Hello all,
I believe this will be part IV of my conversation with my Uncle threads. They've all been really well received, so wanted to keep it going.
Quick recap - Uncle played at Ohio U in the 90s, and then bounced around as a RB/TE coach for the next couple decades, before retiring after last year, to focus on his main passion. Farming. Good for me, I should be able to see him more often than just the major holidays now. As I've said before, my Uncle is not an OSU fan, but watches every game (usually on DVR), as sort of a way to connect with his Buckeye diehard in-laws. As a note, his comments are paraphrased, as these conversations happen face-to-face.
On Ohio State's defense and the scheme:
As a coach, you always want to run a scheme that best fits your players talents. I think the Buckeyes hit the nail on the head with their preseason plans. On paper, this team looks like it would perfectly fit a base single-high Cover 3 shell. Obviously, that hasn't been the case. To run this scheme, you really need a dominant defensive line. The weak areas of a cover-3 can most easily be attacked by a TE, RB, or slot WR. If the TE and RB have to stay in a help protect the QB, advantage defense. Tulsa was lining up in 10 personnel, and the RB was only being used as blitz protection. Tulsa believed they could go man-on-man against OSU's defensive line, and they did for a good while, until the depth of OSU wore them down. I really don't think this was a preseason failure by the coaches. I expected Harrison and Smith to be monsters to deal with, and I'm guessing the staff thought this as well, and we haven't seen that yet.
What about the LB's?
They seem to be narrowing in on the guys they want. One of them is a running back, right? The LB position has always been tough, but with RPO's and more athletic QB'...let's just say I'm glad I wasn't a LB coach. I've noticed OSU trying to help them out recently with Cover-2 or Quarters. It'll take time. Again, I really believe the staff thought the Cover-3 shell was going to be much more effective. Have to build up the confidence in these other schemes.
What is happening at LB?
A couple of things really.
- Lack of experience - There aren't many positions that require experience more than the LB group. They are in conflict every single play. It takes time to be a great LB.
- Lack of pass rush - Same thing I said about the pass rush and cover-3. The weak spots of a Cover-3 are in the middle of the field, around the LB's. But if the tight end and running back have to stay in the backfield to help block, or even just chip, it allows the LB's to play far more aggressive. Telling yourself you only have to play coverage for 2.5 seconds vs. 3.5 seconds changes everything about the way you play. This applies to the corners as well. In 2019, Ohio State played extremely aggressive. The corners and LB's were quick to jump routes, because they had no fear of getting beat deep, because the QB wasn't going to have time.
On the offense and QB situation
From a distance, it looks like OSU has 3 pretty even QB's. That's good for depth, but tough on the coaches and kids. I hate rotating QB's. It's a fine line. You want your QB to know that he could lose his job, but at the same time, you don't want him out there playing scared to make a mistake.
On Ryan Day
This season is Day's first major challenge. On the field and off the field. On the field, you lose Justin and quite a bit of production from last season. The offense is fine. I do believe Day needs to be a little more conservative, and then I think it will take off. I also wonder how long Day will continue to be the main play-caller. He's obviously a great offensive mind, but calling the plays is taxing, and makes it hard to get a "feel" for the game. There are great example of HC's that have called the shots, so I'm not saying Day needs to step back, but as a personal preference, I'd like to see it.
Off-the-field, he's now in his 3rd year. We always talk about Year 3 for any coach, because it is his guys. It's a little different for Day because the coaching change was smooth and everything stayed in-house. However, the culture will still change. Years 1 and 2, you primarily had guys that grew up so to speak, in the Urban Meyer culture. You're at a point now, where the Ryan Day culture is taking over, and he is still inexperienced as a head coach. Keeping Marotti at OSU was crucial, and I think Day will learn a lot from him. The X's and O's are one thing, but setting the right culture for 18-22 year old's is a different animal.
What do you mean by conservative?
They are moving the ball at will, but coming up empty handed on too many possessions. They aren't staying ahead of the chains nearly enough. If you are getting yards, but not getting points, that means your drives are stalling out between the 30-50 yard-line. What does Ryan Day like to do between the 30-50? Take shots. And Day doesn't do it the conventional way. Most coaches wait until they get in a 2nd and manageable spot before they take the risk. The problem with that, is defenses are fully aware that deep ball could be coming. Day counters this by attacking on 1st and sometimes even 2nd and long. Those plays haven't been working. I know he wants to take shots, but with this running game, I'm not sure you need them, or at least, as many of them.
Can Stroud get more accurate on those deep shots at this point in the season
You have to realize, it isn't just the accuracy that needs to be taken into account. Let's say Day calls up a shot play for Justin Fields on 2nd and 10. Most of the time, these came out of max protect sets. With most QB's a max protect means 1,2, throw it away. (meaning 1st read, 2nd read). With Fields it was, 1,2,run. Even if the deep shot wasn't available, Fields still had the ability to get OSU into a 3rd and manageable spot. Stroud is 1,2,throw it away. The ceiling of calling these shot plays remains the same, but the floor is much lower with CJ. People talk about all kinds of advantages of having a mobile QB, but I rarely, if ever, hear people talk about the advantage it brings to the deep passing game. Lot of green grass when you send everyone deep.
I do think CJ will get a lot better, and I guess he's been playing with a bum shoulder, so we will see. But in the meantime, I think Day needs to re-evaluate when he wants to take shots. He's going to take them, and he needs to, but I'd shy away from them on 1st/ 2nd and long.
Overall Prediction on the Season
This is a really tough season to predict to be honest. Ohio State isn't the only team struggling right now. You have a bunch of teams with things to work through. That being said, I don't see OSU running the table in the Big Ten, and finishing up 10-2. 4 games into the season, I'm not confident that a dominant DE is going to emerge, and that is going to force OSU to keep changing up looks and coverages that an experienced team can take advantage of. Additionally, with a Freshmen QB, you're going to have your ups and downs. Even Fields had bad games. But the rest of the team was able to rise to the occasion. Right now, this team can't survive a bad game from the QB.
