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Week 13 CFP Rankings vs the BCS

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I_Run_The_Dave's picture
November 29, 2017 at 1:10pm
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I did this last year, and since it is always interesting to me, here it is again.  Thanks to Wes Colley for continuing to crunch the numbers each week:

http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/bcsLike/bcsLike13.html

BCS Rankings, Week 13, 2017
Rank Team BCS Avg AP Coaches Computers CFP Rank
1 Clemson 0.95575 0.96918 (1) 0.95806 (1) 0.94 (2) 1
2 Wisconsin 0.94979 0.92131 (3) 0.93806 (3) 0.99 (1) 4
3 Oklahoma 0.89042 0.95803 (2) 0.94323 (2) 0.77 (6) 3
4 Auburn 0.87517 0.90098 (4) 0.90452 (4) 0.82 (5) 2
5 Georgia 0.83525 0.81705 (6) 0.81871 (6) 0.87 (3) 6
6 Alabama 0.83098 0.82230 (5) 0.82065 (5) 0.85 (4) 5
7 Miami (FL) 0.72276 0.73377 (7) 0.72452 (7) 0.71 (9) 7
8 Ohio State 0.71457 0.72918 (8) 0.72452 (7) 0.69 (10) 8
9 UCF 0.66051 0.59410 (12) 0.61742 (11) 0.77 (6) 14
10 Penn State 0.65844 0.62951 (9) 0.62581 (10) 0.72 (8) 9

Observations:

There is clear cut separation between 2 and 3 and again between 6 and 7.  However, there is a pretty clear consensus on who the top 4 is, even if the order is different.  The computers are a little all over the place, but clearly value Wisconsin's undefeated record.  

Not listed here, but worth mentioning is that Fresno State is unranked and Michigan is at 23 based on a 0.21 (Tied for 21st with Oklahoma State) computer score.  Mississippi State is 25th with 0 points from computers.  In total there are 6 Big Ten teams ranked in the BCS with Northwestern at 20 and Michigan State at 17.

It appears that Ohio State would have a tough hill to climb to make the top 4, but with 3 teams ahead guaranteed to lose, it could be possible.  I don't believe Ohio State would jump Wisconsin by winning, unless the AP/Coaches drop Wisconsin substantially as the computers aren't going to see as much movement as the polls.  I also don't see them jumping Clemson should they lose for the same reason.  The highest OSU would likely go in the computer averages is 6th so we'd need to jump to probably 3rd or higher in the polls to get 4th in the final rankings.  I really don't see that happening.

If somehow we win convincingly and the CFP committee places us in the field of 4, it could be the first time in the history of the CFP that the top 4 would differ from the BCS.  I'm excited to see what happens this weekend.

Go Bucks, beat Wisconsin!

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