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Arkansas State - Offensive Play by Play Analysis

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saltybuck61's picture
September 15, 2022 at 1:25pm
32 Comments

“Underwhelming” was used to describe the offense after the Notre Dame game, though there were reasons for it. JSN got hurt after only a single series, and the Notre Dame defense is legitimately good. There is no shame in not scoring 40 against them given those conditions. The real cherry on top was the success of the running game in the fourth quarter, which essentially iced the game. Once they established the run at the end of the game, Notre Dame didn’t have a chance.

For Arkansas State, though, they were expected to do more. Arkansas State isn’t as good as Notre Dame (yes, even after the loss to Marshall), and it would be a good opportunity to show off the new receivers. Combined with the rejuvenated run game, this offense was expected to get back to being the best offense in the country by a wide margin.

After the game, the concerns from last week were left unextinguished. The offense looked good, not unstoppable. It looked explosive but not efficient. The word I heard repeatedly was “clunky.” While I don’t think these claims are totally unwarranted, I don’t think they were as prominent on second watch. Here is the play-by-play chart.

Offensive Play-by-Play vs. Arkansas State
Time Yard Line Down Distance O Formation D Package Front High Type Box Play Player Yards Notes
First Quarter                          
13:34 O4 1 10 Gun Twin TE Pair Field 4-3 Over 0 Run 9 Inside Zone Henderson 3 Rossi (+2) clears the whole backside, allowing for Henderson to cut it back, but there isn't that much room due to the stacked box. Play-calling -1 for running inside with a numbers disadvantage.
13:07 O7 2 7 Gun Twin TE Pair Boundary Wing F 4-3 Over 0 Run 9 Outside Zone Lead Henderson 41 Rossi (+2) again  has a great block, as he blocks one player into another, causing a collision and freeing Henderson.Egbuka (+1) seals a defensive back to the outside to give Henderso (+2) a big lane, where he uses his speed to gain an extra 30 yards. Box is still stacked, but running to the outside helps a bit on the backside.
12:32 O48 1 10 Gun HZ Tight 4-3 Over 1 Run 9 Quick Pitch Williams 7 Backside, but Jackson (+0.5) gets a nice reach block. Stover (+0.5) creates a lane for Williams. Wypler (+0.5) with another good block as well.
12:11 A46 2 4 Pistol 3W 4-3 Under 2 Pass 7 PA Rollout Flood Egbuka 0 Play-Callling +1 as ASU is not lined up. Stroud (-2) makes a bad read and nearly throws an interception. The ball is uncatchable for Egbuka. Harrison was open, as was a couple yards for a scramble.
12:04 A46 3 4 Gun Y Flex Trips Bunch 4-3 Under 2 Pass 7 Mesh Variation Xavier Johnson 5 Offensive line gives Stroud all day. Protection +2. Play-calling -1, as ASU runs a zone against Mesh. Still, they motioned into it, so Stroud should have known the drags weren't going to be open. Maybe he was looking for Ballard initially? Harrison probably needs to sit in the zone, as he could have gotten fhe first. Definitely someone didn't do their job.  It looks like he isn't trying to run a true curl route though; just trying to clear out the middle. Weird play. Anyway, Stroud (+1) scrambles around and hits Xavier Johnson (+0.5) with a good pass for a routine pass.
11:37 A42 1 10 Gun 11 Empty 4-2-5 Over 2 Pass 6.5 Ohio Xavier Johnson 5 Stroud (+0.5) throws a good pass to Xavier Johnson, who makes the routine catch.
11:26 A38 2 6 Gun Wing TE 4-3 Over 2 RPO 7 RPO Power O Henderson -4 Jim Tressel's favorite play. I do not believe that this is supposed to be a read option, as Stroud is instead reading the corner. I think this is the right call, but Parris Johnso (-1.5) and Donovan Jackso (-1.5) both misidentify who they are supposed to block, leading to a TFL. Play-calling +1, as Henderson would have been 1 on 1 with the safety in the open field.
10:24 A42 3 10 Gun 4-3 Show Blitz 2 Pass 6.5 Dig Harrison 42 Stroud (+2) does a nice job of getting to at least his third read on this play and throwing a good pass to Harrison (+2), who makes a routine catch before showing off his rumored speed. He is much faster than I expected. Protection +1 for the time. 
5:56 O25 1 10 Gun Twin TE Pair Field 4-3 Over 2 Run 7 Quick Pitch Henderson 7 Parris Johnson (+1), Stover (+1), and Scott (+2) with some nice blocks. Gee Scott got a pancake of two defenders. Henderson rides it the whole way for a solid gain.
5:38 O32 2 3 Gun 12 Trips Bunch Left 4-3 Over 0 Pass 9 RPO Streak Harrison 45 Stroud (+2) makes the correct read to throw a perfect pass to Harrison (+2), who makes a difficult catch. Liking the RPO Streaks this year. Fun concept I didn't see last year.
