Ohio State vs. Michigan Preview: Buckeyes Seek Retribution for Four-Game Rivalry Losing Streak

Presented by First Bank of Central Ohio

#15 Michigan

Wolverines

9-2 (7-1)

roster  |  schedule

NOV. 29, 2025 - Noon

Michigan Stadium

Ann Arbor, MI

FOXOSU -9.5

Dice games are among the oldest in human history. Sets of dice dating back to 3,000 BCE – that’s more than 5,000 years old – have been found in Turkey. 

The ancient Romans were well-acquainted with the often six-sided game pieces. In the year 49 BCE, before he became dictator and laid the groundwork for Rome’s first emperors, Gaius Julius Caesar prepared to cross the Rubicon River, which defined Italy’s northern border, with a single legion of troops. A former Roman consul (like a president, but only for one year), he’d already established himself as a great military leader with his conquests and subsequent putdown of rebellions in Gaul. The people wanted desperately to elect him consul again. The Roman senate did not.

Political tensions built as both Caesar and his powerful former ally, Pompey, gathered troops around the Northern border of Italy. Caesar’s offer of disarmament was rejected he was declared an enemy of the state. He stood on the banks of the Rubicon with plans to march on Rome as an insurgent, triggering a civil war with a win-or-die proposition. He gazed upon his troops, then shouted to them a quote from the Greek playwright Menander: “Let a die be cast.”

The die is cast for Ohio State as it flies to Ann Arbor. There is no crossing back over the Rubicon. The Game is afoot. Four years of scar tissue, the weight of two states, the religious fervor that engulfs the Buckeyes’ rivalry with Michigan, postseason impacts, it’s all on the line. Saturday, 60 minutes of a far, far newer game than dice will be life and death for millions of invested fans.

Ohio State can’t buy into those emotions, however. Ryan Day and his players know better than anyone how much this game means. But the word “routine” got tossed around like bean bags in the Woody Hayes Athletic Center this week. Getting too worked up does nobody any good. Getting psyched out and playing tight is part of how the Buckeyes’ four-game skid in The Game started.

“You have to play with emotion, but you can't let it play with you. And you have to learn to use it as nitrous, not as a primary fuel source,” Day said on Tuesday. “And I think that's where our guys have to continue to just focus on the process of how they prepare for games. And they're going to have enough emotion when they get into the game. We don't need to incite any more of that during the week. They know how important this is. They know that this is our number one goal every year, to win this game. So that'll be our focus.”

Either way, war is on the shores.

The Headlines

Silver Bullets Set the Tone

Ohio State’s defense is the best in college football this year. But now is the time of the season where it can go from the best in 2025 to one of the best ever.

Shutting down Michigan starts with shutting down the run game. It’s a touch easier with star running back Justice Haynes likely out, but his tandem running mate Jordan Marshall isn’t far behind in production. And he’s an Ohio native. Ohio natives often play well in The Game.

Marshall averages 6.1 yards per carry this season, racking up 871 total rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s rattled off three straight 100-yard rushing games, including a career-high 185 yards and three touchdowns as Haynes watched from the sideline at Purdue. Michigan ranks 10th in the nation for both rushing yards per game (223.5) and yards per carry (5.6).

“He's a physical runner,” Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles said. “I think a lot of times you get those guys that are a little shorter, he's pretty muscular, low center of gravity, stuff like that (they’re hard to tackle). But I mean, I think all their backs are pretty good. They all do a good job.”

That ground game is a key matchup to watch with Ohio State’s No. 2-ranked run defense, which allows just 80 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry. Nose guard Kayden McDonald is a finalist for the Outland Trophy thanks to his space-devouring ways. Tywone Malone Jr. is the defense’s most improved player at the other starting defensive tackle spot. They match up with two seniors in Michigan center Greg Crippen and left guard Giovanni El-Hadi.

If Ohio State does stifle the running game, it should be a long day for freshman Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood. A five-star prospect with plenty of speed to scramble, he’s had an inconsistent first season. Among the Big Ten’s 17 qualified quarterbacks, Underwood is 13th in completion percentage at 62.2%. He is ninth in yards per pass attempt at 7.9. He’s thrown nine touchdowns with five interceptions.

