Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total and Betting Props to Watch for Ohio State vs. Purdue

Before jumping into this week's sports betting analysis for Ohio State vs. Purdue, hope you cashed last Saturday!

@EasyEis called it https://t.co/YmAVvPgRhq pic.twitter.com/FygqWIhsNq

— Ramzy Nasrallah (@ramzy) October 7, 2023

PICK SIX BUCKEYES

The @OhioStateFB defense makes another big play pic.twitter.com/6NME0in9gV

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 7, 2023

No time for resting on laurels, however. A new week brings new opportunities.

Tomorrow's road trip to Purdue will serve as the first visit Ohio State has made to Boilermaker territory since the tragic shortcoming in 2018 that ultimately upended any College Football Playoff hopes for Dwayne Haskins that season. The Buckeyes own a 3-5 record at Ross-Ade Stadium since the start of the new millennium, with an even worse win rate under those circumstances against the spread.

Can Ryan Day and company get OSU one step closer to a .500 mark in the recent series between these schools? Or will the boogeymen draped in black and old gold successfully sabotage another campaign — along with the bankroll of the Columbus faithful?

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider the sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Purdue.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -19.5

Spread bettors last weekend must have thoroughly enjoyed watching Ohio State sputter out of the gate before narrowly earning a push for the folks that wagered on a Buckeye cover. Fans can only hope the line judge that worked the game last Saturday against Maryland ultimately failed to protect the Terrapins +19.5 investment he made prior to kickoff.

very normal stuff for a line judge who has been jawing with the head coach (!) to flag pre-snap motion only after the play produces a touchdown https://t.co/2N93X2JGir

— Ramzy Nasrallah (@ramzy) October 8, 2023

Surely, Ohio State will have better luck in West Lafayette! Right?

Phantom flags aside, history says the Buckeyes cannot afford another bad start against Purdue similar to the one they brought upon themselves in their most recent contest. Somewhat encouraging for OSU bettors should be the 3-1 record Ohio State owns over its last 10 total games versus Purdue in which the line closed within 4.5 points of the current lofty spread — the lone ATS loss arriving at home in 2008.

However, that trend lives on some cherry-picking of the results. Three of those four meetings occurred in Columbus, and expanding the scope out to all games closing at a double-digit spread evens Ohio State's record out to 3-3 in such cases. Those two additional losses both exist as home underdog wins for the Boilermakers in which the Buckeyes entered favored to win by 12 points.

The more useful lens through which to examine performance against the spread would be to look directly at all of Ohio State's visits to West Lafayette over the last ~25 years. The results are as bad and brutal on wallets as Buckeye fans probably expect.

A 2-6 record against the spread at Purdue's house since the 2000 season, and a 3-5 outright record along the same timeline. Do you really need any other reasons to steer clear of betting the Buckeyes to cover a three-score margin of victory for the second time in as many weeks?

The Total: 52

After nearly a decade of offensive shootouts, last weekend the Ohio State/Maryland series finally saw an under hit on a point total projection for the first time in the entire history of the Buckeyes and Terrapins facing each other.

While that game witnessed the end of one trend, it allowed the continuation of the more recent narrative regarding shift in game flow. The new clock rules have left teams with less possessions available on average to work with than before, and fewer opportunities for each side to score subsequently produces lower scoring tallies.

The once-revered offensive juggernaut known as The Ohio State University has hit an over in just one of its five games this season — the outlier arriving at home against Western Kentucky. That may help explain why the line on the point total for this weekend's game with Purdue briefly dipped to 49 this week, which would have closed as the first Buckeye game with a point total below 50 in several seasons.

Specifically concerning the Boilermakers, the point totals over the last 10 meetings between Ohio State and Purdue find themselves at a nearly even split of four overs and six unders, with the two most recent contests eclipsing extremely high marks in the 60s.

But once again, for the purpose of putting this matchup into appropriate context, looking at all the post-Y2K results that took place in West Lafayette should provide the most insight for making an informed betting decision. Such an angle reveals five unders have hit across the eight games at Purdue since 2000, but perhaps more interestingly, only one game featured a higher projected point total than that currently in place for the 2023 showdown.

The Boilermakers have enigmatically either failed to escape single digits or converted at least four scoring opportunities in all of their home games against the Buckeyes across the last 25 years. If Saturday plays out as an encore to the Tressellball era that saw four straight unders hit in West Lafayette from 2002-2009, this could be another long afternoon for Ohio State fans — or at least another stomach-churning first half.

Prop Watch: TreVeyon Henderson to Score 2+ TDs

As alluded to in the introduction, Prop Watch graciously moves to 2-2 on the season after last week's +475 call for the Ohio State Defense to score an anytime touchdown. That follows up the +215 special from the Notre Dame game for Emeka Egbuka to secure 25+ receiving yards in each half. After whiffing on Cade Stover and Marvin Harrison Jr. touchdown props to begin the season, the return to .500 on plus-money picks certainly serves as a welcome one.

Now, the OSU props market finds itself on a bit of uneven footing this week — not only because the Silver Bullets find themselves lined anywhere between +325 and +800 at major American sportsbooks to score an encore touchdown against Purdue.

Last week's late scratch of TreVeyon Henderson from the starting lineup threw off bettors and bookies alike. The tight-lipped injury reporting typically upheld by the Buckeye football staff makes it difficult for anyone beyond the team to gather a concrete read on which running back will get the start for OSU this weekend. Chip Trayanum and Henderson each opened the week with identical 2-1 odds on finding the end zone, but now the former has witnessed his price tag gain back 80 points of value in recent days.

Henderson still warmed up on the field for Maryland despite ultimately sitting out. On Thursday, Ryan Day indicated the Buckeyes' starting running back already seems "much better than he was last week" health-wise. If TreVeyon returns in his usual starting role chock full of early-down touches, what sort of betting angle should Buckeye fans look for given the early uncertainty in the market this week?

A brief glimpse at the board for any player to score 2+ TDs in this game reveals the market still has Henderson and Trayanum slotted within the same price range of each other at +210 odds. Given the former's penchant for multiple-touchdown games, it seems as though these props have yet to encounter the same corrections that Trayanum's anytime touchdown price tag already experienced.

Henderson has scored multiple rushing touchdowns in two of his four games this season. He also scored a pair of touchdowns in Ohio State's most difficult road game a year ago at Penn State, though his own solid performance was overshadowed by J.T. Tuimoloau's historic afternoon of havoc.

Perhaps most impressively, Henderson visited the end zone at least twice in half of all the regular season games he played as a freshman in the 2021 season. Henderson's only career game against Purdue stands among that total, an afternoon in which he turned 14 touches into over 100 offensive scrimmage yards and a pair of scores on the ground.

Given the lack of immediate market correction off Ryan Day's comments, a tendency to find multiple scores when healthy and recent success in both a road setting and against Purdue, Henderson profiles this week as the man worth the risk of a plus-money wager. However, Buckeye fans should not get greedy, as a clean bill of health for Henderson on his way back to Columbus would hit just as nicely as any moonshot prop or parlay.

Good luck, and go Buck$.