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Buckeyes in the CFP: Rooting Interests

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rgarrett22's picture
November 22, 2017 at 12:40pm
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As we head into *ichigan week, here are your updated CFP rooting interests (according to FiveThirtyEight):

The Buckeyes continue to hover right around where they were before the Illini thrashing, at a 29% chance of making the playoffs. This doesn't sound all that encouraging unless you factor in a win over TTUN and a win over the Badgers in the B1G title game. If the Bucks win out, then they are starting to look much better with a 65% chance of making the CFP. They certainly can't take those two wins for granted, but let's say Ohio State does run the table. Then here are the other results that would be helpful in terms of their priority:

1. TCU winning out as the Big 12 champion. The Horned Frogs have a tune up in 1-10 Baylor this week (seriously, Liberty beat Baylor this year). Assuming a win (yeah we can do that), TCU will then face Oklahoma for the Big 12 championship next weekend. Combined with OSU winning out, TCU as Big 12 champs would bump the Buckeyes' CFP odds to 77%. (Bonus help: Oklahoma losing to West Virginia this weekend.)

2. Alabama winning out as the SEC champion. Not far behind (a few percentage points)  TCU as a conference champ in helping out the Buckeyes would be Alabama running the table with difficult games against Auburn in the Iron Bowl and Georgia in the SEC championship game. If the Tide were to do so, they would knock out two playoff hopefuls in the Tigers and the Bulldogs. Combined with the above TCU results, Ohio State is now looking incredibly safe at 88%. (Bonus help: Georgia losing to Georgia Tech this weekend.)

3. Stanford winning the PAC 12. Huh? Perhaps, like me, you have been more focused on the ACC title race than anything pertaining to the PAC 12. It's actually quite likely that the PAC 12 carries a little more weight on the Buckeyes' CFP hopes than the ACC.

The PAC 12 race is down to three teams:
USC (bye week, 10-2, already clinched the North division)
Stanford (9-2, Notre Dame this week, their fate is in Wash State's hands for the South)
Washington State (9-2, Apple Cup versus Washington, controls their own destiny for the South)

Worst case scenario: Washington State defeats Washington this week and USC in the PAC 12 title game.

Almost no effect on Ohio State: USC as PAC 12 champs

Best case scenario: WSU loses to Washington. Stanford defeats USC and becomes PAC 12 champs.

Combined with the above BIG 12 and SEC outcomes, this best case PAC 12 scenario would cause the Buckeyes to be sitting pretty at a 93% chance of making the CFP.

4. Either Miami or Clemson losing both of their remaining games. In the relatively high likelihood that the Canes and Tigers both prevail this weekend, then the ACC championship isn't going to swing things all that much for good or bad. But, if one of them were to stumble this weekend (Clemson versus South Carolina; Miami versus Pitt) and to lose the ACC championship game, then that's actually a 6-8% boost for the Bucks' CFP odds.

If TCU, Alabama, and Stanford all win out as conference champs and Miami or Clemson were to lose both of their remaining games, then you have a glorious path of outcomes that would put Ohio State at over 99% of making the College Football Playoff. Why not dream big?!?

5. Notre Dame loses to Stanford this week. This would be the cherry on top of the Ohio State CFP sundae. A Notre Dame loss increases Ohio State's odds by 2%. Conversely, an Irish win decreases their odds by 2%.

6. Wisconsin defeating Minnesota this week. The Buckeyes earn a small 1% bump in their CFP odds if they take down an undefeated Badgers squad as opposed to a one loss team. Not that important.

Too much math? Just go with these rooting interests as you enjoy the games these next two weekends:

Cheer for the TCU Horned Frogs, Alabama Crimson Tide (yuck), Washington Huskies, Stanford Cardinal, for either the Clemson Tigers or the Miami Hurricanes to lose both of their remaining games, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, WVU Mountaineers, Pitt Panthers, South Carolina Gamecocks, and Wisconsin Badgers

Cheer against the Auburn Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners (gladly), Georgia Bulldogs, Washington State Cougars, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, USC Trojans, and both the Clemson Tigers and the Miami Hurricanes winning their games this weekend

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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