Now that God's conference has returned to play I want to start a weekly thread about the lines. I'll talk about the lines of the big games and the lines that I like. I follow SP+ which normally does well against the spread and will talk about that too. I'm gonna track my official card on here as the season goes on.
- Wisconsin(-19.5) @ Illinois-B1G opener this friday and my first bet. I am taking Wisconsin-19.5. Wisconsin generally goes through a process where the public drastically under rates them, comes around slowly, then say they were frauds when they lose to OSU. I think Wisconsin is very under rated coming into the year. The biggest mismatch is Wisconsin's defense vs Illinois's offense. Wisconsin has almost everybody back with 18/20 of their top tacklers returning, that is ridiculous. SP+ projects them to be #3 on defense and better than Clemson. Illinois is projected to have the 84th best offense by SP+. They lost their top 3 running backs and arguably their best receiver in Ricky Smalling. It not realistic to think they will be able to move the ball. On the other side they simply have a terrible positional mismatch. They lose their entire Dline along with a safety and linebacker. Wisconsin's ground game is going to destroy Illinois. A Wisconsin Oline averaging over 320 pounds per starter, a running back that weighs 230, and Danny Davis, Kendric Pryor, and Jake Ferguson are a very solid group of pass catchers. Its a big line but when evaluating the teams Wisconsin is much much better. SP+ also has Wisconsin beating the spread by over 3 points which is normally very good.
- Nebraska @ OSU(-26.5) - This line has been hammered up by almost a touchdown after OSU opened at -21. I am going to stay away from this simply because blow outs can be hard to predict. OSU could be up 38-10 after letting the back ups play in the second half and they give up a field goal. If I had to make a play I think OSU is the right side because they won by 41 last year and Nebraska isnt much better. OSU has said they want to run scores up but in a week 1 game with PSU on deck we wont be seeing everything.
- PSU(-6.5) @ Indiana- A very surprising line has been bet even more in Indiana's direction(it started as Indiana+7.) Journey Brown is out for the year which sucks but isnt a big deal for PSU. Indiana is super under rated this year but are they really within a touchdown of PSU? PSU is pretty weak at receiver and in the secondary but everywhere else they are far away better than Indiana. PSU's OL is very very good and they still have Noah Cain/Devyn Ford along with Friermuth at TE. The DL and LBs are very good as well despite the loss of Parsons. SP+ has PSU winning by 10. This line just terrifies me and the fact is was bet down makes it even scarier. I lean towards PSU as being the right play but I'm gonna stay away from this.
- Michigan(-3) @ Minnesota - A very big sway in this line after Minnesota opened as 2 point favorites. Last week I got Michigan+2 and had many people argue about it in the opening lines thread. If you refuse to look at Michigan rationally thats ok but dont talk about betting on them. Rumor has been multiple Minnesota players will be out of the game because of the varus. Minny is also going to be WEAK in the front 7, playing Michigan with a good OL, Charbonnet at RB, and a 6'5" 250 pound QB who can run will be a very tough task. Michigan is weak in the secondary which Minnesota could really attack with Rashod Bateman. Its going to be close but Michigan -3 seems like easy money.
Other Games I like
- Cincinnati @ SMU(-2)- Rumors of a massive number of UC players with the varus. UC is better off hoping this game doesnt get played. This would have been a very good game but UC struggles a lot on offense normally, and as a G5 team they wont be super deep on defense. SMU(-2) is simply a varus play.
- Louisville(-5) @ FSU- The simple folk took this line the wrong way. It opened as UL -9 and is now down 4 points. FSU beat "top 5" North Carolina last week while UL sits as 1-4. However UL has lost to Notre Dame by 5, Miami by 3, and Pitt by 3. FSU is still a terrible team. UL actually has a defense which is difficult for FSU to play against. FSU's DL should do really well which is the concern for me.
- Alabama(-20) @ Tennessee- Fresh off losing by 27 to Kentucky UT gets Bama. Bama is a lot better than Tennessee. Tennessee isnt deserving of being this close. Bama -20 easy.
- Virginia @ Miaim(-12)- Virginia has a 240 pound quarterback(fat) and just lost by 17 to Wake Forest. Silly line. Miami -12.
Rest of the slate
- Notre Dame(-10.5) @ Pitt
- NC State @ North Carolina(-14.5)
- Rutgers @ MSU(-13.5)
- Iowa(-3) @ Purdue
- Baylor @ Texas(-9)
- Iowa State @ Oklahoma State(-3.5)
- Oklahoma(-6.5) @ TCU
- Marlyand @ Northwestern(-11)
- SCAR @ LSU(-6)
Thoughts on these lines?