I_Run_The_Dave's picture

I_Run_The_Dave


MEMBER SINCE   October 20, 2012

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  • COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER: JT Barrett and Happy Jamarco
  • NFL TEAM: I care about Buckeyes in the NFL, not NFL teams.

Recent Activity

Comment 1 hour ago

I've thought about doing a mock BCS using CFP rankings in place of the AP, but using the AP is still the actual formula from 2004 before the Harris was created to replace the AP.  The CFP rankings are very similar to the makeup of the Harris poll we just don't get a vote total, just discrete rankings.  Definitely an interesting thought experiment.

Comment 1 hour ago

So I flipped Ohio State and Clemson's positions in the AP and Coaches poll (because I was thinking about how the polls are influenced by the CFP rankings) and guess what?  Clemson still stays home:

Mock BCS Rankings - Final - Swap Clemson and OSU in polls
Team Record BCS Rank BCS Average AP Poll AP Avg Coaches Coaches Avg Computer Computer Avg
LSU 13-0 1 0.9827 1 0.9904 1 0.9877 2 0.9700
Ohio St 13-0 2 0.9503 3 0.9297 3 0.9311 1 0.9900
Clemson 13-0 3 0.9471 2 0.9600 2 0.9612 3 0.9200
Oklahoma 12-1 4 0.8733 4 0.8800 4 0.8800 4 0.8600

There would still be outrage, because leaving out an undefeated defending champion wouldn't sit well with anybody, nor should it.  But let's go one step further -- what if Clemson didn't just swap with OSU, what if they were ahead of LSU as well (putting us at 3 and LSU at 2 in the polls) -- in this scenario we are left out, but it's really really close:

Clemson at top seed with 0.9660 / LSU at 2 with 0.9638, and us at 3 with 0.9503.  Now Clemson probably doesn't get 99% and 98.7% of the AP and Coaches points like LSU did, so that could influence things, so it's possible that Ohio State somehow edges one of them or makes it within a percentage point.  But any way you dice it, there's going to be outrage when an undefeated team is left out.

Comment 2 hours ago

We typically haven't this season.  Even though we gave up 21 points in the first half, 7 of those were within 2 minutes of the end of the first half.  So our defense, while not doing as well as typical, was still holding up for the most part.  Secondly, we waited until half time to switch to more of a zone, which keeps them from countering it at halftime themselves, so if you can make it to half time before adjusting, it keeps them from having more time to counter it.  It can be a gamble, but clearly it paid off.  If we had switched in the first half, then maybe we take a few points off the board for Wisconsin in the first half, but maybe it comes at the expense of points given up in the second half.

I am happy with how the game ultimately went, despite the "eye test" cost.

Comment 2 hours ago

For the last 2 years we complained for being left out (when we deserved to be left out).  Now we complain we were only #2.  SMH...

I look forward to getting the spectre of Charlie Bauman off our collective shoulders, followed by reminding Joe Burrow that he was our backup quarterback (though I still love him).  If we don't get to do the second, at least we can remind Alex Grinch why he wasn't good enough to run our defense by shredding his.

Comment 2 hours ago

The World Wide Leader has as much financial stake in the Big Ten as they do in the SEC.  CBS is the organization that is SEC only, so if you want to cry conspiracy that's where you should look.

ESPN has actually been very complimentary of Ohio State this year, even many saying we should still be #1 both before and after the rankings were released.  

Comment 09 Dec 2019

The Massey Composite is not unknown on these forums, and OSU has pretty much been the consensus #1 on there since week 4 of the season.  Last week we had an even higher percentage of the #1's.  But although I agree we should have stayed at the top, it's hard to argue with the way both games went this weekend - we didn't look great in the first half and LSU was dominant.  I am ok with that being the deciding factor in what has been quite a bit of back and forth the past few weeks.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

To add to this, we were #2 in both polls heading into last weekend despite the wins over Michigan and Penn State the prior two weeks.  Was it fair?  Probably not, but it's not like the #2 ranking by the committee is some giant statement that the rest of the media hadn't already made. 

We were going to have to beat Clemson at some point (they would beat LSU imho) so might as well have the extra prep time.  Let Oklahoma give us the recipe for carving up LSU's defense (not that this will be a problem) and let's win it all.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

She interviewed committee members (don't remember off the top of my head) who said it was 1-3 and then 4-6.  Mullens is only 1 committee member.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

Master Teague

Mr. Crowley

Steele Chambers.