Few defenses, if any, in college football are tougher for an inexperienced quarterback to face than Matt Patricia’s complicated structures. The constantly changing pictures in the secondary make things difficult to diagnose. Linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese have shut down every mobile threat at the position that Ohio State’s faced this year.

The path for the Buckeye defense to take control of The Game is clear.

Take to the Air?

If there were no outside circumstances, there’d be no question mark next to this headline. But there are a few to go over first.

Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are trending toward playing on Saturday. Smith all but confirmed he will play on the Downs 2 Business podcast. But if one or both of Ohio State’s All-American caliber wide receivers are out or limited, it does impact the Buckeyes’ ability to throw the ball. Julian Sayin’s chemistry with the next wave out wide looked rough against both UCLA and Rutgers.

Then there’s the weather. It’s projected to be cold, in the low 30s, in Ann Arbor, but Ohio State found success tossing the pigskin in similar temperatures during its first-round College Football Playoff game against Tennessee last December. Snow is a different story, however. It’s tougher for a defensive back to gain traction covering a route, but it can also throw off the timing between quarterback and receiver. There’s snow in Saturday’s forecast, projected in the afternoon. It could start falling early in the game. It could start after the first half. It might not start until the contest is concluded.

Michigan is stronger against the run (10th nationally in run defense) than the pass (52nd). All things being equal, Ohio State is much stronger throwing the ball with Smith, Tate and Sayin, three of the best players in the country regardless of position, than it is running it. The Buckeyes are No. 5 in yards per pass attempt (9.4) but No. 33 in yards per carry (5). 

If a reliance on the passing game – especially when building a lead early – is required for Ohio State, then that’s what the Buckeyes must do. Ryan Day seems willing.

RELATED Ryan Day Not Obsessing Over Winning Rushing Battle vs. Michigan: “We've Got to Do What It Takes to Win the Game”

Win on the Margins

There is always unexpected craziness that happens in The Game. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown. A first-drive interception that sets a team up for free points. Strange turnovers and broken special teams plays.

Converting in the red zone, winning third and fourth downs and avoiding mistakes in all three phases is crucial for Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Especially winning, or at least equalizing the turnover battle. Both teams have been decent at that this season, the Buckeyes at +5 and the Wolverines at +4.

Despite a few issues early in the year, Ohio State is 23rd nationally in red zone touchdown percentage at 71.2%. Michigan is 59th at 63%. Defensively, the Buckeyes are third (36.8%) and the Wolverines are 26th (52.9%). Getting seven points rather than three at the end of a long drive can always be a deciding factor in The Game.

“We've got to do what it takes to win the game,” Day said. “Everyone's got to do their job. That's the most important thing. Coaches and players, that's the bottom line. Now, what does (winning) take? It takes a lot of things. We can list all the things, but you probably heard me say those, what it takes to win these games over and over again, so I'm a broken record. But if we win the turnover battle, our chances increase of winning the game. If we win the X plays, you start going through all the different things. There's a lot that goes into it. But at the end of the day, our No. 1 goal is to win the game.”

Win the game. Win on the margins. Win in the game planning and preparation phase. Win everywhere.

Watch Out for These Guys

Michigan DE Derrick Moore

Defensive end Derrick Moore talked a bit of smack to the Buckeyes at Big Ten Media Days in July, but he's been the anchor of Michigan's defensive front this year. His 9.5 sacks lead the Wolverines and are second-most in the Big Ten, trailing only Minnesota defensive end Anthony Smith. He's added 28 tackles, three pass breakups and two forced fumbles.

Michigan WR Andrew Marsh

David Banks – Imagn Images.

The freshman Marsh has emerged as Michigan’s top receiving threat this season, pacing the Wolverines with 42 receptions for 641 yards and three touchdowns. His breakout performance came on Nov. 15 in UM’s tight 21-16 scrape with Northwestern, when he amassed 12 receptions for 189 yards. Ohio State cornerbacks Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Mathews Jr. will give him a fantastic matchup.

