After a crucial home win over Penn State last weekend in primetime, Ohio State gets back at it tomorrow with what could be a tricky test against a Nebraska squad. The Cornhuskers sport an awful won-loss record but they love to lose one score games and they've generated a host of respectable offensive and defensive metrics.
Knowing Scott Frost is clinging to life down in Lincoln, there's no doubt a win over Ohio State would go a long way in giving him some job security.
Across the field, Ryan Day's squad debuted at No. 5 in the College Football Playoff's initial rankings this past Tuesday and are basically in a survive and advance mode in their quest to another Big Ten title and capture a third-straight CFP bid.
Will the Cornhuskers provide a stiff test or will the Buckeyes come out with some gusto in an effort to Win November?
For answers to those queries and more, I welcome 11W's own Ramzy Nasrallah, Kevin Harrish and Matt Gutridge to this week's roundtable.
Nebraska is considered by some to be the “best bad team” in the country despite its 1-5 conference record featuring back-to-back losses against Minnesota and Purdue heading into tomorrow’s game. What’s one aspect of Scott Frost’s team that could potentially give Ohio State trouble tomorrow?
Ramzy: They’re just self-destructive and a handful of plays from being undefeated with wins over Michigan, Michigan State and Oklahoma. Nebraska is a high-ceiling low-floor program and you just never know what you’re going to get. There’s nothing they do poorly on a weekly basis. If you enjoy post-Halloween horror stories: Nebraska putting it all together and not blowing both of its feet off with unforced errors is definitely good enough to beat Ohio State having a clunker.
Kevin: Yeah, I mean, I'm usually the guy that comes online to tell you all how Ohio State's opponent is actually bad and that the Buckeyes are going to roll, but even I think this team is significantly better than its record, perhaps even the best 3-6 team of all time! They've lost to three top-10 teams by a touchdown or less, and had two more one-score losses against No. 20 Minnesota and Purdue, which is going to be ranked after the Boilermakers beat Michgian State this week. They're led by Adrian Martinez, who advanced stats says is legitimately one of the best quarterbacks in the country (his only bad game was last week) and have a pretty solid defense.
Don't get me wrong, I still think Ohio State is going to dominate, but this Husker team is legit.
Matt: Adrian Martinez is a threat with his arm and his legs. If he can keep the errant passes to a minimum, and hold onto the ball when running, Martinez can put stress on the defense. Especially on third down.
With that said, Martinez is a turnover machine and will likely be responsible for at least one costly mistake.
In grinding out a tough win against Penn State last week, the Buckeyes struggled in a few areas, notably, getting off the field on third down, settling for field goals in the red zone, the center position, and 10 penalties including seven pre-snap flags on the offense. Which of those issues concerns you most heading into tomorrow? Or is there something else giving you more angst?
Matt: The third-down defense has been a concern. It is a giant letdown when the defense is a play away from getting off of the field and is unsuccessful at stopping the opponent. There have been occasions this season when you see the shoulders and heads of Ohio State's players drop when the opponent keeps a drive alive by converting on third down.
The Silver Bullets are currently ranked 100th in third-down conversion defense. Hoping the defense can (ab)use Nebraska on this critical down Saturday. No matter the distance, I'll be sweating every time it's third down.
Ramzy: Clifford and Martinez are very different quarterbacks - Ohio State bringing pressure to Clifford resulted in clutch play after clutch play. That same strategy is more likely to turn Martinez into the gaffe machine that’s clouded his otherwise occasional video game performances. I don’t think Nebraska is going to be calling Ohio State’s plays prior to the snap like Penn State was. What gives me angst is Nebraska putting together a perfect game and Ohio State clunking like it clunked against Oregon, Tulsa and Penn State. Clunkers generally come in twos and they had one last week.
Kevin: To be clear, nothing really scares me *this week.* I very much respect Nebraska, but I still think Ohio State is the decidedly better team and is going to win this game regardless of what goes right or wrong. That said, it does concern me in the long run that Ohio State has played two games against ranked opponents and struggled to put the ball in the end zone in both of those games. But once is an instance, twice is a coincidence. If they that happens again...
Also, I don't know if "concerned" is quite the right word yet, but I am frustrated with the center position. With all due respect to Luke Wypler, it blows my mind that Ohio State signed the top high school center in the country in back-to-back years only for both of them to switch to guard and for the Buckeyes to play two converted tackles ahead of them there anyway (though I do understand Harry Miller's been injured). It's just frustrating that Matthew Jones is clearly one of the best interior linemen on the team, if not the country, and there doesn't seem to be a way to get him onto the field, even though center has been the obvious weak link. I get that he probably hasn't even repped at center in a long time, but I think that fact only adds to my frustration.
Ryan Day’s squad ranked No. 5 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday. Did the committee get it right based on what you’ve seen up to this point? What would your top seven look like right now?
