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Indiana will upset Iowa

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Run_Fido_Run's picture
November 5, 2015 at 11:58am
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Short version: I like this year's Iowa team, but they don't match up well against Indiana. The Hawkeyes are a fundamentally sound team that can run the ball and stop the run, but they've yet to face a really good passing attack that can stretch defenses both horizontally and vertically. 

TLDR version: According to the "raw" NCAA stats, Iowa is 14th in pass efficiency defense; however, the passing attacks they've faced have ranked as follows in passing yards per game and team passing efficiency, respectively: ILL St (FCS), Iowa St (56th in passing yards/79th in pass efficiency), Pitt (97/34), North Texas (110/125), Wisconsin (45/74), Illinois (49/112), Northwestern (119/118), Maryland (113/126).

The QBs of the three semi-competent passing teams Iowa has faced so far this season - Pitt, Wisconsin, and Illinois - had pretty good days against Iowa:

  • Pitt QB, Natan Peterman: 20 of 29 for 227 yards passing, 2 TDs, 2 INTs. If you've watched Pitt, you know that their entire passing game centers around one WR, Tyler Boyd, who is basically Spiderman in cleats, constantly jumping up to snag Peterman's wayward throws. Boyd caught 10 balls for 131 yards against Iowa. To be fair, Pitt would prefer to run the ball, and Iowa shut down Pitt's running game, so they had to pass. Nevertheless, Peterman was more effective against Iowa than he was last Thursday against UNC, fwiw.
  • Wisc QB, Stave: 21 of 38 for 234 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs. Not a great outing by Stave, but he kept them in the game and certainly outplayed Beathard. Along with Stave's INTs, Wisconsin fumbled twice while driving deep into Iowa territory and lost 10-6.   
  • ILL QB, Wes Lunt: 25 of 42 for 317 yards, 1 TD, no INTs. This was Lunt's best passing performance this season. Gerinomo Allison, ILL's dynamic 6'4, 200 lb WR lit Iowa up for 148 yards receiving, his career best game.

For such reasons, it's not surprising that S&P ranks Iowa's pass defense a little lower than their raw stats: 39th in the nation.

Meanwhile, Indiana is coming off its bye week and both Sudfeld and RB Jordan Howard are getting healthy. 

Iowa is still running the old Norm Parker 4-3 base, using a lot of zone coverages. Indiana's offense and Sudfeld match up well against that approach. Iowa's DL will probably dominate the l-o-s, but Sudfeld will get the ball out quickly and Indiana is happy to chew up first downs using the short passing game. The Hooisers should be able to avoid third and longs against Iowa's tough DL, with Jordan Howard healthy again and due to Indiana's efficient passing attack (they rank 24th nationally in passing efficiency, and 15th in passing by S&P). When Iowa's "bend but don't break" defense allows Indiana in the red zone, Indiana is ranked 15th in red zone offense.

One of the benefits of zone is that DBs don't turn their backs as much to the QB, but Sudfeld is no threat to scramble for yards, anyway. 

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