Welcome to the Skull Session.
Ohio State's Mic'd Up series continued this week with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.
Micd with your favorite DC, Matt Patricia pic.twitter.com/OIZV4TLojN
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) August 14, 2025
Best line: "How is he alerting. We didn't even show anything."
* visible confusion *
Have a great Friday.
JUSTICE, AND ONLY JUSTICE. Ahem.
THE BEST OF THE BEST. OK, OK, one more preseason All-American — just one more. You've seen ESPN's, and you've seen The Athletic's. Now, it's time to see CBS Sports' preseason All-American team, which features Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs on the first team and Max Klare and Sonny Styles on the second team.
WR: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
There are many NFL Draft evaluators who believe that if he'd been eligible last year, Smith would've been one of the first receivers off the board — if not the first. Well, the NFL's loss is Ohio State's gain for the next two years, because the former No. 1 overall recruit was already one of the most dangerous weapons in the country during his freshman season and odds are he'll be better in 2025. It's not just the size and speed that separates Smith from his peers, it's his polish. He's already an incredible route runner. He's a total package at the spot. — Tom Fornelli
S: Caleb Downs, Ohio State
A Swiss Army Knife of a defender, Downs is listed as a safety, but he's not limited to it. The Alabama transfer saw snaps at corner last year, in the slot, in the box and lined up deep as a traditional safety. He's a defensive coordinator's dream because you can move him around and rely on him to get the job done. Downs is also a force on special teams, returning six punts last year, including one for a touchdown against Indiana. Who knows? Maybe we'll see him get snaps on offense this year, too. — Tom Fornelli
Klare appeared as the second-team tight end behind Vanderbilt's Eli Stower, while Styles appeared on the second-team linebacker behind Pitt's Kyle Louis and Georgia's CJ Allen.
Here are some other notable selections from CBS Sports' preseason All-American teams:
NOTE: Each of the players named will face Ohio State in the regular season
- First-team running back: Nick Singleton, Penn State
- First-team offensive guard: Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State
- First-team defensive end: Collin Simmons, Texas
- First-team defensive tackle: Zane Durant. Penn State
- First-team linebacker: Anthony Hill Jr., Texas
- First-team kicker: Dominic Zvada, Michigan
- Second-team center: Nick Dawkins, Penn State
- Second-team linebacker: Gabe Jacas, Illinois
- Second-team safety: Koi Perich, Minnesota
For the third time this week I will write (!), remember: To be the best, you have to beat the best.
THE COMPUTERS. This week, ESPN's Bill Connelly revealed his final preseason SP+.
"Media days are over. The polls are out. Early reports are that your team is looking absolutely fantastic in fall camp," Connelly wrote. "We've passed most of the mile markers in college football's long offseason, and the first games are less than two weeks away. Let's cross another landmark off the list: It's time to release the final preseason SP+ rankings."
Before I continue, here's a reminder from Connelly about how SP+ works:
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
* inhales *
* exhales *
Let's do this.
SP+
| TEAM | SP+ (RK) | OFF. | DEF. | ST | AVG. W | SOS RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | 26.1 | 38.0 (8) | 12.0 (3) | 0.3 (11) | 10.0 | 21 |
| ALABAMA | 25.5 | 39.3 (3) | 13.7 (6) | 0.2 (20) | 9.4 | 11 |
| GEORGIA | 24.2 | 37.7 (10) | 13.5 (5) | 0.6 (1) | 9.3 | 13 |
| PENN STATE | 24.2 | 38.8 (4) | 14.6 (8) | 0.1 (58) | 10.0 | 29 |
| TEXAS | 23.1 | 33.7 (24) | 10.7 (2) | -0.5 (135) | 9.1 | 12 |
While the College Football Power Index remains the same as when it released earlier this summer, I've included it below as a reference.
College Football Power Index
| TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS | 28.5 | 8.9% | 34.1% | 83.9% | 24.1% |
| GEORGIA | 26.6 | 6.3% | 26.9% | 78.6% | 17.9% |
| ALABAMA | 24.2 | 3.9% | 17.2% | 66.2% | 10.8% |
| OHIO STATE | 23.8 | 8.6% | 40.3% | 70.6% | 10.8% |
| PENN STATE | 21.5 | 7% | 25.1% | 63.8% | 7% |
One more reference. What does a human think about what the computers think? Here's ESPN's Heather Dinich on the College Football Power Index, which views Ohio State (10.8%) as the third-best national championship contender behind Texas (24.1%) and Georgia (17.9%).
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat agree. The defending national champs are again a playoff-caliber team, but before handing them a first-round bye, consider how difficult Ohio State's schedule is. In addition to the home season opener against Texas, Ohio State has road trips to Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin and rival Michigan -- none of which are gimmes. The back-to-back October trips to Illinois and Wisconsin will be trickier than they appear on paper, and Washington should be a better team this fall in the second season under coach Jedd Fisch. ESPN analytics projects Ohio State's lone regular-season loss will be at home in the season opener against Texas. But Penn State might have something to say about that on Nov. 1 in Columbus.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to prepare for the game that will help determine a spot in the Big Ten championship. While the Big Ten winner will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff, it's possible the runner-up could join the league champ in the selection committee's top four and also get a first-round bye as a top-four seed. If Ohio State loses to Texas and Penn State, though -- both at home -- a bye would be in jeopardy.