5:06 A23 1 10 Gun Twin TE Pair Boundary Jet 4-3 Over 2 Pass 8 Jet Sweep Egbuka 15 ASU playing safeties 8 yards from  LOS all day. Stover (+1) gets a good lead block and Egbuka (+1) is fast enough to get to the edge with ease. 
4:27 A8 1 8 Gun Twin TE Pair Field 4-3 Over 0 Run 9.5 Inside Zone Henderson 8 Wypler (+0.5), Matt Jones (+0.5), Jackson (+0.5) Paris Johnson (+0.5) all have solid blocks and Henderson (+2) makes a couple niice cuts for the score. Play-calling +0.5 because ASU is cofused by the motion.
2:47 O23 1 10 Gun HZ Tight 4-3 Over 2 Run 8 Quick Pitch Williams 5 Johnson (+1)  and Stover (+0.5) have good blocks, while Williams (+1.5) breaks about four tackles. Play-calling  -1 for running against a stacked box, but I am starting to develop a theory about the play-calling for this game. This is a "work on stuff" game.
2:20 O28 2 5 Gun 11 Empty 4-3 Over 0 Pass 7 Smash Harrison 8 Stroud (+1) throws a good pass to Harrison, who makes a routine catch. Play-calling +1 for stretching the field horizontally.
1:47 O36 1 10 Gun 4-3 Over 2 Pass 7 PA Switch Stover 35 Stroud (+1) throws a good pass to Stover (+2), who makes a difficult catch  before getting another 17 after the catch. Doesn't look like the same guy as last year.
1:03 A29 1 10 Gun Y Flex 4-3 Under 2 Pass 7 PA Post Harrison 15 Harrison gets interferred with. Probably the right move for the defender honestly. 
0:58 A14 1 10 Gun Twin TE Pair Field 4-4 Under 2 Run 8 Quick Pitch Williams 6 Rossi (+2) pushes his man 8 yards downfield before knocking him over. Johnson  (+1) with another nice block. Egbuka (-1) can't really hold his block. Willliams (-2) needed to cut this up sooner. Weak late hit gives them another first.
0:51 A8 1 8 Gun Trips Bunch 4-3 Under 0 Pass 8 Corner Harrison -5 Johnson (-2) is beat immediately off the snap by a nasty spin move. Protection -2. Stroud (+2) throws a good throw off his back foot, and Harrison can't come down with the spectacular catch. Stroud makes this very close. Illegal formation. Assuming that Stover (-1) needs to be on the line here.
0:30 A13 1 13 Gun Twin TE Pair Field 4-4 Over 0 Run 10 Inside Zone Williams 7 Dawand Jones (+1) with a nice block and Williams (+1) sees the cutback lane to get a good chunk of yardage.
0:08 A6 2 6 Gun Twin TE Pair Boundary 4-3 Over 0 RPO 9 RPO Fade Egbuka 0 Stroud makes a good read here. Instead of running into a stacked box, throw it to a five star. This looks like a good throw but Egbuka can't get up for whatever reason. Maybe being held. Kind of looked funny.
0:02 A6 3 6 Gun Y Flex 4-3 Under 0 Pass 9 Smash Harrison 0 Stroud  (+1) throws a good pass, and Harrison catches a routine pass for a touchdown. At least it probably should have been. Oh well. I am usually fine with them not overturning things if it is that close. Alas. Field Goal.
Second Quarter                          
13:33 O25 1 10 Gun Trips 3-3-5 Tite 3 Run 6 Stretch Henderson 2 Johnson (-2) gets beat immediately, and Rossi has to pick up his man. Henderson (+1) does well to get positive yardage.
13:06 O27 2 8 Gun Wing F 3-3-5 Base 3 Run 6 Stretch Henderson -4 The line has a hard time identifying blocks in a 3-3-5. This will likely be a point of emphasis in practice. Dawand Jones (-2) does not expect a heavy end, which is typical with three man fronts, leading to a whiff. Rossi has to block the end. Rossi's likely original block makes a great tackle.
12:29 O23 3 12 Gun Y Flex Trips 3-3-5 Wide 2 Pass 6 Deep Curl Egbuka 0 Stroud (-2) throws an inaccurate pass, and the ball is uncatchable. He was open. I kind of think Stroud meant to throw it there, but it is hard without the All-22.
5:22 O25 1 10 Ace Twin TE Mtn WR In 4-3 Over 3 Run 8 Off-Tackle Williams 25 Rossi (+1) with a nice block on the outside. Williams (+2) cuts it back inside, breaks two tackles, and then shows some decent speed to get out in space.
4:55 O50 1 10 Gun 3-3-5 Base 3 Pass 5.5 Curl Egbuka 8 Stroud (+1) delivers a good ball to Egbuka (+0.5), who makes a routine catch.
4:24 A42 2 2 Gun Wing TE 3-3-5 Field 3 Pass 6 Streak Harrison 42 Harrison (+2) is just way too fast for the corner. Stroud (+2) delivers a good ball to Harrison, who makes the routine catch. Play-calling +1 For recognizing the mismatch. Touchdown
0:51 A48 1 10 Gun Y Flex 3-2-6 Base 3 Pass 5 HB Slip Screen Williams 0 Do not like a slip screen when the opponent is dropping 8. Play-calling -1.
0:44 A49 2 9 Gun Y Flex Trips 3-2-6 Base 3 Pass 5 Curl Flat Egbuka 0 Stroud (-1) throws an okay pass to Egbuka, who can't make the difficult catch. Second one today he was expecting Egbuka to go the other way.
