openly admitted that they are counting "COVID-19 deaths" as anyone who died with COVID-19, not necessarily because of COVID-19. The only place in the world that has been experiencing a larger overall total morbidity rate (from any and all causes of death) during the last two months is northern Italy. Maybe Spain is hitting that point now, too and you never know what's actually happening in China - the real data will eventually tell.
No, no, and no. The 2% figure, if that is currently accurate, represents percent deaths of known cases - meaning those confirmed by testing. A much larger number of people have/had COVID-19 but were never tested, because their symptoms were mild or non-existent. By design - according to government guidelines - those being tested will be worse off to start with, more likely to be vulnerable populations, etc.; i.e., A). a small segment of the COVID-19 population and B). not a random sample. The best data analysis I've seen estimates the death rate to be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.2%.
Okay, I get your point now, but destroying our own economy is beyond irresponsible. Everyone is on the firing line of this economic self-destruction and the invading "army" (economic devastation) has a proven track record going back many centuries of causing massive suffering, illness, pain, and death. In this metaphor, economic self-destruction is the U.S. military forces and COVID-19 is the Iraqi Army/Baghdad Bob.
You're right, though. To a certain extent, the general population is trained to accept whatever risks and hardships the media tell them to accept. If everyone is on the firing line of this "pandemic," than the "bullets" coming from the virus are much fewer and less deadly than the bullets coming from dozens of other daily risks about which the public has been trained not to worry.
Especially right now, when we are allowed to Eat Arby's but not Eat at Arby's.
Come on, Iowa - let's get some perspective. The death rate of soldiers in the American Civil War has been estimated to be over 10%, maybe even as high as 20%. On top of that, a lot of soldiers suffered serious, debilitating injuries - loss of limbs, etc.
Of course, almost everyone who has served in major combat was/is scared (I say major because my buddy who was on a destroyer during the bombing of Kosovo in 1999 was not the least but scared during that period).
The death rate of all of us American "soldiers" in the COVID-19 "war" is currently about 0.0009% (meaning way, way, way less than 1%) although it will probably climb a bit higher than that at some point.
Excellent points. Already, the human cost of destroying our own economy is probably way worse than the human cost of the virus, but it depends on how well and how quickly we can rebound and recover. The human costs of a self-destroyed economy are suffering, malnutrition, illness, violence, and death - all by the millions, not by the thousands. This is not hard to understand, but for some folks it is.
If Buddy Ryan we’re still alive today and watched Henderson’s highlight video, he would complain, “I don’t know about this Henderson guy. All he does is run for touchdowns.”
The talent level of the top two DTs (Vincent, Togiai) is through the roof. The key is for those two guys to stay healthy.
I have very high confidence that the LBs will be elite. Not because I can predict which of the 8-9 guys will take things to the next level (or two), but because the odds are very high that at least 2-3 of them will.
Obviously, you can't replace Chase Young and Okudah, but if the defense stays healthy, the Silver Bullets figure to be very nasty this season. Not quite as reliable defending the pass, but top 2-3 in the country in run defense and potentially very opportunistic.
I hear what you are saying and I regularly finish steaks with butter, but butter will burn in a "screaming hot" cast iron skillet in a matter of seconds . . . two minutes would be a lifetime. Hence, why you drop the the heat down to medium. Is there a pause while you are waiting for the pan to get medium cool, though?
A typical steakhouse method is to sear both sides in a screaming hot cast iron pan, take off the flame, put butter on top of the steak, then place in the oven. Between the searing on the pan and the broiler, the steak is going to get awesome caramelization without burning the butter.
I've had some amazing steaks at fancy steak houses (and some overpriced ones, too) . . . but the best steak I've ever eaten was a ribeye from a Wegmans grocery store in Ithaca, NY. For some reason, that Wegmans always had excellent meat, whereas other Wegmans I've been to, not so much. The funny thing is, that best-ever ribeye was not labelled as "prime," yet it was perfect!
I'm intrigued - I will definitely try out this reverse sear method.
I was with you all the way, though, up to the point that you suggested dropping butter in a screaming hot pan . . . that sounds like a "recipe" for quickly burning the butter. Maybe if you throw the butter in and then, immediately within 3-4 seconds, get the steaks in the pan . . . the mass of the warmish steaks will cool the pan enough to keep the butter from burning, but not sure about that . . . why not just slather the butter on top of the steak - the side that gets seared first - and then butter the other side right after taking the steaks out of the pan?
Good point. A lot of lost revenue to go around . . .
What about coaches that have clauses in their contracts . . . if their team makes it to the NCAA tournament, they get a bonus? Will some schools shaft their coaches? I doubt this will happen in cases where a team definitely would have made the field, but could be interesting for a "bubble team" program.
Wow, they looked like a real deal basketball team in the second half tonight! Play like this and they can go toe-to-toe in East Lansing and be a tough out in the NCAA tournament. Especially since they took command while not hitting their 3s tonight.
This team is learning how to win and put games away.
If Turgeon is yearning for Maryland’s ACC days . . . three ACC games next Wednesday are scheduled for 9 PM.
Turgeon, your team is dirty, so STFU.
As others have noted, Kaleb Wesson was pushed into Cowan on the "controversial" play - which is a dirt bag move. Also, Cowan did kick Wesson in the back when he threw his tantrum, just not very hard. Fortunately, his other harder kicks missed Wesson's head.
I could go down the list . . . late in the game, there was a hard, cheap foul on CJ Walker by Wiggins.
Turgeon can suck it.
Man, Maryland is a dirty team. Talented and very quick, too, but dirty.
I have the “golden age” of rap/hip hop as being about 1987 to 2003.
No tight end at Ohio State has a build even remotely similar to Hamilton’s 6-foot-2, 263-pound frame.
. . . At his size, he might offer the coaching staff a versatile weapon who can be used both as a blocking tight end and, if needed, as a lead-blocking fullback.
One thing that could help increase Hamilton's snap counts next season is Master Teague's downhill running style. I doubt that Day/Wilson will use much of a traditional lead-blocking FB lined up behind the QB, etc., but they could try to utilize more of a FB-esque heavy (TE) "h-back," especially in motion. Farrell is an excellent blocker, but he's not really a bowling ball like Hamilton is. Also, Hamilton could be very effective on "FB" screens.