After watching the Oregon game, I graded the defensive line as the only unit that seemed to be doing their job on defense. While the linebackers were consistently out of position, and the safeties were taking horrible angles, the defensive line played fairly well. They were the backbone of the defense: the one group that could be depended on to play at a high level.

Since the change in defensive coordinator, the defense has gone from a unit that couldn’t stop anything on the ground to a defense that was straight up excellent against the run. According to an opponent adjusted statistic (% of opponents per-game YPC allowed), Ohio State’s run defense was playing at the same level as Georgia up until the Purdue game, when I last calculated it. They were exceptional.

And all of it meant nothing.

The defense, built on the back of a good defensive line, collapsed like a sandcastle after the foundation was decimated by Michigan’s offensive line. There will be changes on the coaching staff next year. There will have to be. Ryan Day’s choices will be fundamental to how the program performs moving forward.

 One of the most glaring issues with the defense is that it got worse as the game wore on. In the first half, they were largely playing well against Michigan with the exception of the first drive. Sure, they got punched in the mouth, but they were forcing Michigan to march down the field, at least, until Denzel Burke let a deep ball go over his head. Still, Michigan didn’t look overly explosive. A good second half from the offense would lead them to victory.

In the second half, Ohio State allowed 13.3 YPP.

On the average play, Ohio State allowed more than a first down. This was especially shocking against an offense that largely just ran the ball down their throats. Michigan ran over, and over, and over again, and still managed to get a first down basically every time they ran the ball.

Making this worse, the guys that were the stars all year long were the ones that collapsed in the biggest game of the season. At least with the offense, the weakest part of the team (the offensive line) struggled. That was at least somewhat foreseeable. Seeing the strengths of the defense completely fall apart was…something else.

I always list the players who graded as champions. This requires at least 15 snaps and a grade above 80%. This means that there was not a single defensive player who graded out as a champion, which is the first time I have ever graded that. It was well deserved. This was nothing short of a disaster.

Easily the most disappointing group was the defensive line, who as I mentioned earlier had been so good all year. While they haven’t been good pass-rushing, they have been outstanding against the run, even against Oregon, when the run defense was atrocious. Even in those games, the defensive line was largely doing their jobs (even if the 1-tech in that game got pushed around). The biggest issue in that game was the linebackers and the safeties in run support.

The two guys who had been quite good all year, Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith, while not horrible, didn’t impact the game. These two guys had been good for a couple of big plays a game, even if it didn’t end up in a sack or a TFL, it resulted in disruption. In this game, they were completely muted. Smith (3Q 11:56) gave up a touchdown seemingly all by himself by diving inside while there were two pulling guards. The only explanation I can give is that the inside guys were getting beat up so much that Smith felt like he needed to cheat, and it led to a touchdown.

The inside guy that got beat the worst was Jerron Cage. He has been one of the most improved players on the defense, and a guy who had seemingly become the answer at 1-technique. He went from a reserve player to the nominal starter at the position. This was backed up by my grading, as he had some big games the last few weeks. Against Michigan, he had the single worst game I’ve graded from a defensive lineman.

Cage wasn’t the only former bright spot on the defense to burst into flames. Steele Chambers had a rocky day as well. At least Chambers had a lot of positives. Early in the game, Chambers made a couple of plays that kept Ohio State in the game, one of which features him running over an offensive lineman on a blitz to force a punt (2Q 15:00). He also regularly made tackles at the line of scrimmage. Still, he made a few costly errors that led to big plays. He was completely flat-footed on a pass that led to a red-zone opportunity (1Q 9:25). He was completely neutralized on a 55-yard stretch play (3Q 12:38) that to me felt like the turning point in the game. He hadn’t graded negatively all year. In this game, he put up more negatives than I have ever graded for a linebacker. As I said, he had enough positives where, at least through the 20 minutes of the game, he was playing fairly well. After that, he completely collapsed, and so too did Ohio State’s chances of winning. I still think he is the best linebacker on the team and the best pro prospect, but he couldn’t have picked a worse time to have his worst game.

The other two linebackers who got regular time, Cody Simon and Tommy Eichenberg, played okay. While I have wanted Eichenberg to replace Simon, they have been basically interchangeable the last few weeks. While Michigan seemed to target Chambers, they didn’t attack Simon or Eichenberg all that much.

The secondary, which had also experienced some up and downs on the season, were all in the negative except for Bryson Shaw, who actually graded out okay. His interception was the biggest reason for his solid grade, but it was the basically the one play in the first half that kept Ohio State in the game. He deserves a decent grade. Everyone else, absolutely not. To re-emphasize how weird this game was for Ohio State, he was without a doubt the best player on defense for the Buckeyes, and he played about his usual game.

Denzel Burke, after not having a bad game the entire season and playing tight coverage on David Bell all game, was completely lost against the Michigan receivers. All year, Ohio State could afford to sell out against the run because Burke never gave up anything deep. Against Michigan, he gave up plenty deep (2Q 4:25, 3Q 7:40, 4Q 12:49, 4Q 10:37). All the sudden, the bend-but-don’t-break defense that had worked well for the Buckeyes had broken, and Michigan couldn’t be stopped. For the third time, the guy that had been the brightest spot for his unit all year suddenly put up the biggest negative that I have charted for his position.