0:39 A49 3 9 Gun Y Flex 3-2-6 Base 2 Pass 6 Scramble Stroud 1 Stroud should probably step up, though with a linebacker as a spy I don't mind him rolling out. Just protect yourself.
Third Quarter                          
15:00 O25 1 10 Pistol Twin TE Pair Boundary 3-3-5 Base 3 Pass 7 PA Rollout Flood Egbuka 44 Stroud (+1.5) throws a good ball to Egbuka (+1.5), who makes a routine catch for a big gain after getting wide open. Play-calling +2 as almost every receiver was open after ASU bit on the run.
14:31 A31 1 10 Gun Twin TE Pair Boundary 3-3-5 Base 3 Run 7 Inside Zone Henderson 8 Dawand Jones (+1) and Matt Jones (+0.5) help clear the right side of the line wide open. Henderson (+0.5) falls forward for a couple extra.
14:20 A23 2 2 Pistol Twin TE Pair Boundary 3-3-5 Base 3 Run 7 Outside Zone Henderson 23 Wypler (+0.5) comes off of his initial block early, but it does enough to keep the hole open. Jackson (+1) does a nice job to secure the block. Scott (+1) with another good block on the outside. Stover (+1) and Dawand Jones (+1) both clear a gap for Henderson (+1) who erases the safety's angle on the way to a touchdown.
11:22 O41 1 10 Gun Y Flex 3-3-5 B1G 2 Pass 6.5 In Harrison 8 Stroud (+1) makes a good throw and Harrison (+0.5) makes a routine catch.
10:58 O49 2 2 Gun 4-2-5 Over 2 Pass 7 Drag-Streak Egbuka 51 Stroud (+2) throws a good pass to Egbuka (+2), who has the speed to get the touchdown after a routine grab. Always like this fake drag route, though Olave would cut upfield earlier. I am pretty sure Egbuka needs to do likewise. That's why Stroud throws it to the same shoulder as the defender - that is the way Egbuka is looking and the way the ball is meant to be thrown. Like I said, I am pretty sure Egbuka cuts upfield a little late. Still, it works, so no issues. Protection +1. Stroud also gets a point for navigating the pocket and not panicking.
8:52 O36 1 10 Pistol Twin TE Pair Boundary 4-3 Over 0 Run 9 Duo Williams -1 P. Johnson (+0.5) Stover (+0.5) and Rossi gives him a lane. I think Williams (-1) thinks he can bounce it outside. He does get the linebacker leaning, but the guy Rossi is blocking is able to shed Rossi and tackle Williams for TFL.
8:39 O35 2 11 Gun 11 Empty 4-3 Field 2 Pass 7 Screen Williams 0 Stroud (-1.5) throws an inaccurate pass to Williams, and the ball is uncatchable. Really the only real bad throw on the day.
8:24 O35 3 11 Gun Y Flex 3-3-5 Wide 2 Pass 6.5 Pivot Stroud 0 Jackson (-0.5) comes off of the linebacker, leaving him one on one with Williams (-1) who can't keep him from sacking Stroud. Not sure if Harrison (-0.5) is supposed to be doing a pivot here, as a drag/in route would have been wide open. Punt.
2:49 O25 1 10 B1G B1G B1G B1G Run B1G Jet Sweep Egbuka 27 Play-Calling +1 as this was pretty open, and has been for most of the day. Harrison (+1) has a good block. Egbuka (+2) at first looked like he was going to outrun his blocking, but he is fast and quick enough to miss them anyway. 
2:22 A48 1 10 Pistol Twin TE Pair Boundary 4-3 Over 3 Run 7 Mid Zone Henderson 3 Henderson (-1) might have missed a first down by going through this hole. Jackson (+1) has a pretty nice block.
1:52 A45 2 7 Gun HZ Stack 4-2-5 Under 2 RPO 7 RPO Tight Zone Williams 2 P Johnson (+2) has a great block on the backside. I think he probably should have thrown this out to the WR, so I am going to say a bad read here.
1:08 A44 3 6 Gun 4-2-5 Under 2 Pass 6 Comeback Harrison 9 Stroud (+1) throws a good pass to Harrison (+0.5) who makes a routine catch.
0:46 A35 1 10 Gun 4-3 Over 2 Run 7.5 Speed Option Williams 5 Stroud (-1) pitches it too early, but Williams (+1.5) is fast enough to erase the angle. Stroud doesn't run these enough to have much experience. Play-calling +0.5 as they did have the end isolated.
0:26 A30 2 5 Gun 4-2-5 Under 2 Pass 6.5 PA Smash Xavier Johnson 0 Stroud throws an innaccurate pass to Xavier Johnson, and the ball is uncatchable. Not running Smash a bunch at all this year, which is unusual.
0:12 A30 3 5 Gun 4-2-5 Under 2 Pass 6.5 Streak Harrison 30 Stroud (+2.5) throws a perfect pass to Harrison (+2), who makes the spectacular grab. Thing of beauty. Touchdown. Protection +0.5
Fourth Quarter                          
12:10 O20 1 10 Gun Y Flex 4-2-5 Over 0 Pass 6 Fumbled Snap Stroud -4 Wypler (-2) snaps low.
11:57 O16 2 14 Gun 11 Empty 4-2-5 Boundary 2 Pass 6 Hitch Stover 5 Stroud throws a good pass to Stover, who makes a routine catch.
11:00 O21 3 9 Gun Y Flex 4-2-5 Under 2 Pass 7 Slant Harrison 0 Stroud (-1) throws an okay pass to Harrison, who can't make the difficult catch. Play-calling -1 as nothing looked like it was long enough to get to the sticks. Punt.
End of Charting                          