We have the best RB room next year by far (just going off their names).

Comment 09 Dec 2019

I agree.

Any time you have more than 4 or 5 percentage points separating two teams (on average they should be 4% different) then that means there is a fairly wide gap.  Having nearly 5 points between 2 and 3 is significant, but then 5.5 points from 3 to 4 and then nearly 8(!) from 4 to 5 is crazy.  And then 10(!) from 5 to 6.

Anyone clamoring for playoff expansion needs to look at the numbers, because this season definitely does not make a case for it whatsoever.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

The excuses from the loser will be epic, no doubt.  I just think this is a must-win for Harbaugh if he wants to change the narrative about his ability to win games against top competition.  If he doesn't, he should be on the hot seat, regardless of whether any potential replacement is viable.  For Saban, a lot of pundits are saying he may have lost his edge, he needs to prove he hasn't.

This is a rare instance where I cheer for TTUN in a bowl game -- I want to see Paul Finebaum's head explode (he is a noted Michigan hater) and I want Harbaugh to stay forever.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

This is probably the only reasonably accurate portrayal of why LSU is #1.  But I also heard that 1-3 was separate from 4-6 according to Heather Dinich (I know nobody trusts her around here), so recusal shouldn't have come into play for the top seed.

Ultimately on the final week of the season, we looked bad for 30 minutes when LSU dominated start to finish.  In what had been a back and forth contest between our two teams for the latter half of the season, that was the final data point.  We can't be salty over that.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

The committee members have no financial stake in the rankings.  Had we been #1, we'd probably still get the Fiesta against Oklahoma and you know that Clemson/LSU in Atlanta would be ridiculous.

No matter who ends up in the finals, that game is going to be ratings gold either way, so even if a financial interest did exist, I think it's a wash either way.

Let's put to be any conspiracy theories that somehow cashflow is driving stuff.  It isn't.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

They did not really drop CCG losers -- Wisconsin would not have been #8 going into this week and Minnesota would have probably been #5 had that game gone the other way.  Georgia stayed at the top of the 2 loss pack despite getting completely destroyed.  So I stand by my post.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

Complaining about LSU jumping us when beating the #4 team by 4 scores on the same day we struggle to handle Wisconsin (a 27-0 second half notwithstanding) would have put TCU or Baylor in over us in 2014.  Let's not move the scales here.

Comment 09 Dec 2019

ESPN mentioned that LSU beat 4 top 13 teams.  They didn't consider that had 4 top 14 wins (1 team twice).  We also have an additional top 25 win in Cincinnati they do not have in that count.

This is why I wanted to play Minnesota in the B1G Championship -- rematches always favor the loser, and it gives us fresh blood.  In addition, I think we throttle Minnesota in the same manner that Georgia was throttled, and that would have been enough to give us the nod (we still end up with the same number of ranked wins though I think Wisconsin doesn't stay top 14 in that scenario but Minnesota becomes top 10).

With the way things ended up, and with how close the margins were last week, I am not willing to say the committee got it wrong quite yet, but I do think they undervalued the difficulty of a rematch (Oklahoma vs Baylor included in that).  38-10 over the #4 team is impressive in any context, and though I feel like our 38-7 win over Wisconsin originally was equally good, the stakes are higher in a championship game.  It was the one scenario where I felt like a jump was possible (LSU blowout, us closer game) and it is what it is.

Comment 04 Dec 2019

Here's a thought exercise:

If we hadn't yet played Wisconsin this season and they were 11-1 with the lone loss to Illinois, where would they be ranked?  Certainly above Utah and Oklahoma and Baylor yes?  And you could make a case for #4, but let's just say Georgia and Wisconsin would be right with each other.

So given that, which win is more impressive?  Dominating them or a close win?  I don't think it's fair to penalize a team for losing to the same team twice nor should you get much credit for beating them twice.  That said, we already have the blowout win.  LSU has to match that, IMO, in order to have a chance to get the top seed.

Comment 03 Dec 2019
I feel like the committee read my prediction and my personal ranking because other than the order of PSU, Wisconsin, Florida, I nailed it. Even got Alabama behind Auburn right, just outside the top 10!