Breaking Down Julian Sayin’s Superb Game Against Penn State As the Ohio State Quarterback Becomes Favorite to Win Heisman Trophy

By Josh Poloha on November 4, 2025 at 9:20 am
Julian Sayin
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Only eight starts into his career, we're running out of words to describe just how good Julian Sayin has been following nearly every game this season.

That upward trend and those loss-for-words continued throughout Ohio State's dominant win over Penn State on Saturday.

Sayin, much like the Buckeyes as a whole, dominated yet again. After completing nine of his first 10 passes, Sayin threw two straight incompletions midway through the second quarter. From there, he completed each of his last 11 throws for 206 yards and three touchdowns.

In all, Sayin completed 20 of 23 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns against the Nittany Lions. For the second time this season, he had more touchdowns than incompletions in a game (he had only one incompletion while throwing for four scores against Grambling State in the second game of the season).

Sayin's performance against Penn State is the best of the season in terms of QBR, as ESPN graded it as a 99.1.

“Julian's really getting more and more confidence every day,” Day said after the game. “He works at it. I think the preparation that he puts in in that quarterback room is starting to show. His mind works as quick as the ball comes out. He's obviously accurate.” 

To take a closer look at Sayin's performance against Penn State, we charted all 23 of his pass attempts in the win. (Note: The passing chart is categorized by how many yards the quarterback threw the ball in the air past the line of scrimmage on each attempt and whether the ball reached its target inside or outside the hashes, though the stats listed include yards gained after the catch on each completion.

Julian Sayin vs. Penn State

Sayin dominated Penn State as a whole, but especially in the intermediate and deep areas of the field. For the first time this season, he completed all of his throws at least 10 yards downfield, going 7-for-7 for 240 yards and two touchdowns.

For the second straight game, Sayin had one of his best games of the season throwing the deep ball. After attempting a season-high five passes 20-plus yards downfield against Wisconsin a game before, Sayin completed a season-high four passes in that area of the field, connecting on all four attempts for 188 yards and a touchdown, including two 57-yard throws and a 45-yard toss.

“A lot of practice going into the week,” Sayin said. “We practice those a lot. And I think Coach Hartline and Coach Fessler and Coach Day, we do a great job of preaching that in practice. And then they make great adjustments and we're able to bring them in. And ran great routes to get behind (the defense). And we had a great scheme because we were able to get a flat-footed safety and have Carnell and Jeremiah run right by them.”

Before Saturday, he had completed only five of his last 11 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield after completing each of his first seven deep balls to start the season. After the Penn State game, Sayin's 72.7% completion rate in that area of the field and 32.7 yards per attempt on those throws lead the FBS.

Over the last two games, Sayin has completed all 11 of his passes thrown between 10-19 yards downfield for 173 yards and three touchdowns. To put that in perspective, in the first six games of the season, he had thrown for only 279 yards and two touchdowns combined in that area of the field.

Julian Sayin at Different Passing Depths This Season
DEPTH (YARDS) 2025
20+ 16/22 (72.7%), 721 YARDS (32.7 PER ATTEMPT), 8 TD
10-19 27/40 (67.5%), 452 YARDS (11.3 PER ATTEMPT), 5 TD
0-9 93/113 (82.3%), 770 YARDS (6.8 PER ATTEMPT), 7 TD, 2 INT
BEHIND LOS 40/43 (93%), 245 YARDS (5.7 PER ATTEMPT), 3 TD, 1 INT

Much like he did against Wisconsin, Sayin dominated Penn State both in play action and without it. After throwing six touchdowns with play action in the first seven games of the season, he threw four touchdowns in that concept on Saturday.

His 12 pass attempts without play action were tied for his second-fewest of the season, even though he averaged 14.8 yards per attempt in that concept, the most since he averaged 17.8 yards per attempt without play action against Grambling State in the second game of the season.

Sayin's 79.2% completion rate on play-action passes is the third-best in the country among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 50 passes in that concept, while his 1,089 yards on play-action passes are also the third-most in the FBS. Ohio State has run play action on 45.9% of Sayin's dropbacks, which is the 11th-highest in the nation.