What the committee will like: A November to remember. The committee's first ranking will be released on Nov. 4 -- right after Ohio State starts the month against Penn State. If the Buckeyes go 5-0 in November with two wins against CFP top 25 teams, it will help Ohio State compensate for a possible second loss. Ohio State could make a case as the committee's top two-loss team if the Buckeyes lose to Texas and stumble elsewhere on the road. A close loss to a top 25 Illinois team might not be as bad as it sounds right now -- as long as they recover in November.
What the committee won't like: A second loss to an unranked opponent. It's not that a team can't overcome a bad loss, but it could mean the difference between a first-round bye and having to win four straight games to win the national title (again). The committee factors in everything -- including where the game was played and how it was won or lost -- but the caliber of opponent still matters. If Ohio State were to lose at Washington or Wisconsin, and neither of those teams finish in the CFP top 25, the committee could rank the Buckeyes behind another two-loss contender that suffered a better, close loss. Ohio State learned this last season when it sank four spots following its loss to unranked Michigan.
So, Ohio State is No. 1 in the SP+, No. 2 in the Coaches Poll, No. 3 in the AP Poll and No. 4 in the College Football Power Index?
Despite the inconsistencies, it's clear that the Buckeyes are one of the best teams in America. If Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz takes care of the football and depth continues to develop behind Kayden McDonald and Eddrick Houston at defensive tackle, Ohio State might be the best team at the end of the season, capturing its second consecutive College Football Playoff national title.
DEVELOPED HERE. This week, The Athletic's Dane Brugler continued his NFL Draft Summer Scouting Series with a look at the top wide receiver and safety prospects available in 2026. Two Buckeyes appeared on Brugler's lists: Carnell Tate as the No. 3 wide receiver and Caleb Downs as the No. 1 safety.
Here's what Brugler wrote about them:
No. 3: Carnell Tate, Ohio State
Best trait: Long, smooth target
With a tall, slender frame and light feet, Tate uses his quickness to elude press using long strides that help him build speed in a hurry. He tracks the ball well away from his frame and smoothly adjusts to attack from different angles. Tate is at his best on double-move routes (sluggos, out-and-ups), where he can sell his initial step with route speed and body language before transferring his momentum without gearing down.
Must improve: Route-running maturation
For a player entering his third season of college ball, Tate is a fine route runner. He understands timing and depth and closes cushions quickly, which is what NFL teams have come to expect from disciples of Brian Hartline. However, at times, he will round his turns or become too leggy at break points. Tate is still learning how to master his craft, and I am expecting gradual improvements in this area in 2025.
2026 NFL Draft outlook
Death, taxes and Ohio State producing NFL wide receivers. Five Buckeyes receivers have been first-round picks in the past four years, and Tate will be looking to keep the streak going. A top Chicago recruit by way of IMG Academy, Tate was the fourth receiver (behind Harrison, Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming) in 2023, and the third option (behind Smith and Egbuka) in 2024. Tate finished his sophomore year with 52 catches for 733 yards and four touchdowns.
Ohio State is breaking in a first-year quarterback and play caller in 2025 and has to replace several established starters from last year’s national title-winning squad. But the Buckeyes have arguably the top receiving duo in college football, and Tate will be a crucial weapon as defenses attempt to limit Smith. He enters the season as more of a Day 2 draft pick, but with the chance to rise.
No. 1: Caleb Downs, Ohio State
Best trait: Football processing
The best safeties in football play with a sixth sense — they understand what the opponent wants to do and anticipate what is about to happen. Regardless of alignment, Downs plays with this quality. He instantly breaks down route concepts and blocking schemes to get a head start and trigger without wasting steps. His preparation is elite, and intelligence like his is mandatory to be a productive pro.
Downs grades out above average in critical areas of playing the position, most notably his mental awareness, finishing skills and football processing.
Must improve: Creating turnovers
The totality of Downs’ impact on the Ohio State defense cannot be captured by the stat sheet alone. However, you’d still like to see more forced turnovers on his tape (and in the box score), especially if you’re a team that will be considering him early in the first round. In 16 games last season, Downs accounted for just two turnovers, both interceptions.
2026 NFL Draft outlook
It would be easy to argue that Downs is the best all-around football player in the 2026 NFL Draft class. However, he still may be drafted outside the top 10 (like Kyle Hamilton and Minkah Fitzpatrick) because of the way the NFL values his position in the draft. Over the last 15 years, only one safety (Jamal Adams) was selected in the top 10 — and Downs doesn’t have elite size or speed to get a testing bump during the process.
With his scheme-proof talent, though, he will be universally liked by scouts and coaches.
Contrary to Brugler's (early) beliefs, Tate will be a first-round pick and Downs will be a top-10 pick in 2026.
Book it!
SONG OF THE DAY. "God's Gonna Cut You Down" - Johnny Cash.
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