Two tenets to a Bill O'Brien system are fundamental in understanding his offensive philosophy.
First, New England will thankfully get away from attacking the deep part of the field out of their shotgun formations as they did last year and return to winning in the middle of the field. For years, the Pats offense has dominated between the numbers. Under Patricia, they wanted to unlock more vertical elements in the passing game, but the results were inconsistent.
O'Brien unlocks his timing-based passing system by playing the matchups and attacking space he knows will present itself based on the defenses coverage, bringing us to the second tenet: tempo.
O'Brien loves to put the quarterback in empty formations where the quarterback is alone in the backfield. The beauty of HOSS Juke, which is hitch-seam on the outside and a juke route by number three, is that it gives the quarterback answers against any coverage.
Another O'Brienism is how he coaches progression reads for quarterbacks. O'Brien will always design plays for the quarterback to start on the vertical read and then work their eyes back to the horizontal routes.
The Patriots are 12th in the NFL in RPO attempts this year, per SIS. And while O'Brien's scheme won't be confused for Mike McDaniel's in Miami, the Patriots rank 10th when it comes to pass plays that incorporate jet motion. They are ninth in terms of their number of passing snaps that use any type of pre-snap motion.
And though this could be indicative of a passing game trying to mask issues with its protection by throwing the ball quickly, the Patriots are also one of the most spread-heavy teams in football. They're ninth in the rate at which they use empty formations, according to Sumer Sports. Feels like a modern approach.
His offense is still near the bottom of the league in terms of play-action usage -- Jones ranks 29th out of 37 quarterbacks in play-action rate this season (18.5), per Pro Football Focus -- but that can be impacted significantly by the scores of games. (For instance, running a high rate of play-action passes when trailing as the Patriots often have isn't a reasonable expectation.)
The Patriots' pass rate over expected also ranks 21st, per Sumer Sports, indicating that they may not be as pass-happy as some of the most efficient offenses in the game. (Cincinnati, Kansas City, Buffalo, Philly and Miami all rank inside the top 10 in that particular metric.)
But it's fair to wonder if those numbers would shift if the personnel in New England was different. During O'Brien's last full season in Houston, Watson ranked 12th in the NFL in pass attempts in just 15 games. Watson's play-action rate that season (24.5) wasn't among the league leaders (21st), but it was six percentage points higher than Jones' in 2023.
https://www.readoptional.com/p/which-bill-obrien-did-bill-belichick
O’Brien is charged with three things: Building a cohesive scheme that maximizes his young quarterback; elevating all the little things – the day-to-day coaching – that fell short and undercut the offense a year ago; re-establishing trust with a group still dealing with the hangover of 2022. O’Brien is known for the first two – not so much the latter.
O’Brien’s shock-and-awe style of coaching will not be for everyone. It should mesh with Jones. He brings instant credibility, and has the teaching chops to dive into any aspect of his offensive philosophy with precision. Belichick did not move from a 100mph man to a zen-like philosophizer. He went from one asshole to another, only this one has the clout to earn buy-in from his players.
When O’Brien strolled into his office in Tuscaloosa in 2021, he was greeted by something odd: A playbook. Nowadays, Saban hands the Alabama playbook to his new offensive assistant. They’re allowed some input, sure. And they’re given autonomy over play-calling, though with Saban always listening in and ready and willing to change things when he so desires. Roughly 70% of the Alabama playbook is static — or, rather, it moves at Saban’s pace. New coordinators are allowed to install 30 or so percent of their own ideas or concept, and they’re given free rein to push the offense in whatever direction they so desire from the principles outlined within the ‘book. Want to be a 12-personnel-dense side? Call our 12 personnel stuff. Want to lead with empty sets? Take your pick from our fine selection of vintages, Mr. O’Brien.
“Attack Daylight” became the mantra that filtered through every aspect of the offense. “Run to open space” isn’t the most profound of theories, but there is value in embracing the obvious. In college and then the NFL, it has proven revolutionary.
From the final days of the ground-and-pound era, where it felt like Saban could fall into the trap of being a dinosaur swimming against the spread-option revolution, Alabama moved to the vanguard of modern pro offense, using all the best practice spread-option work only with the finest players the country has to offer.
It remains the foundation of the ‘Bama book, and was at odds with the every-yard-is-impossible-to-muster pro mindset that O’Brien has had to deal with at every spot save for a stint as Penn State head coach. Rather than teaching (at least right away), he had some learning to do.
O’Brien has lived in the spread world before. At Penn State, he embraced the spread-option game. In the pros, he constructed an option-based system, at times, to help elevate Deshaun Watson.
RPOs under O’Brien weren’t quite as effective as in the glory days of Kiffin and Sark, but that had little to do with the specifics of the X’s & O’s and more so to do with personnel on offense – quarterback aside. O’Brien showed he got it, and would champion the cause. Ditto for those deep-breaking options, which still form the foundation of Alabama’s passing game
There is no stronger evangelist for empty sets than O’Brien. The Empty Theory, as it’s dubbed, is about getting the offense into a form of matchup ball. Regardless of personnel or formation, the quarterback is able to survey the field pre-snap and identify a one-on-one matchup that he likes.
There are a whole host of benefits to jumping into empty:
The defense is typically static at the snap
It limits how much a defense can move and rotate on the back end
Defenses typically default to a coverage tendency, particularly if an offense motions or shifts to empty, something an advanced staff can scout – it’s usually straight man-coverage or some form of match-quarters coverage.
It reduces the kind of blitz and pressure paths a defense can run
An offense can swamp or overload two-deep coverages early in the rep
All five eligibles can get out in the pattern quickly
It allows the offense to stretch the field horizontally with clean spacing
The main downsides: there is no hiding place for the quarterback; unless you have a mobile quarterback, there are none of the benefits of play-action.
Empty sets are on the rise across all of football as coaches look to use mobile quarterbacks (most notably Jalen Hurts and the Eagles) to hammer teams with the QB-run from empty before taking advantage in the drop back game.
No coach preaches the gospel of empty sets and ‘match up’ football more effusively than Bill O’Brien.
A lot to digest in these articles but that's what the offseason is for! I'm interested to see, for example, if Day approaches coaching with Bill like Saban did. Here's THE playbook. Run our stuff. Sure, enhance and improve it. But run our stuff. It sounds like Will Howard is a great style of QB for Bill's empty set preferences.
