While I honestly think Urban is done coaching - at least for a few more years a la Mack Brown style - there are some benefits to Texas.
+ The Big 12 is so weak - he could dominate easily, and quickly, just like here in 2011/2012.
+ The talent on the team is pretty good right now - better than what he inherited here in 2011/12.
+ Recruiting TEXAS is so much easier - so talent rich, great HS football development. He wouldn't necessarily need to go out of state. He could take 20 players from Texas each year (including the top QB in the state) and then sprinkle a few national recruits.
+ He'd already have Chris Ash & Stan Drayton on staff. I get Ash hasn't done much yet, but Urban is a big believer in his defense and his ability to coach.
Now, I actually think Texas will keep getting better on D down the stretch. They can score points. Ash will right that ship eventually. Remember 2014 Virginia Tech and even later in the season, the D was scored on quite a bit, OSU - Sparty score was 49-37.
I think Texas will still win the Big 12 (Oklahoma is bad, OkSt I'll believe it when I see it). If Herman has 2 or fewer losses, his job is safe for another year.