Julian Sayin in Play Action vs. Non-Play Action (via PFF)
  PLAY ACTION NON-PLAY ACTION
vs. penn state 9/11 (81.8%), 139 YARDS (12.6 PER ATTEMPT), 4 TD 11/12 (91.7%), 177 YARDS (14.8 PER ATTEMPT)
At wisconsin 18/21 (85.7%), 181 YARDS (8.6 PER ATTEMPT), 1 TD 18/21 (85.7%), 213 YARDS (10.1 PER ATTEMPT), 3 TD
at Illinois 5/9 (55.6%), 50 YARDS (5.6 PER ATTEMPT) 14/18 (77.8%), 116 YARDS (6.4 PER ATTEMPT), 2 TD
vs. minnesota 11/15 (73.3%), 186 YARDS (12.4 PER ATTEMPT), 2 TD 12/12 (100%), 140 YARDS (11.7 PER ATTEMPT), 1 TD
at washington 10/12 (83.3%), 95 YARDS (7.9 PER ATTEMPT) 12/16 (75%), 113 YARDS (7.1 PER ATTEMPT), 2 TD
vs. ohio 9/11 (81.8%), 150 YARDS (13.6 PER ATTEMPT), 1 TD, 1 INT 16/21 (76.2%), 197 YARDS (9.4 PER ATTEMPT), 2 TD, 1 INT
vs. Grambling State 11/11 (100%), 164 YARDS (14.9 PER ATTEMPT), 1 TD 7/8 (87.5%), 142 YARDS (17.8 PER ATTEMPT), 3 TD, 1 INT
VS. TEXAS 4/8 (50%), 58 YARDS (7.3 PER ATTEMPT), 1 TD 9/12 (75%), 68 YARDS (5.7 PER ATTEMPT)
2025 SEASON 80/101 (79.2%), 1,089 YARDS (10.8 PER ATTEMPT), 10 TD, 1 INT 96/117 (82.1%), 1,100 YARDS (9.4 PER ATTEMPT), 13 TD, 2 INT

Sayin completed all 14 of his passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns when the pocket was kept clean. Ironically, he also threw for 158 yards and two touchdowns under pressure, even though he attempted only nine passes under pressure, completing six of those.

The redshirt freshman completed eight of nine throws for 129 yards and four touchdowns when Penn State blitzed. Although the Nittany Lions blitzed on only nine of Sayin's 24 dropbacks, he was under pressure 15 times. That said, he completed 12 of 14 passes for 187 yards when Penn State didn't blitz.

While Sayin has only been under pressure on 23.8% of dropbacks, which is tied for the eighth-best mark in the FBS among quarterbacks who have been pressured on at least 40 dropbacks, he has been the best quarterback under pressure all season. Sayin has completed 70.2% of his passes under pressure, the best mark in the FBS. His 9.7 yards per attempt while under pressure are the fourth-highest in the country.

Sayin's 83.1% completion rate when opponents blitz is the best in the country, while his 14 touchdowns against the blitz are also the most in the FBS. Opponents have brought extra pressure on 33.3% of the quarterback's dropbacks, tied for 30th in the country.

Julian Sayin Against Pressure this Season (via PFF)
PRESSURE 2025
kept clean 143/171 (83.6%), 1,734 YARDS (10.1 PER ATTEMPT), 17 TD, 2 INT
under pressure 33/47 (70.2%), 455 YARDS, (9.7 PER ATTEMPT), 6 TD, 1 INT
not blitzed 117/147 (79.6%), 1,500 YARDS (10.2 PER ATTEMPT), 9 TD, 2 INT
blitzed 59/71 (83.1%), 689 YARDS (9.7 PER ATTEMPT), 14 TD, 1 INT

Below, we take a look at four of Sayin's best throws in the game and a great scramble he had:

Good Throw: 18-Yard Completion to Jeremiah Smith

With a linebacker underneath, a cornerback on Smith's side and a safety closing in, Sayin throws an outstanding back-shoulder ball to his wide receiver where only the star can catch it.

Great Scramble: Nine-Yard Run

On 3rd-and-5 and with Ohio State only leading 10-7 in the latter half of the second quarter, Sayin scrambles away from pressure and runs for nine yards and a first down in a crucial play.

Julian Sayin scramble

Caleb Downs was impressed by the play as well.

"The third down, he broke the pocket, I was like 'Ooo hoo hoo hoo hoo, he making plays,'" safety Caleb Downs said. "But, I mean, I'm just excited for my guy."

The Buckeyes scored a touchdown three plays later.

Good Throw: 45-Yard Touchdown to Carnell Tate

Although it was a tiny bit underthrown with pressure closing in, Sayin throws a deep touchdown to Tate, who makes yet another impressive catch.

Good Throw: 57-Yard Completion to Carnell Tate

Sayin throws it perfectly to Tate in stride to set up Ohio State for a touchdown to begin the second half.

Good Throw: 57-Yard Completion to Jeremiah Smith

With pressure closing in, Smith doesn't get rattled and finds Smith, who somehow got past two Penn State defensive backs, in stride for another 57-yard deep bomb.

Sayin has now completed at least 85% of his passes and thrown for 315-plus yards and four touchdowns in each of his last two games. He has completed at least 85% of his passes in three of the last four games. He has completed at least 70% of his passes and thrown multiple touchdowns in each of Ohio State's last seven games.

The redshirt freshman is not only the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as things currently stand, but he ranks among the best in the FBS in each of the following key passing statistics:

  • First in completion percentage (80.7%)
  • Second in yards per attempt (10.0)
  • First in passer rating (197.1)
  • Third in passing touchdowns (23)
  • First in QBR (90.9)

The difference between Sayin and the quarterback with the second-best completion percentage in the FBS (Washington's Demond Williams Jr., 73.1%) is more than the difference between Williams and the 44th-best completion percentage in the country among qualified quarterbacks (Tennessee's Joey Aguilar, 65.7%).

Sayin's passing chart through eight games of the 2025 season:

Julian Sayin through eight games of the 2025 season
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