One of the most common criticisms from the fanbase has been the play-calling, which, as will be apparent after I post the offensive chart, I don’t think is nearly that bad. There was one or two calls that I thought were weird. The Mesh Variation at 12:04 was one that looked kind of like Mesh that they always run, but Ballard wasn’t really running a curl, he was kind of just clearing space, and the running back didn’t run a wheel. It was an unusual play design, to the point where I think someone (or a bunch of players) messed up. That was the only weird play design. There are also a couple of base plays that they would run a ton last year that they haven’t run nearly as much this year – Split Flow and Smash. Split Flow is essentially faking split zone, a run play with the tight end coming across the formation to block the backside end. From under center, this goes by some other names. Jon Gruden’s favorite play, Spider 2 Y Banana, is essentially the same play. They would run this play about 3-5 times a game, especially early last year. Now, I hardly ever see it. Smash is a concept where the slot runs a corner route, and the outside receiver runs a hitch. They ran a variation on that where they switched responsibilities in the Notre Dame game, where Harrison caught a corner route despite starting on the outside. Still, Ohio State ran this a ton last year with JSN in the slot. Perhaps another play-calling casualty of his absence.  

Still, a lot of the plays made sense, especially since one of the play-calling criticisms was: why were a lot of runs outside instead of inside? Why weren’t they dominating at the line of scrimmage? This was a function of Arkansas State’s philosophy on defense, which wasn’t all that different than Michigan State’s when Dantonio was their head coach. They ran a base 4-3, with press coverage and the safeties only 8 yards away (at most) from the line of scrimmage. They were regularly putting 7-9 players in the box. The outside runs were meant to equalize numbers by erasing the backside of the defense. They ran a couple up the middle, but the defense is put together like this specifically to stop the interior run game. For those hoping to see the offensive line establish their dominance, this was not the game for you. It is unreasonable to expect 6 players to block 9 defenders; I don’t care how good the blockers are. This would have been a good game for Evan Pryor if he was healthy. Stacking the box was, of course, not really a problem for Ohio State, as their passing game was left wide open. Ohio State had 17 points in three possessions, with even that third possession being a review away from a touchdown.

