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Rutgers - Offensive Play-by-Play Analysis

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saltybuck61's picture
10/7/22 at 2:31p in the OSU Football Forum
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As I mentioned in the deffensive post, I got behind in my schedule this week so the write up will be abridged, though I will hit the main points.

Here is the play-by-play chart:

Offensive Play-by-Play Analysis vs. Rutgers
Time Yard Line Down Distance O Formation D Package Front High Type Box Play Player Yards Notes
First Quarter                          
10:59 R48 1 10 Gun Orbit Mtn 4-3 Over 2 RPO 7 RPO Power Williams 2 Egbuka (-3) and Ballard (+2) for notable special teams plays. If this is an RPO (which I think it is pre-snap) Stroud (-1) makes a bad read. Still, due to decent blocks across the board, Williams (-0.5) has a cutback lane, though it might develop a little late. Play-calling +1 though because I think this play would have worked with either Stroud/Williams' usual production.
10:28 R46 2 8 Gun Y Flex Tight 4-3 Over 3 Pass 6.5 Smash Stover 12 Stroud (+1) throws a good pass to Stover, who makes a routine catch before falling forward.
10:00 R34 1 10 Ace Pair 3x1 Jet Mtn 4-3  Under 3 Run 7 Outside Zone Williams 32 Kind of looks like a zone run, but Johnson seems to down block too quickly. Still, Wypler (+2) does his best  nice job reaching the 3T, holding on to the block just enough to throw him off balance. Jackson (+1.5) does a nice job getting past Johnson to get a good kickout block. Williams (+2) breaks a tackle at the line and jukes a safety to get down near the goal line.
9:48 R2 1 2 Gun Twin TE Pair Goal Line Goal Line 0 Pass 9 Rollout Comeback Fleming 0 Fleming (-1) gets caught in the route, and can't shake off the defender. It feels like this was not the original play design, but it is hard to say. Stroud throws it away.
9:25 R2 2 2 Goal Line Goal Line Goal Line 0 Run 11 HB Lead Williams 2 Rossi (+1) with a beautifully classic block as the fullback. Johnson (+1) does a nice job as well holding his block. Good execution. Touchdown.
7:34 O26 1 10 Gun HZ Tight 4-3 Over 3 RPO 7 RPO Screen Fleming -1 Stroud (+1) makes a good read and throws the ball to Fleming, who makes a routine catch. Stover (-1) and Rossi (-1) both lose their blocks, resulting in a loss. The run would have led to a good gain, but I think you can expect Stover/Rossi to make that block most of the time.
7:01 O25 2 11 Gun Trips 4-3 Over 3 Pass 7 Checkdown Williams 3 Think this is the right decision for Stroud. Williams makes the routine catch before going out of bounds.
6:33 O28 3 8 Gun Y Flex Trips 4-2-5 Show Blitz 4 Pass 5 Spot Variation Egbuka 27 Stroud (+1) throws a good pass to Egbuka (+1), who makes a routine catch before getting some space to run. Play-calling +1.
6:18 R45 1 10 Gun Y Flex 4-2-5 Over 3 Pass 5.5 Curl Harrison 8 Stroud (+1) makes a good throw and Harrison (+0.5) makes a routine catch. Play-callling +1 to have a quick pass against the blitz. Williams (+0.5) is ready for the blitz pickup. 
6:01 R37 2 2 Pistol 3x1 4-2-5 Boundary 2 Run 7 Outside Zone Williams 2 Wypler (+1) has a good block to give Williams some space.
