When thinking about Nick Bosa's decision, I was wondering how I would evaluate the risk of playing this season in a B1G title game, playoff semi-final, or playoff final. All other games don't seem like they would be worth considering, especially if it was rushing the healing process. Even the B1G title game might be on the early end of the recovery schedule. Anyway, playing in a semi-final or final game would obviously come at some risk. 

The worst example that I know of is Jaylon Smith. Notre Dame LB who tears ACL, LCL and nerve damage in a bowl game. Before the injury, projected top 5 pick. After his injury, he dropped to pick #34. It's hard to find exact numbers, but it looks like he missed out on roughly 10 million dollars based on that drop. He signed for 6.4 million guaranteed rather than over 20 million as a top 5 pick. After a sketchy insurance policy payout, I'm estimating a 10 million difference in guaranteed money after the injury. (here are some of the articles that reference Smith's scenario: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/jaylon-smiths-insurance-..., https://www.forbes.com/sites/blakewilliams3012/2016/01/14/fiesta-bowl-co...) It's not exact, but that seems like a moderate estimate for the absolute worst case scenario. I suppose you could argue that absolute worst case scenario would be a career-ending injury, but I think the odds of that happening are so low it's not worth considering. 

So on the table is a $10 million dollar loss worst-case scenario, and a best-case scenario of winning the national championship and solidifying his draft stock as the #1 overall pick. With a wide range of scenarios in between, I think it'd be important to know the worst-case risk when making the call. That's obviously a lot of money at stake, but on the flip side there's also a lot of cool memories/experiences to be a part of as a Buckeye for the remainder of the year. What would you choose? Are there other factors at play in this scenario?