Kevin: I think Ohio State was probably too high given what they've actually accomplished so far, but I don't think it really matters either way. The Buckeyes are either going to play themselves in this month, or play themselves out. They could have been ranked outside of the top-10 for all I care.
Outside of that, Alabama at No. 2 is a hilarious middle finger to anyone who tries to even pretend that there's any objectivity in these rankings and Cincinnati at No. 6 is probably the 10,000th sign that the committee does not give the slightest damn about Group of Five teams. But none of that necessarily surprised me.
Matt: It's widely understood that the only rankings that matter are released on the first Sunday of December. However, we are made to believe that the initial rankings do matter in jockeying for the top four spots in the final rankings. At this point, we are to believe that Ohio State is in a position to control its own destiny.
However, the top four teams in the final CFP rankings have always mirrored the top four teams in the final mock BCS rankings. The CFP and BCS top four have been exact matches since the playoffs have been in existence. Big ups to 11W member, I_Run_The_Dave, for shedding light on the situation in seasons past.
Using the BCS formula, this week's CFP rankings would have looked like this: Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan.
My top seven, based on the five projected conference champs and two at large bids: Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Oregon, Alabama and Wake Forest. Yes, my top four is completely biased on wanting to see a certain semi-final game. I cannot wait for the day that all conference champs get automatic bids and the popularity and beauty contest that we now know goes away.
Ramzy: I would prefer the Buckeyes to be ranked No.16 in the initial poll because the last time that happened is the only time Ohio State has ever won the CFP title and I subscribe to dark, trolly magic. The correct top 7 would have been 1. Who 2. Cares 3. There’s 4. Too 5. Much 6. Football 7. Left
I left the Michigan-Michigan State game with more respect for both teams than I had going in. What about you? Which team projects to give Ohio State the toughest game considering all factors including game location? Give us your confidence level (scale 1 – 10) that the Buckeyes win for each of those two games. I’m curious if you have more confidence in OSU winning one more than the other.
Ramzy: Sparty just brings a different juice level to Michigan games. Ohio State historically loses to Michigan State when it has everything at stake and puckers like a dog during a thunderstorm. I don’t think that happens this year, and also – Ryan Day is a big grudge carrier and I could see him taking out his COVID anger on the team he didn’t get to face last season. I expect him to do that in the regular season finale as well. SP+ confidence is currently at 83% for Sparty and 65% for Michigan. I’ll split that and make mine 7/10.
Kevin: I'm not afraid of either of those teams, to be honest. If Ohio State's going to lose another game this seaosn, it's going to be against Purdue – and I mean that unironically.
If I had to pick, I guess I'm slightly more concerned about Sparty. They've at least shown consistency both on the ground and through the air offensively with a really stout defense. Michigan is still extremely one-dimensional and I think has the lesser defense of the two. I also respect Mel Tucker as a coach infinitely more than Jim Harbaugh.
Matt: We knew Kenneth Walker III was good going into last week's game against Michigan. As the game unfolded, it was apparent that Walker isn't good, he's special. I was also impressed with Payton Thorne's arm. His passes were on point and had the look of a Sunday ball.
Michigan State's defense was torched for 406 passing yards against a Wolverine offense not known for its aerial dynamics. If the Spartans struggled against Harbaugh's passing attack it will be in a world of hurt against Ryan Day, C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes. MSU will be up for the game on November 20th, but my confidence level for Ohio State winning is at eight.
I'm a child of the mid-80s thru the early '90s. Due to this traumatic upbringing, my confidence level for wins against Michigan always hovers just above zero. Is Ohio State the better team? Yes. Have the Buckeyes dominated this series for the better part of 20 years? Yes. Will I ever get over Post Traumatic Cooper Disorder? No.
Ohio State is about a 16-point favorite heading into the matchup with the Cornhuskers in Lincoln. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Matt: In the brief history of this series, Nebraska has rarely put up much of a fight. Ohio State continues the thrashings and wins 49-17. CJ Stroud is the safe bet for MVP. However, I'll roll with my man, the phenomenal freshman, TreVeyon Henderson.
Following the Penn State game, the offensive line has been called out. The big uglies will be inspired and will provide Henderson with huge highway lanes to roll up big numbers on a sunny Saturday afternoon in Memorial Stadium.
Ramzy: Nebraska hasn’t scored in the 30s once this year, which is weird. Ohio State uses explosive plays and Cornhusker miscues to escape, 38-24. Fresh Steele Chambers in the 2nd half helps put a cap on any upset magic. MVP is JSN, who continues to get the guy who draws the short straw trying to cover him.
Kevin: I talked up Nebraska a lot here, and I genuinely think the Huskers are a good team, but that doesn't mean Ohio State isn't going to blow them out. I'm predicting a cool 49-7 win for the Buckeyes with TreVeyon Henderson as my game MVP.
