Day always emphasizes ‘starting strong.’ I was curious if starting strong had any bearing on the final outcome of all competitive CFP matches since 2014. To limit my analysis to competitive games, I have excluded all CFP matches that were decided by three or more scores (17 and above). 

Here is what I found:

• 2014 semifinal, Ohio State trails Alabama 6-14 after 1Q but wins 42-35
• 2015 championship, Alabama trails Clemson 7-14 after 1Q but wins 45-40
• 2016 championship, Clemson trails Alabama 0-7 after 1Q but wins 35-31
• 2017 semifinal, Georgia trails Oklahoma 7-14 after 1Q but wins 54-48 (2OT)
• 2017 championship, Alabama tied with Georgia 0-0 after 1Q but wins 26-23
• 2018 semifinal, Alabama leads Oklahoma 21-0 after 1Q and wins 45-34
• 2019 semifinal, Clemson trails Ohio State 0-10 after 1Q but wins 29-23
• 2021 championship, Georgia trails Alabama 0-3 after 1Q but wins 33-18

In all CFP games that were decided by 16 points or less, the team winning at the end of the first quarter lost the game with the lone exception of 2018 Alabama-Oklahoma. This is a curious finding as one would expect a positive correlation between the first-quarter outcome and the final outcome. At the minimum, this data suggests that the first-quarter success has been a poor indicator of how the rest of the game will go.

This prompts me to rethink OSU’s strategy against Michigan in 2022. Knowles deployed a high-risk defense that Michigan had never seen before. Michigan was discombobulated for a quarter-and-half and then they adjusted and used our aggressiveness against us. While I still think Knowles should have dialed it back, his aggressiveness might have worked better if he had brought it up later in the game. On the other side, Day had an excellent first drive, which was probably scripted, but later struggled to put plays together after Michigan adjusted.

I believe, if we show new wrinkles and formations earlier in the game, it may win us a drive or two but will not pay off over four quarters. I hope whatever wrinkles Day is preparing for Georgia (tempo, different formations, QB run, etc.) are used more gradually throughout the game. I am not advocating for a timid game plan. What I am advocating for is a game plan that goes beyond the initial shock and awe. In these big games, firing all the shots in the first quarter leaves too much time for the opposing coaches to adjust.