The general theme for the defense in this massacre: Ohio State’s best players played their worst games in the Michigan game. I can’t remember this every happening, in the Ohio State Michigan game since I started watching in the early 2000’s. If there is one takeaway from this game, that is it. This isn’t a position coach thing, and it may not even be a coordinator thing.  

What should we worry about for next year? I mentioned this in the offensive analysis, but the general preparedness of the team, especially compared to Michigan’s preparedness. The defense looked completely unprepared for a gap-blocked, power-based run game, which Michigan had run the whole year. I didn’t expect Ohio State to add exotic coverages/blitzes for this game only, especially with them switching up their defense mid-season. What Barnes did with what he was given was impressive enough. I did expect them to be ready for Michigan’s gameplan, which was exactly what everyone and their mother was saying it would be: get pressure on defense and play for ball-control on offense. Everyone knew what it would be, and Ohio State wasn’t ready for it.

Another worrying data point was the exposure of Ohio State’s strengths on defense. This goes hand-in-hand with the preparedness of the team but seeing all of those parts fail at the same time in the biggest game of the year isn’t something that happens by random chance. Well, I mean, it could, but I find it to be unlikely. I would think it’s a head coaching or defensive coordinator problem. If it is just a defensive-coordinator problem, that is fine. I don’t think changing the entire defense in the middle of the season is going to become a trend. Also, since the offense played mostly as expected, it could certainly just be a defensive coordinator issue. Still, a change is necessary to ensure it doesn’t happen.

What should we not worry about for next year? Day recognizing the need for staff changes. He’s been ruthless thus far when things don’t go according to plan. I understand the thought process behind keeping Coombs another year after COVID. Wade was injured, Riep was kicked off the team, and Cam Brown tore his Achilles during a shortened season with players constantly benched due to COVID restrictions. The run defense was decent at least, and the terrible pass defense could have been chalked up to those previously mentioned issues. Fine. That’s a once-in-a-lifetime situation and terrible roster luck. It’s even more understandable when everyone, including Alabama, had defensive issues in 2020.

As soon as he got a normal season in 2021, it took him all of two games to decide that Coombs wasn’t the guy, and that a change had to be made. That’s aggressive to a point that I haven’t seen with another coach, ever. He also dumped the entire defensive staff in his first year as a head coach, including a legendary coach in Greg Schiano. Based on personnel changes (like Chambers replacing a captain in Mitchell or Henderson jumping over the presumed starter (Williams) and a veteran (Teague)), and the coaching changes mentioned above, I don’t think he’s worried about hurting feelings. He will do what he feels is best for the team, even if he has to make tough decisions regarding these guys’ future.

I also don’t think we should be worried about the talented but inexperienced players on the defense that had rough days. Burke and Chambers got exposed by a playoff team. It happens. They are still extremely talented players who will almost certainly have better coaching next year. These two are going to keep getting better.

What should we be excited about for next year? The upcoming staff changes. They’re almost certainly coming on defense, and I, for one, am always excited to see what new coaches bring to the table. When they’ve come in the past, they’ve usually come in the right direction if a coach moved on for being incompetent. Trying to replace great coaches is difficult; trying to replace bad coaches is not nearly as hard. Day’s changes in 2019 were great, as that defense went from maybe the worst I have seen in the school’s history to the best in the country with largely the same players. That’s what good coaching can do for you.

As for exactly how it shakes out, I have no clue. Personally, I think they need another defensive coach, along with the guys they already have. I think changes have to be made, but Day will have to consider where he thinks the problems were last year.

The one guy I would like to see kept is Larry Johnson, as he’s had a spectacular track record, and the defensive line was the only thing holding the defense together this entire year. Yes, they need to play better against Michigan, but I am giving them a bit of a pass. They need to rush the passer better and show up against good offensive lines. However, out of all the problems on the defense, this is the group that needs the least change. I think a better defensive coordinator will help this group tremendously, as they were overcompensating for the linebackers. If he thinks that this is the time to retire, that’s fine. It’s better for him to be done with coaching if his heart isn’t in it. If if he wants to keep coaching, though, you let him. I think getting rid of LJ would be an overreaction.

As far as coaches who can, and maybe should be moved, the list starts with Al Washington for me. The linebacker unit went from a complete disaster in 2018 to very good in 2019. At this point, I was impressed with the job Washington had done. In 2020, they were the unit that held together a rough defense with paperclips and glue sticks. In 2021, the unit had zero depth, and was once again the worst unit on the team. Now, I knew Bill Davis was bad, but I assumed that Washington had something to do with the improvement of the linebackers. Now, I am not so sure. Bill Davis might have just been that bad. I thought Hilliiard, Werner, and Browning all improved under his watch, but it looks like none of their backups did. I am pretty ambivalent to him staying, and I think Day would know better than I do about this. The linebackers have been well-coached when the rest of the defense has been well-coached. He just feels fine to me, and he is probably in the same category as Greg Studrawa for me. He’s probably not bad enough to fire, but he’s not good enough to have elite units. If they are going to be making any staff changes, I think Washington would be the most natural choice to replace. The question in these types of situations is always: do you risk getting rid of average in order to reach greater heights? Do the linebackers have to be anymore than okay? We know that bad linebackers can ruin a season. Does Ryan Day trust Washington to bring the linebackers up to standard? I have absolutely no idea. The good news for Washington is that he’s got a good class coming in, and depth will improve with Hicks and Powers, as well as an additional year for Reid Carrico. Still, the depth and development of a couple of the veteran linebackers did not look good, and I don’t think it bodes well for his future.