After that, Arkansas State switched to a 3-3-5, which seems like a great formation to run against, especially since they were not showing a Tite front either. A Tite front is exactly what it sounds like, in that the defensive ends are playing straight over the tackles instead of over their outside shoulder. Still, at least for the first drive, Ohio State got off to a slow start. I think it is very possible they didn’t prepare for a three-man front, as the offensive line was unsure who to block for that first series. The second series they seemed to figure it out, as another touchdown followed. They had an opportunity for a two-minute drill at the end of the half, but were not particularly aggressive about it, which I have no problem with a game like this.

Then in the third quarter, Ohio State scored two touchdowns in five plays, followed by a three-and-out, and capped off with a 7-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. While it wasn’t prefect, it was quite good. The multiple three-and-outs on the day are certainly weird, but I am not taking too much from it. It is pretty rare for the offense to have three straight unsuccessful plays, so I can’t attribute it to much else besides randomness.

Still, since it is the second week in a row that this has happened, it is something to keep an eye on next week. I think if they have multiple three-and-outs vs Toledo, especially with JSN in the game, it will be something to officially worry about. Since JSN’s biggest role is as a security blanket for Stroud, though, I am not super surprised that they are not as efficient without him as they are with him. I am not worried yet. I may change my tune next week.

The individual efforts from the players were encouraging, especially from some of the guys I wanted to see improvement from:

Offensive Chart vs. Arkansas State
Player + - T Percentage Notes
offensive line          
Donovan jackson 7.5 0.5 7 93.8 Solid, though I didn't see a ton in the run game. Not a ton of snaps for the starters.
luke wypler 6 2 4 75.0 Pretty good besides the bad snap.
Paris Johnson jr. 10.5 2 8.5 84.0 Much better game for him.
Dawand jones 7.5 2 5.5 78.9 Decent game.
Matthew jones 5.5 0 5.5 100.0 Not a ton of running in between the tackles.
backs          
cj stroud 21.5 8.5 13 71.7 He had a decent day, but it wasn't his best. Some great throws, some not so great throws. Fine
miyan williams 6 2 4 75.0 A good effort, but he did try to bounce one or two outside he should have cut up. He's got good instincts and looks better in pass protection.
treveyon henderson 6.5 1 5.5 86.7 I still think he has made a jump from last year. I like what I've seen.
total 34 11.5 22.5 74.7 This group should play better down the stretch. Stroud can play better.
receivers          
jaxon smith-njigba 0 0 0 0 DNP
julian fleming 0 0 0 0 DNP
emeka egbuka 8 1 7 88.9 Better game on re-watch than I expected. Some of the throws from Stroud weren't as good as I remembered real-time.
marvin harrison jr. 10 0.5 9.5 95.2 May have introduced himself to the country during the Rose Bowl, but he looked like a first-round pick in this one.
cade stover 6.5 1 5.5 86.7 One more game like this and I will officially say he is an upgrade over Ruckert.
mitch rossi 7 0 7 100.0 Just bulldozed everyone in his path. Clear why he is the guy when they want to run.
jayden ballard 0 0 0 0.0 Did not Chart.
xavier johnson 0.5 0 0.5 100.0 Played quite a bit more than Ballard, so he's probably WR#5 after JSN and Fleming get back.
gee scott jr. 3 0 0 100.0 I did not expect him to play in front of Joe Royer, but he looked great blocking. If he's made that step, he is probably a viable tight end.
joe royer 0 0 0 0.0 Special Teams
total 35 2.5 32.5 93.3 Harrison is ready right now. Egbuka is probably ready too, though he and Stroud don't always look on target.
metrics          
protection 4.5 2 2.5   Fine protection. Really only one bust, but Stroud doesn't need a ton of time.
play-calling 7 5 2   Weird day for play-calling. Some calls were so good that Arkansas State had no chance, and others were not optimal, but I think this might have been somewhat intentional.

