Looking to snap a four-game losing streak to that Team Up North, Ryan Day looked loose but serious during his weekly press conference inside the Woody Hayes Athletic Center on Tuesday.
Considering the angst inside and outside the program created by those struggles against the Wolverines, it would be understandable if Day seemed tight but he came off intent on setting an example for his players and coaches to follow which is to be laser focused on the task at hand without creating additional unnecessary pressure to perform.
That said, as storylines gravitate toward the battle of two first-year starting quarterbacks, the availability of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, and the tried and true topic of debating the importance of playing physical to effectively run the ball and stop the run, Day knows winning the turnover battle, executing on special teams and playing disciplined football will be every bit as critical to leaving Ann Arbor with a W in hand.
We're all a sum of our experiences and you learn from things and you grow from things and you just try to do everything you can, again, to put your guys in a situation to be successful. And that's it. And we're going to rely on our experiences going into this week...
We do things well. We, you know, we have our failures, but you got to grow from them and that's it. And so, this team right here is a different team. They have a great look in their eye. I think that's the most important thing here...
And, you know, what goes on today is the most important thing. And then we have to go do it in the game. And that's it. We have to field kicks. We have to make our kicks. We have to take care of the football. You know, all the things that we work on because if we don't, we put ourselves at risk.. Everyone's got to do their job and making sure we're prepared to go.– Ryan Day
Looking at numbers in each of the last four losses to Michigan, it's clear winning the turnover margin, capitalizing on turnovers created, converting field goals and staying disciplined were keys for the Wolverines, as Ohio State largely struggled in those same areas.
| SEASON | OSU TO | UM TO | OSU PTS OFF TO | UM PTS OFF TO | OSU FG | UM FG | OSU PEN | UM PEN | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 2/19 | 4/50 | 10-13 |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 1/5 | 3/34 | 24-30 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 9/91 | 5/30 | 23-45 |
| 2021 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 10/66 | 2/20 | 27-42 |
The Buckeyes turned it over twice and Michigan scored a touchdown off one of those in each of the last three matchups. Across the four-game skid, Ohio State's lost the turnover battle 6-3 leading to a 21-3 edge in points off turnovers for Michigan.
Field goals haven't been Ohio State's friend of late either as Jayden Fielding missed 2-of-3 last year in a 3-point loss and went 1-for-2 in a 6-point loss in 2023. Meanwhile, Michigan converted 5-of-5 tries in those games and has made 6-of-7 during the current four-game win streak.
Finally, while OSU did a great job limiting penalties the last two matchups, the Buckeyes racked up nine and 10 penalties in the 2022 and '21 losses. Michigan was a bit sloppy last year leading to 50 penalty yards but in the other three games, it had no more more than 34 penalty yards.
As you'd expect, most of those tables turned in the five straight games Ohio State won from 2015-19, dating back to when Jim Harbaugh took over at Michigan. (Those five wins were part of a larger eight-game win streak but I opted to start this upon Harbaugh's arrival for reasons unknown.)
| SEASON | OSU TO | UM TO | OSU PTS OFF TO | UM PTS OFF TO | OSU FG | UM FG | OSU PEN | UM PEN | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 7/66 | 5/38 | 56-27 |
| 2018 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 12/150 | 7/72 | 62-39 |
| 2017 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 9/75 | 6/50 | 31-20 |
| 2016 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 2/6 | 7/59 | 30-27 |
| 2015 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 5/39 | 7/72 | 42-13 |
Ohio State owned the turnover margin across those five wins, 9-3, leading to an incredible 42-9 edge in points off turnovers.
Field goals weren't quite as big a factor knowing three of the five games weren't close. That said, Tyler Durbin missed two short field goals in 2016 and Urban Meyer opted not to try another one late in the game due to those struggles, which all worked against Ohio State simply winning in regulation before eventually prevailing in double-OT.
Penalties didn't largely correlate either, at least in four matchups, but in that ultra-close 2016 game, the Buckeyes had just two penalties while the Wolverines racked up seven for 59 yards including an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Harbaugh that helped Ohio State cut into a 17-7 deficit in the third quarter, as explained in my Five Things the next morning.
Harbaugh received an unsportsmanlike conduct flag after Michigan was called for offsides as Ohio State lined up for its first offensive play following Baker's key interception. A Michigan defensive lineman crossed the line of scrimmage and appeared to hit an OSU offensive lineman triggering the flag. Harbaugh went berserk over the call, launching a stack of papers and smashing his headset on the ground prompting the unsportsmanlike hanky, which combined with the offsides, moved Ohio State from the 13 to the 4-yard line without snapping the ball. Ohio State scored two plays later cutting the UM lead to 17-14.
Bottom line, an incredible amount of variables can swing the outcome of a contest but oftentimes the ones not written about as extensively beforehand are what become so crucial in The Game such as winning the turnover battle, executing on special teams and playing with discipline.