5:42 R35 1 10 Ace Y Flex Jet Mtn 4-2-5 Over 2 Pass 7 PA Post Harrison 0 Stroud is pressured and the ball is uncatchable for Harrison because of this. Still, the offensive line gave him enouugh time even with a 7-man blitz. Just happened during a long-developing play. Protection +1. Play-calling -1. 
5:18 R35 2 10 Gun Y Flex 4-2-5 Under 2 Pass 6 Slants Egbuka 20 Stroud (+1) make a good throw to Egbuka (+1), who makes a routine catch before getting good YAC. These are some really long developing slants. Egbuka does get points for juking the defender out of his shoes, but Stroud is waiting forever for the slant to develop, which seems bad. 
4:44 R15 1 10 Ace Pair 3x1 Jet Mtn 4-3 Under 2 Run 7 Jet Sweep Harrison 14 Stover (+2) gets two impact blocks on the play. Rossi (+1.5) with a good block. Fleming does his job here too. Harrison (+1)  has a nice run and erases an angle late in the run to get the ball to the 1.
4:19 R1 1 1 Ace Pair 3x1 Goal Line Goal Line 0 Pass 10 PA Mesh Harrison 0 Stroud (+1) throws a good pass, but the mesh route runs right through the referee, which sets a pick on Fleming. Harrison (+2) makes the spectacular catch, but had already stepped out of the back of the endzone to avoid running right over the referee. Does not count. Protection +1 due to good blocks from Stover (+1) and Johnson (+1), but a missed late blitzer from Williams (-1).
4:10 R1 2 1 Goal Line Goal Line Goal Line 0 Run 11 Outside Zone Lead Williams 1 Wypler (+1) and Rossi (+1) hold up to single-blocks flawlessly. Touchdown
0:25 O49 1 10 Gun 3x1 4-2-5 Over 4 RPO 6 RPO Mid Zone Williams 10 Stroud makes the right read here with a light box.  Matt Jones (+2) and Dawand Jones (+1) create a nice hole for Williams. Defensive holding.
0:09 R31 1 10 Gun 3x1 4-3 Under 2 Penalty 7 False Start Jackson -5 Jackson (-1)
Second Quarter                          
15:00 R36 1 15 Pistol TEs Wide 4-2-5 Under 2 RPO 5 RPO Screen Harrison 0 Fine read, but Stroud (-1) throws an inaccurate pass, and the ball is uncatchable for Harrison. Honestly wouldn't have minded seeing a hand-off here. 
14:57 R36 2 15 Gun Y Flex XY Tight 4-2-5 Over 1 Pass 6.5 Switch Post Fleming 36 Stroud (+2) throws a perfect pass to Fleming (+1), who makes a routine catch before scoring. Play-calling +1. Touchdown. 
10:40 O9 1 10 Ace 3x1 4-3 Boundary 2 Run 7 Outside Zone Williams 13 Good blocks from Dawand Jones (+1), Rossi (+1), and Fleming (+1) give Williams an easy first down. Play-calling +1 as Rutgers is loading the boundary. Not ready for a run to the field. 
10:22 O22 1 10 Gun Twin TE Pair 4-2-5 Boundary 2 RPO 6.5 RPO Hitch Fleming 10 Stroud (+1) makes the right read and throws a good throw to Fleming (+1) who makes a routine catch before getting some extra yardage.
10:08 O32 1 10 Gun Twin TE 4-2-5 Over 2 Run 7 Quick Toss Williams 6 Jackson (+1) gets Williams a cut-back lane, where Stover (+0.5), Rossi (+0.5) and Johnson (+0.5) have solid blocks. 
9:32 O38 2 4 Pistol 3W 4-2-5 Over 2 Run 6 Power Williams 3 Stover (+1) is able to seal off the edge, and Matt Jones is leading the way. If Williams (-1) cuts it to the left of Matt Jones, he is one-on-one with a safety five yards downfield. Play-calling +1 for running at a light box.
8:54 O41 3 1 Ace 3x1 4-2-5 Field 2 Run 8 Inside Zone Williams 4 Williams (+1) does a nice job to re-gap and get the first down. Wypler (-0.5) and Matt Jones (-0.5) let a guy through the play-side which would have stopped the run were it not for Williams.