The offensive linemen played a decent game, and I think most of the commentary of them falling short is misplaced. They all had about one miss each, but it was never from getting dominated at the point of attack; it was always from being mis-identifying blocks. This was a problem that plagued Arkansas State far worse on the other side of the ball, though I will discuss that later. The 3-3-5 gave them problems for a second, but that was about it. There wasn’t a ton to learn about them in this game, as it wasn’t really an opportunity to show off their run-blocking prowess. Their pass protection was solid. The one individual who is worth calling out is Paris Johnson Jr., who played much better than last week, though I think he played well against ND too. He stood out in this game.

I thought both running backs played well, but again, as is the general theme against Arkansas State, neither of them played perfectly. Every offensive player for Ohio State played totally adequately, no better and no worse. Whatever their usual was, they delivered. Williams tried to bounce too many outside, but still shows a ton of effort when he runs. He has also developed nicely as a pass blocker, which was my biggest concern of his last year. This makes it a lot easier to keep him on the field. Henderson missed a hole that might have resulted in a first down. Having said that, he looks significantly more patient as a runner and is hitting holes that he was missing last year. While he hasn’t had any 200-yard games or 80-yard runs yet, he looks much improved from last year based on the down-to-down running back things. I have loved what I have seen from both guys, though this wasn’t the game for them to really shine based on the Arkansas State defense.

The real story on offense has been the tight ends.

I’m ready to get hurt again. This is the year Ohio State uses the tight ends.

I am joking, obviously. Still, the tight end group was my single biggest concern going into the season, as I didn’t think Ruckert was particularly that effective last year anyway. If the guys in that room couldn’t overtake him, and the projected was a converted linebacker, this was going to be a problem spot on offense all season long.

Yet, through two games, Stover has been nearly perfect. He is a much better blocker than he was last year as well as being a better blocker than Ruckert was at any point. I even like what I have seen from him as a downfield receiver, though I haven’t seen the All-22, so it is impossible for me to tell you much about his route-running/speed. Based on how Ohio State uses the tight ends, though, I think he has been a revelation for this offense. I don’t want to get too far over my skis, so I am pumping the breaks. If he delivers against Toledo, however, I feel comfortable proclaiming him as an upgrade over Ruckert, perhaps a significant upgrade.

Rossi also had a couple of nice blocks. He won’t be used at all in the passing game, but he was an excellent blocker all last year. He fell off a bit against elite competition, so that is something to look out for the rest of the season.

Gee Scott Jr. getting time as the third tight end, and the second tight end at some points in the game was an interesting subplot, as it sounded like he was behind Royer in the spring due to Scott’s struggling with blocking. After this game, though, I can see why he got the first reps. He looked outstanding as a blocker, and we already know about his ability as a receiver. If he can maintain consistency as a blocker, he will be a viable tight end to be on the field all the time. While I don’t think he will have a huge role this year, that could change if JSN and Fleming won’t be healthy. Working two tight-end sets with a guy like Scott could be an interesting option if you just felt comfortable with Egbuka and Harrison. Again, it isn’t likely, but it is something to keep in the back of your mind as the season goes on.

The guy throwing them the ball was solid too:

CJ Stroud Passing Chart vs. Arkansas State
CJ Stroud Perfect Good Scramble Pressure OK Batted Throw Away Inaccurate Bad Read RPOs Zone Reads Pass % General % Notes
Arkansas state 2 15   2 2     3 1 3/3 0/1 81.0 71.7 Not his best, but not bad either. His arm talent is excellent. Biggest thing was the lack of big time, NFL throws, though those aren't always that common against a team like this.