Ohio State LB Arvell Reese

Native Ohioans are always prime candidates for big performances in the game. Both Reese and Styles hail from the Buckeye State, but Reese’s versatility will be key to stopping Michigan’s run game, containing Underwood in the pocket and pressuring him with blitzes. A finalist for the Butkus Award, Reese has 59 tackles with 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.

Game Week Talk

“I didn't like a few other people (at Ohio State), and that's truly why I didn't pick there. I think Coach (Tony) Alford would tell you the same. He came here, and he sees the best head coach in the Big Ten, in college football, and how he carries himself and how he puts himself over the team. It's all about culture, and that's what I wanted to be around. I didn't want to be around people that were about themselves, and I truly just believe that.”– Michigan RB Jordan Marshall on why he chose the Wolverines

Marshall, a Cincinnati native, took some shots across the bow at the Buckeyes with ammunition from former Ohio State-turned-Michigan running backs coach Tony Alford. It’s ironic to talk about “culture” for a program that had a massive illegal advance scouting scheme for three years and “best head coach in the Big Ten” for one that went 8-5 in his first season but hey, you do you, Marshall.

“I’ve been hating them since high school. So it’s been, to me, forget the Team Up North. (...) We’ve been waiting all season to play these guys. So, we’ve just got to go out there and play our game and be our best.”– Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith on The Game

Smith is the ultimate competitor. It’s been clear since he got to Ohio State. It was reiterated at Big Ten Media Days this July. Losses sit with him, and he’s hungry to avenge this one. In fact, he promised he’d beat Michigan each of his final two years with the Buckeyes. Time to make good on that guarantee.

“The best team in the country. The receivers are elite. Four, Jeremiah, is elite. Carnell Tate is elite. They’ve got Brandon Inniss, he's elite. Tight end Max Klare is a really good player as well. Quarterback is elite. They've got elite players everywhere on the field from a skill position standpoint. Running back is really good. The line is good. It's a challenge I know our defense is ready to take on.”– Michigan HC Sherrone Moore on Ohio State's offense

There’s a recognition of the talent the Buckeyes possess by Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore, especially at the offensive skill positions. Talent discrepancies didn’t matter after Ohio State played into the Wolverines’ claws in 2024. It’s critical that Day properly utilizes his weapons this time around.

Get Smart

• This is the 121st edition of The Game. Michigan has a 62-52-6 all-time record vs. Ohio State.
• It’s the 50th time Ohio State (No. 1) and Michigan (No. 15) are both ranked in the AP poll entering The Game, the most ranked matchups between any two teams in college football.
• Ohio State linebacker Joey Velazquez played for Michigan from 2019-23.
• Michigan running backs coach Tony Alford was Ohio State’s running backs coach from 2015-23.
• Backup guard Gabe VanSickle is Ohio State’s only player from Michigan.
• Michigan has seven players from Ohio including starting running back Jordan Marshall (Cincinnati) and reserve quarterback Chase Herbstreit (Cincinnati), the son of former Ohio State quarterback Kirk Herbstreit.
• Ohio State will clinch a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game if it beats Michigan.
• ESPN’s College GameDay and FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff will both be in Ann Arbor for The Game. Ohio State has a 46-21 all-time record in games where GameDay is on site, including a 5-4 record in The Game when GameDay is in attendance.

How It Plays Out

Line: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 43.5

Avoid mistakes, play to your strengths and allow the defense to control the game. The formula feels simple. There’s a lot more that goes into winning football games, as Day mentioned, but Ohio State has the best collection of talent in the country. If it’s allowed to show itself, the Michigan losing streak might end comfortably.

A fast start is key. Entering with confidence is one thing; sustaining it before more than 100,000 hostile fans is another. Michigan’s offense also isn’t built to play from behind. The first few drives of the game will not only be telling from those perspectives for Ohio State, but from a game plan perspective, too.

The Eleven Warriors staff all have the Buckeyes righting the ship in the rivalry. Only one man, deputy editor Dan Hope, has it as a one-score game.

The die is cast. Nothing left to do but play The Game.

Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction
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