8:21 O45 1 10 Pistol 3W 3x1 4-2-5 Boundary 3 Pass 7 PA Improvisation Scott 0 Scott stepped out of bounds prior to catching the ball, so he won't be creditted with his first on the year. Stover (-0.5) could have held his block for another beat, but it wasn't horrible. Stroud throws a good throw to Scott, who makes the routine catch.
7:53 O45 2 10 Pistol FY Flex Stacks 4-2-5 Under 2 Pass 5 PA Dig Stover 0 Stroud makes a good throw and Stover can't make the difficult catch. Good coverage. Play-calling -1 for throwing against an incredibly light box. 
5:36 R39 1 10 Gun Unbalanced 4-3 Under 1 Run 7 Quick Toss Williams 14 Williams (+2) is so good at bouncing outside when it is there. Rossi (+1) has a great block on the edge to give Williams some space.
5:12 R25 1 10 Pistol 3W 3x1 4-2-5 Over 3 Pass 6 PA Divide Harrison 0 Stroud makes an okay throw, and Harrison can't make the spectacular catch. I considered putting this as inaccurate, but I think if Harrison was expecting it, he could have made the catch. 
4:49 R25 2 10 Pistol 3W 3x1 4-2-5 Over 3 RPO 6 RPO Screen Fleming 5 Stroud (+1) makes a good read here, as the nickel is running hard inside after reading run. Egbuka (+0.5) has a good block and Fleming makes a routine catch.
4:08 R20 3 5 Gun 11 Empty 4-2-5 Over 2 Pass 7 Slant Harrison 6 Stroud (-1) throws an okay throw to Harrison, and he  makes the routine catch. A good throw might have been a touchdown as there was plenty of grass. Harrison thinks that the throw is behind him for a reason, so he turns inside.
4:02 R14 1 10 I-Formation Strong 4-2-5 Over 2 Pass 8.5 PA FB Wheel Rossi 10 Is this the best throw to make? No. Scott and Harrison are more open throughout the route. Is it fun? Absolutely. Defensive pass interference.
3:58 R4 1 4 Pistol FY Flex Trips 4-3 Under 0 Run 8.5 Split Zone Williams 3 Well executed. Little to say.
3:06 R1 2 1 Pistol FY Flex Trips 4-3 Under 0 Run 9 Split Zone Williams -2 Rutgers defended this well. Not sure what else Ohio State is supposed to do, besides Williams perhaps bouncing it outside. Hard to get much push going horizontal.
2:46 R3 3 3 Gun 11 Empty 4-2-5 Over 0 Pass 7 Mesh Stroud 1 Defensive Holding. Still Stroud (-3) bails too early and could have hit tried to make a couple of throws that, though there was good coverage, looked open enough. Fleming looked like the primary target, and he was the one who was held, so I get it. Still, I think he could have made the throw. Extra minus points for not knowing where the line of scrimmage was. New life with the penalty though.
1:58 R1 1 1 Goal Line Goal Line Goal Line 0 Pass 11 Scramble Stroud -1 Don't hate the play-call, but Rutgers is prepared. Don't hate the decision to run either. Play-calling -1 as Rutgers is totally prepared for play-action.
1:45 R1 2 2 Ace Pair 3x1 Jet Mtn Goal Line Goal Line 0 Run 9   Williams 1 Like the fake end-around. Freezes the backside here, but I think this coule be used later. Blocking was fine. Williams gets a yard.
1:12 R1 3 1 Ace 13 Goal Line Goal Line 0 Run 10 QB Sneak Stroud 0 Big QB Sneak guy. Love the call. Play-calling +1. Stroud (-1) kind of just collapses immediately instead of getting some push himself. 
0:51 R1 4 1 Ace 13 Goal Line Goal Line 0 Run 10 Mid Zone Williams 1 Williams (+1) is quick enough to get past defenders left from Matt Jones (-2) falling over. Stover (+1) and Rossi (+1) hold up a while to give him some space.
Third Quarter                          
