Bill Connely runs a analytic system called SP+ over on ESPN. Its probably the best analytic freely available and always does really well against the spread. Following the closing of the transfer portal, NFL decisions, and pre Spring ball he has released the pre season rankings for 2023. Here are the most interesting rankings:
Championship Contenders:
- #1 Georgia-After repeating and being the clear #1 team in the country they are the projected favorite again. They return a pretty big chunk of dominant championship team on top of elite recruiting filling the depth. Offensively they lose an elite OC in Monken, QB Stetson Bennet, and their two OTs but return basically everything else. Defensively they have some turnover on the DL and at CB but return most of their starters.
- #2 Ohio State-Basically 100% of production returning at offensive skill and front 7 is going to carry OSU. OL, QB, and Safety is a huge question mark. The future of this team will be entirely determined by QB and secondary development. OSU is either going to be a juggernaut or lose to Michigan again.
- #3 Michigan- Another year of a massive battle in The Game. Michigan returns basically the entirety of its offense after some surprising decisions to return of the NFL draft. The defense also looks to be really good with most of the back 7 back. However DL and offensive skill could be issues on either side
- #4 Alabama-A stupid about of turnover for Saban. QB, RB, OL, DL, LB, and both OC and DC are needing replaced. Hard to project them to win it all but should of course be a good team.
- #5 Penn State-3 teams in the top 5 for the B1G East. Basically the entire team returns except for QB and the secondary. Allar is also probably going to be a big upgrade at QB. Just a really good all around team. Happy they are coming to Columbus this year.
Conferences
- Pac 12: USC(8) Oregon(10) Utah(13) Washington(16) UCLA(21)-Any one of these teams could win the conference but don't expect any of them to seriously challenge for the championship.
- Big 12: Texas(9) Oklahoma(14) TCU(19) Kansas State(22)-Similar to the Pac 12, should be interesting with the new teams added but nobody is going to seriously challenge the top teams.
- ACC: FSU(11) Clemson(12) Wild how bad the ACC has gotten. Also wild Clemson will be going into the year without being the favorite for the first time since? Clemson is finally out of first round caliber DL. FSU is going to be a hyped team all off season.
OSU's schedule
- @ Indiana(64) YSU(NR) WKU(82) @ND(15) BYE Maryland(41) @Purdue(49) PSU(5) @Wisconsin(25) @Rutgers(84) MSU(47) Minnesota(30) @Michigan(3)
- Observations- Notre Dame lower than what I expected and will be ranked higher in media. Pretty hard schedule all around, 2 top 5 teams, 2 more top 25 road games, 4 top 50 teams, 4 easy games.
- Layout-Dont like having such an early bye, 8 B1G games in a row is brutal. @ Purdue, PSU then @Wisconsin gonna be tough. @Rutgers, MSU, and Minnesota leading up to Michigan is an easy slate.
SP+ Breakdown
- Preseason breakdown consists of a few things. Returning production, past performances(how good has a team been the past 5 years,) and recruiting rankings.
- Returning production is interesting because certain positions are more important than others. SP+ has shown that receivers and DBs are the most important positions to have back. QB is big but not all important. DL is close to meaningless due most likely to the amount of rotating. OL is also pretty over ratted.
- Where SP+ has challenges-Coaching changes basically make SP+ worthless for preseason rankings. Previous performances is a huge metric but without the same coaches it should be worth close to 0. Injuries are something it cant account for too.
- Transfers-This has been something he had to experiment with but he slotted transfers into returning production. So say you lose 75%(500 yards) of your rushing yards but bring in a back who ran for 400 yards then it will only see that a team lost 100 yards.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35651872/2023-c...
