(This all assumes Ohio State beats Wisconsin. Go Bucks!!!)
I understand this is a hot take. I've heard a lot of people, including the 538 model, say that Oklahoma losing to TCU would give OSU the best chance to make the playoff. I disagree with this sentiment... we should be rooting for Oklahoma to beat TCU convincingly. And here's why:
1) If Oklahoma wins... it makes one of Ohio State's losses look better. And it would be a clear cut, two team argument for the fourth and final spot. Alabama vs Ohio State. And I believe Ohio State has a solid chance to win this argument.
2) If Oklahoma loses... this makes the argument a lot more complicated. ACC winner and SEC winner would be in. And then a lot of people are saying "well then it would be Ohio State and Alabama... and the Big 12 would be left out entirely." I disagree. A two-loss Oklahoma would have a similar, if not better, resume than Ohio State. And they have the head to head, on the road, over us. The committee has shown how much they value head to head (Baylor over TCU). I know they say conference championships are their main priority, but I don't honestly believe that alone would put us in over Oklahoma. I can't see the committee putting us in and leaving Oklahoma out. No way that happens. This situation would have the following four, maybe five teams, lobbying for those last two spots:
Two loss Oklahoma (head to head road win over OSU)
Two loss conference champ TCU (going 1-1 against Oklahoma, and winning the more important Big 12 title game)
Two loss conference champ OSU (lost at home in a head to head against Oklahoma)
One lass Alabama (crappy resume, but doesn't have a head to head loss against any of the teams in contention)
Maybe even a two-loss Clemson team if Miami somehow beats them. The committee LOVES Clemson.
My point... argument 2 makes it easier for the committee to put in one of the big 12 teams and Alabama. I'll take my chances with argument 1. I would love to hear everybody's thoughts on who the top four would be if TCU beats Oklahoma.