15:00 O35 1 10 Gun 4-2-5 Over 2 Pass 6.5 989 Stroud INT Stroud (-3) with a bad read. I know he said he could make this throw, but not at all. He definitely thought the deep safeties were going to go toward the streaks and neither of them did. Probably the worst pass I have seen him make. I have talked about how Stroud is more aggressive this year, and this is a good example of how it can go bad. The ball is uncatchable for Egbuka. Harrison (+1) for the huge hit.
10:12 O30 1 10 Pistol 3W 4-2-5 Over 1 Run 6.5 Duo Williams 70 Great blocks thoughout. Jackson (+2) with a great block. Stover (+2), Johnson (+2), and Wypler (+2) all have blocks 5+ yards downfield. Williams (+3) gets some room, jukes one defender, and is fast enough to not get caught.
5:26 O45 1 10 Gun Twin TE 4-2-5 Field 1 RPO 7.5 RPO Hitch Egbuka 5 Stroud (+0.5) makes a good read, and makes an okay throw to Egbuka (+1), who makes a difficult catch.
4:56 O50 2 5 Ace Pair 3x1 4-3 Under 2 Run 7 Duo Williams 7 Offensive line doesn't get a ton of push, but Stover (+1) and Rossi (+0.5) clear a small hole for Williams (+1.5) to re-gap through with a juke to finish it off.
4:09 R43 1 10 Gun 3x1 4-2-5 Over 3 Run 6 GY Counter Williams 6 Well-executed run. Matt Jones (+0.5), Stover (+0.5), Jackson (+0.5) and Johnson (+0.5). All have solid blocks. 
3:41 R37 2 4 Pistol 3W 4-2-5 Under 2 Run 6.5 Split Zone Williams 11 Solid blocks all around, but this is all Williams (+3), who turns maybe two yards into 11 with a ridiculous spin move. Stroud (+1) with a helpful block on the edge.
3:08 R26 1 10 Pistol Pair 4-2-5 Over 2 Pass 6.5 PA Ohio Egbuka 18 Egbuka (+2) breaks the defenders ankles. Stroud makes a good throw, and Egbuka makes a routine catch. 
2:05 R8 1 8 Gun 11 Empty 4-2-5 Over 1 Pass 6 Dig Harrison 4 Defensive holding was correctly called, so no grade here.
1:42 R4 1 4 Ace 4-4 Boundary 0 Pass 9 PA Corner Egbuka 0 Egbuka got held here too, but it might have been within the five yard window. Stroud throws an inaccurate pass to Egbuka, and the ball is uncatchable.
1:34 R4 2 4 Gun Y Flex Trips 4-2-5 Under 0 Pass 6 Rollout Spot Xavier Johnson 0 Stroud throws the ball away. I think Egbuka might be responsible for picking the defender for Johnson, but he was also an open option himself if Stroud saw him. Honestly a little confused about this one.
1:26 R4 3 4 Gun 11 Empty 4-2-5 Boundary 0 Pass 7 Slant Harrison 4 Harrison (+1) beats his man off the line and Stroud (+1) throws a good pass. Harrison makes the routine catch. Touchdown. 
0:18 R20 1 10 Gun Y Flex Trips 4-2-5 Under 1 Pass 6 Streak Harrison 10 Defensive pass interference. This was the right move by the corner, as this was a touchdown if he hadn't pulled Harrison down.
0:13 R10 1 10 Pistol FY Flex Trips Y Mtn 4-2-5 Under 0 Run 7.5 Split Zone Williams 2 Williams (-0.5) could have cut this back sooner, but it wasn't bad. Solid blocking.
Fourth Quarter                          
15:00 R8 2 8 Gun 5-2 Over 0 Pass 7.5 Fade Harrison 6 Pass Interference is correctly called, though I never like pass interference calls when the receiver runs into the corner.
14:55 R2 1 2 Gun Twin TE Pair 4-4 Over 0 Run 8.5 Tight Zone Williams 2 Matt Jones (+1) and Dawand Jones (+0.5) get solid blocks for Williams (+1), who pushes his way into the endzone for a touchdown.
End of charting                          
                           