The next guy that Day will have to make a decision on is Kerry Coombs. Ten weeks ago, I would have said that he was going to be let go for sure. Now, he might be the safest coach on the staff. Recruiting dipped severely when he left, and he has a richly deserved reputation as an outstanding recruiter. He has a great track record with DB’s but according to some NFL coaches, his DB’s lack good technique. If you ask me, this is kind of dumb. The Lions also complained that Okudah had no technique, and while he hasn’t played well for them, this feels like a Lions problem. Ohio State played a ton of Cover-3 in 2019, and Okudah started for a single year. If you expect a guy with that level of experience to be a technical expert at press-man, you are a buffoon. The Lions richly deserve their reputation as the worst organization in the league. Also, Lattimore and Ward were often praised for their technique, so I really do think it’s more team/organization/coach staff related rather than Ohio State related. Coombs is a great recruiter and an excellent DB’s coach.

Having said all of that, he cannot be allowed to continue as the defensive coordinator, which Day has already addressed. I am okay if he is coordinator by title, but the coordination and play-calling was given to a different guy. If he is willing to do this, I would be happy for him to stay. I was so impressed with the way he handled the defensive structure changes early in the year, and a guy like that is great to keep around. If he accepts those conditions, he is a keep. Otherwise, he must go.

The guy who took over for Coombs, Matt Barnes, is an interesting case. I couldn’t be more impressed with what he did in the span of a couple of months. I cannot stress how bad the defense was against Oregon in terms of coordination and coaching. It was quite literally the worst I’ve ever seen at Ohio State. Barnes largely fixed that in-season. This isn’t typical either. Michigan tried to do it last year after getting torched by Michigan State, and they completely imploded. That was the final straw for Don Brown.

However, that last performance gives me pause. I probably should have recognized that his fixes were limited given the practice time they had available. If he leaves, I don’t know if I will be all that upset. Still, out of all of the defensive coaches, he is a guy that has the most potential to be special. The media and coaches have continuously talked about his intelligence. Between that praise and his turnaround of the defense this year (as best as he could), he is another guy that I wouldn’t mind staying. I would also be okay with Day trying out Barnes for the bowl game and see what type of progress he can make in a month. If they improve massively in the span of the bowl practices, which are often considered the best time in-season to improve, I wouldn’t mind seeing him back. Still, while I would lean to replacing Washington and keeping Coombs in a more limited capacity, I don’t know what I want to see for Matt Barnes. I could see him going either way.

I am also including Parker Fleming here, for multiple reasons. I mentioned earlier that Ohio State needed another assistant coach on defense, and depending on what happens with the coaches, this might need a new spot for Fleming. His work with special teams was genuinely great, having the #1 special teams in the country according to SP+. Yes, I know, Julian Fleming as a kick returner, but that was an emergency. That’s a blip compared to the good from this year in every other regard.

I know Fleming’s been an offensive coach in the past, but switching to defense isn’t unheard of. Before Gus Malzahn was known for his offenses, he was a defensive coordinator. Urban Meyer always said that good offensive coordinators would make good defensive coordinators as well. These people just understand football on both sides of the ball. If Fleming is as smart as they say, they could try him out as a defensive assistant. Have him help Coombs on the back end.

Alternatively, if Tony Alford takes the Colorado State job, you could probably have Parker Fleming be the running back coach and special teams coordinator next year while hiring a new position coach on defense. Either way, I think the defense needs a fifth coach.

There isn’t an easy way forward for the defense. Changes have to be made on the coaching staff in order to become the team that can win a National Championship. Whatever the staff looks like next year, I would bet on it being a lot different than it is this year.

Archive

Offense vs. Oregon / Defense vs. Oregon

Offense vs. Tulsa / Defense vs. Tulsa

Offense vs. Akron / Defense vs. Akron

Offense vs. Rutgers / Defense vs. Rutgers

Offense vs. Maryland / Defense vs. Maryland

Mid-Season Review

Offense vs. Indiana / Defense vs. Indiana

Offense vs. Penn State / Defense vs. Penn State

Offense vs. Nebraska / Defense vs. Nebraska

Offense vs. Purdue / Defense vs. Purdue

Offense vs. Michigan State / Defense vs. Michigan State

Offense vs. Michigan

This series has been inspired by the Upon Further Review series at MGoBlog. If you are hungry for even more pain, their review of the Michigan offense against the Ohio State defense is here. They get a few things wrong, including mixing up Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith, as well as confusing Steele Chambers with Denzel Burke for one play. They are also far nicer to Ohio State's play-calling than I was. Still, it is worth a read if you can stand it.