Like most of these guys, Stroud played fine. There weren’t a ton of NFL throws today, but that was mostly because there wasn’t a ton of tight coverage. Some of those throws to Harrison probably would be categorized as perfect throws if the coverage was tighter. It is tough to say. He missed a couple of throws, but after averaging 15 YPA, they were all minor. Compared to Bryce Young, he is doing wonderfully. I imagine he will do even better when JSN returns.

The wide receivers probably had the best game of the group:

Receiver Chart vs. Arkansas State
Player Uncatchable Spectacular Difficult Routine Notes
jaxon smith-njigba         DNP
julian flemming         DNP
emeka egbuka 3   1/1 3/3 Good game, though much of his stuff was underneath. Only 4 of his 7 downfield targets were successful. Some of that is on Stroud, but they don't look totally on the same page.
marvin harrison jr.   1/2 1/2 6/6 Best game of his career. Lived up to the hype in this one.
Cade Stover     1/1 1/1 Nice wheel route in this game. I still think he is a blocker-first, but he is better downfield than I expected.
mitch rossi         Not a part of the passing game.
Jayden Ballard         Did not chart
xavier johnson 1     2/2 Couple of short passes. Seems like his playing time is for real, though he isn't going to be taking snaps away from JSN.
Gee scott jr.         Did not chart
total 4 1/2 3/4 12/12 Improved from Notre Dame

Harrison and Egbuka look the part through two games. Harrison picked up where he left off in the second half of the Notre Dame game. Between the Rose Bowl, Notre Dame, and Arkansas State, he seems to be a proven commodity along with JSN at this point. Those two guys are the real deal.

Egbuka is close; he didn’t have a huge impact in the Rose Bowl with the exception of the spectacular catch along the sideline. He’s stacked two good games in a row, and three is the sample size at which I feel comfortable in saying a guy is legitimately good. Still, based on how he has looked through two games, I think he might be on his way. I am curious to see how Fleming will fit into the conversation.

The only real issue that the Buckeyes are having in the passing game now is the lack of a truly elite third receiver. They have two right now, but without Fleming and JSN, there is a significant drop off. Xavier Johnson is a solid option for sure, but he isn’t a potential first-round pick. Having that extra piece makes the passing game so much more efficient. I mentioned this with the tight ends, but I imagine that if Ohio State doesn’t have three of JSN, Harrison, Egbuka, and Fleming healthy, they will switch to more 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight end, 2 wide receiver) formations more often. It will fundamentally change the identity of the offense without the health of the four of those guys, and I don’t think they can get to where they want to be as an offense without it.

What should we worry about?

Receiver health. I mentioned it above, but that is the difference between this offense being the best in the country or just merely a top five offense. While that doesn’t sound like a big difference, that could be the difference between a National Championship and a loss to Michigan. The defense may have to take another leap to make up that difference.

What should we not worry about?

The running game and the play-calling. This was not the game for running the football, and I don’t really expect a ton of success when the defense is regularly putting 7-9 men in the box. I would expect more big plays passing, and that is what we got. Notre Dame is a defense that Ohio State could run against, as they were only putting 6 men in the box regularly to deal with the passing game. I find that game much more indicative of this team’s ability to run the ball, as that is the strategy that teams like Michigan and Northwestern have used in the past to limit the passing game. This was the inverse strategy of the first game, so Ohio State beat it through the air instead of the ground. This is how play-calling is supposed to work. This reminds me a little of the 2019 FAU game, where the explosive passing plays seemed shockingly easy, but the offense wasn’t particularly efficient.

What should we be excited about?

Ohio State is using the tight ends. Not really, of course; that would be ridiculous. Two games through the season they are much better than last year, while every other part of the offense projects to be as good as last year (with the potential exception of receiver if JSN is not healthy).

Though it is early, as I see it –

2022 Stroud > 2021 Stroud;

2022 Running Backs > 2021 Running Backs;

2022 Offensive Line >= 2021 Offensive Line;

2022 Wide Receivers ~= 2021 Wide Receivers;

2022 Tight Ends >> 2021 Tight Ends.

This isn’t guaranteed, and we will only learn more as the season goes on, but this offense is still tracking toward being an elite unit. Last year at this time, there were early game struggles against both Minnesota and Oregon, with Oregon having an especially porous pass defense. This offense is still going to be excellent, and the emergence of the tight-ends seems to erase my #1 worry of the offense from the off-season.

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