The big takeaways for me are the offensive-line, Miyan Williams, and the passing game. I will discuss each of these more in detail, though the discussions about the offensive line and Miyan Williams should be obvious.

Here is the offensive chart:

Offensive Chart vs. Rutgers
Player + - T Percentage Notes
offensive line          
Donovan jackson 5 2 3 71.4 He consistently has these types of games. Really solid without insane numbers. Really good, though.
luke wypler 6 0.5 5.5 92.3 Really good game from him. He's been much improved from last year, competition notwithstanding. 
paris johnson jr. 6 0 6 100 He's been great this year, both in the run game and defending the pass. Even when he gives up some pressure it takes a while to get there.
dawand jones 3.5 0 3.5 100 Lot more consistent this year.
matthew jones 3.5 2.5 1 58.3 Didn't see him too much. Only had really one poor play. Solid play all day.
backs          
cj stroud 12.5 10 2.5 55.6 One of the worst games I have charted for him, though he has earned the benefit of the doubt.
miyan williams 15 3 12 83.3 Just spectacular. He's been the best runner on the team for the past couple of years, but his improvement in the passing game has made him an every down back.
treveyon henderson 0 0 0 0 DNP
dallan Hayden 0 0 0 0 Did not chart.
total 27.5 13 14.5 87.9 The Miyan Williams Game
receivers          
julian fleming 3 1 2 75.0 Had the touchdown early. Pretty quiet for most of the day, though he played the least of the three starters.
emeka egbuka 5.5 3 2.5 64.7 Negatives are only from the punt muff. Was pretty good as a receiver.
marvin harrison jr. 5.5 0 5.5 100 Good, but weird game. His stats would have looked a lot better without some of the PIs, as he was getting open.
cade stover 9 1.5 7.5 85.7 I keep thinking I am being too easy on him, but it doesn't matter how hard I try to grade him. He is outstanding.
mitch rossi 7.5 1 6.5 88.2 Ridiculous number for a tight end in only 25 snaps.
total 30.5 6.5 24 82.4 Not a ton easy from Rutgers - they were leaving light boxes and playing physical with the receivers. 
protection 3 0 3   As long as the passing plays keep happening quickly, these numbers will stay low.
play calling 6 3 3   Solid day, but it could have been better. I am guessing they were working on things.

Miyan Williams as a runner isn’t much different than he was last season. I mentioned throughout the year that Williams was probably a better runner than Henderson, but his pass protection and receiving ability were far behind Henderson’s, so he was not going to play in a majority-passing offense based on 3 WR sets. If he couldn’t adjust to the passing game, he was going to have a hard time getting on the field. At least, that’s what it seemed like to me.

The good news is that Williams did improve. He did miss a blitz pickup today, but it was the first one he had missed all year against a team who blitzed constantly. He has been much better in the passing game, and his playing time has gone up as a result. Even when Henderson is healthy, Williams is too good of a runner to leave on the bench for long.

Last note on Williams: I think a lot of people constantly misdiagnose his skillset because of his appearance. He belongs in the same category of player like Cardale Jones – someone who doesn’t look like the player he is. Because of the big arm and massive stature, everyone projected Cardale Jones as a traditional pocket passer, which he never was. If you have watched the end of the 2014 season as much as I have, you know that Cardale was constantly being moved outside of the pocket so that he always had the option to run. When he wasn’t throwing from outside of the pocket, he was usually throwing out of play-action. If you can remember the 2015 season (as well as his time in the NFL and XFL), he never ran rollouts again. They treated him like a statuesque field general instead of an athletic improviser. Thank you again, Ed Warinner. Rant aside, Williams is in the same category. His juke and spin moves are the best I’ve seen since at least JK Dobbins, maybe since Braxton Miller. Yes, he looks like a bruiser, but he plays like a scat back who sometimes remembers that he has an extra 50 lbs. He is incredibly quick and dynamic with the football. He isn’t fast, and he is big, but people constantly underestimate his skillset and undersell just how talented of a runner Miyan Williams is.

The offensive line continues to improve, though Rutgers wasn’t exactly a huge challenge. It is still rare to see all offensive linemen have positively graded days, even against Rutgers. The greater diversity in running plays called in the game have helped the offensive linemen a lot, as now they are no longer telegraphing their desire to run zone repeatedly. Even though they don’t run it much, the additional counter and power runs along with the quick toss from the shotgun have improved the run game a lot, and it shows in a game like this.

The passing game was not its usual self, for a multitude of reasons:

CJ Stroud Passing Chart vs Rutgers
CJ Stroud Perfect Good Scramble   Okay Batted Throw Away Inaccurate Bad Read RPOs Zone Reads Passing Percentage General Percentage
Rutgers 1 10 1 1 4 0 1 2 1 5/6 0 75 55.6

 

Receiver Chart vs. Rutgers
Player Uncatchable Spectacular Difficult Routine
Julian Fleming       4/4
emeka egbuka 1 0/1 1/1 2/2
marvin harrison 2 0/1   3/3
cade stover     0/1 1/1
Miyan Williams       1/1

One of the things worth mentioning is that Stroud was not his usual self. His general score (which is the scoring system I use for all players) was the worst I have ever charted him at. His passing score was kind of okay. If he was passing downfield okay, why did he score so poorly?

First, he didn’t have a ton of positive points due to the low volume and relatively low success rate passing the ball. That mixed with a couple of big mistakes – mainly the interception and the scrambling out of bounds ten yards behind the line of scrimmage in the red zone – resulted in a mediocre scoring day. His actual passing wasn’t that bad, however. A couple of bad decisions turn a decent day into a relatively poor one.

Rutgers also had quite a few light boxes. They employed a six-man box or less about as often as Notre Dame did, but not as much as Wisconsin had.

Box Size in Notable Games
  Notre Dame Wisconsin Rutgers
5-Man Box 3 6 4
6-Man Box 27 27 17
7-Man Box 23 17 19
8+ Man Box 9 7 14

Rutgers 7 and 8+ man box numbers are probably inflated a bit as well, due to all the snaps close to the goal line for Ohio State. Even without that, Rutgers was content to do everything in their power to stop the pass. Blitzes, of course, as Kyle Jones pointed out in his piece this week. However, the defensive backs were guarding the wide receivers very physically. I thought most of the flags were legitimate on rewatch. On my first watch, I didn’t think so.

The play-calling was also trying to force something that wasn’t there. Going back to last year, I’ve noted that Day does this in these types of games sometimes, if only to work on things. I am about 99% positive he was trying to pad CJ’s stats so that he had a better shot at the Heisman. I know both of them want it, and that was the perfect game for some numbers. Having said that, I don’t anticipate the play-calling to be goofy in any type of meaningful game moving forward. We saw how Day calls games when he expects resistance when they played Wisconsin. It isn’t worth worrying about.

After all that, am I worried about Stroud? Am I worried about the passing game? Not at all. If a team wants to let Ohio State run the ball for 10 YPC, be my guest. I would like to see Ohio State’s receivers fight through contact a bit more, as the Rutgers defensive backs were holding on for dear life. They won’t always get those calls, and they need to be able to adjust when that is the case.

What should we be worried about?

Previous opponents’ decreasing quality. As the season goes on, some wins that looked good in the rearview mirror continue to look worse and worse. I guess the concern at this point is that we won’t know how good this team really is until they play a real team, which is…Iowa? I think Iowa will be the best team that Ohio State will have played up to that point, followed by Penn State, then Michigan. Regardless, the Ohio State offense looked dominant against Wisconsin, but Illinois did the exact same thing while only allowing 2 total rushing yards. More games will give more information.

What should we not be worried about?

The passing attack. So much of the passing attack for this game was just trying to pass for the sake of passing. It was not needed against Rutgers. Still, games are the best opportunity to get some experience. Furthermore, it would be nice to get Stroud the Heisman, not just for Stroud himself, but for Ryan Day’s legacy as a quarterback developer. I think they both want to get him some accolades. That is also why when the offense needed a play in the red zone, they picked a run with Miyan Williams. They knew they could score almost whenever. They just would rather have scored in a way that they wanted.

Don’t be surprised if this continues against Michigan State, though with that pass defense, I don’t think it is going to matter in that one.

What should we be excited about?

Miyan Williams is the obvious answer but also the correct one. With the coaches playing him more often, I fully expect to see him in high leverage situations moving forward. This will give a bit of a boost for rushing efficiency, which is huge for a team that last year lived and died by the explosive play. Now, they will likely be able to win either way. The Notre Dame game was a great example. The Iowa and Penn State games will be additional tests. While the point about Ohio State’s previous competition still stands, if there is one thing that those teams do well it is to defend the run. If Ohio State scores 40+ on those teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if they never score under 40 again this year. Teams that can drive down the field and get explosive plays are nearly impossible to stop.

 

Programming Note: An unforeseen family emergency has come up in my life which may mean that the Michigan State game recap could come out later, potentially even after the BYE week. I will try to keep updates going on the @salty_buck account on Twitter, though I am notoriously awful with posting on social media. 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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