F/+ giveth, and F/+ taketh away. ‘Bama is back on top of Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings after Week Eight of the college football season. Last weekend produced some of the most dramatic changes we’ve seen all season in the advanced stats ratings. Most of this happened in the bottom half of the Top 40, but it’s interesting to see a few teams advancing in the last half of the season. The AP Poll largely looks the same as it did last week with the notable exception of some team that wears Maize and Blue falling from the Top 25. The voters are still giving the benefit of the doubt to some teams that probably shouldn't be receiving any votes based on advanced analytics. (Looking at you, Texas A&M, South Carolina and LSU.) So what else is new?
Observations from Week Eight data
1) Top 10. ‘Bama and UGA moved up one spot each to #1 and #1A (they have identical F/+ persentages), which knocked the Buckeyes down to #3. OSU is only 0.1% behind the leaders, and win this Saturday could move them back to the top. TCU swapped places with Penn State, claiming the #3 and #4 spots. Notre Dame made the biggest move in the Top 10 (up 3 places) after knocking of the Trojans in dramatic fashion. The Irish check in at #6. Clemson held fast at #7, while UW climbed two places to #8. The Huskies swapped places with Miami, which fell two spots to #10. UCF is the newcomer this week after beating Navy in a close game. The Knights are the first Group of Five team to breach the Top 10, taking the #9 spot. Oklahoma won last weekend, but the Sooners fell out of the Top 10 a surprising six spots to #12.
The Top 10 are all still +/- 2.0% of their mean F/+ percentage. That means this is anyone’s race. I can’t remember seeing this tight of a grouping in the three seasons I’ve followed F/+.
2) Stock falling. In addition to OU, TTUN fell seven places to #24 after the beat down in Happy Valley. USC is another team that took an obvious dump, falling ten places to #25 after failing to show up in South Bend. FSU and Iowa also took losses but only fell six places each. Utah plummeted 20 places, fell out of the Top 40 and landed at #48. But that only qualifies as the third worst fall of the week. San Diego State, which is still getting Top 25 votes for some unknown reason, plunged 28 spots from #36 to #64. But this week’s high-dive winner is UVA, which plunged 30 spots to #59. I don’t remember seeing a team fall that far in a single week. Farewell, Cavaliers. We hardly knew you.
For those who like to compare conferences, the bottom half of the SEC is a dumpster fire. UF fell 11 places, UK dropped 21, Tennessee fell 19, Arkansas lost 15 spots, and Ole Miss dropped another 13. Vandy managed to climb 2 places to #100. The bottom seven teams in the SEC are now rated #56 (UF), #75 (UK), #89 (UT), #91 (Ark), #92 (Mizzou), #94 (Ole Miss) and #100 (Vandy). For comparison, the bottom seven in the B1G check in at #51 (IU), #63 (Minn), #73 (Northwestern), #79 (Nebraska), #82 (Rutgers), #85 (MD) and #111 (Illinois). That’s right folks: Rutgers is better than Tennesse, Arkansas, Mizzou, Ole Miss and Vandy.
3) Stock Rising. It wasn’t all bad news last Saturday. Some other teams made significant gains. Four teams moved up seven places after good wins: Miss State (#17), USF (still undefeated #20), GA Tech (#23) and Louisville (#27). That makes the Cardinals the best 3-loss team in college football. LSU moved up eight places to #30, but is still completely undeserving of their AP #23 ranking. UCLA climbed 11 places to check in at #40. Northern Illinois is also making its first Top 40 appearance after moving up 16 places to #37. But that makes NIU the second best team in the MAC, because Toledo (6-1) Rocketed (literally) up the rankings 25 spots and grabbed the #33 spot. The single biggest jump this week, however, was accomplished by the Fighting Lane Kiffins of FAU. The Owls soared 28 places this week and perched themselves at #33. Don’t be surprised when the rumors of Kiffin to Little Rock start circulating.
4) Cognitive dissonance. Because the AP voters hate to admit they were ever wrong, and they all carry a certain amount of subconscious bias, there are some statistically bad teams still getting votes for the Top 25. The aforementioned Aggies, Gamecocks and Tigers continue to get love, because they are historic programs and in the SEC. According to F/+ ratings, only LSU breaks the Top 30…barely. Other teams getting love, which probably shouldn’t be, include Memphis (AP #24, F/+ #50), Marshall (AP #32, F/+ #53), and SDSU (AP #29, F/+ #64). Wisconsin and Wazzu have great records but haven’t really played tough schedules or played exceptionally well. They both appear in the AP poll well above their F/+ ratings.
On the flip side, the AP Poll is ignoring or downplaying a few teams, which are going to surprise a ranked team in the coming weeks. UCF checks into the F/+ standings nine places above their AP ranking, because Group of Five and they came out of nowhere. The biggest surprises are Miss State and GA Tech. The Bulldogs have two losses, but their F/+ rating puts them 11 places higher than the AP voters. They sit at #17 in F/+, but haven’t broken into the Top 25 yet. Likewise, the Yellow Jackets are #23 in F/+, but with two early losses are only getting enough votes for #30 in the AP.
Top 25 Match-ups
There’s four big match-ups this week, and they have a lot of CFP implications.
oSu (AP 11, F/+ 11) @ WVU (AP 22, F/+ 26). Oklahoma State has a shot at the CFP, so long as they don’t lose again. Vegas and S&P+ have the spread -7.5 in favor of the Cowboys, despite the game being played in Morgantown. I think weather may play a factor if it’s anything like the forecast (62 and rain). The Pokes are great on passing downs and are the superior passing team. But the ‘Neers have a better overall success rate, rushing offense and are better on standard downs. I’d take WVU to cover, and they may pull the upset if the rain is heavy.
TCU (AP 4, F/+ 4) @ Iowa St (AP 25, F/+ 19). This had ‘trap game’ written all over it, until ISU trapped OU. The spread is TCU -7, and S&P+ has it at -6.5. The game is in Ames, where Big XII Wannabe Champions go to die. Unfortunately, TCU is the one team in the Big XII that is playing defense. Horned Frogs win by a TD. If they lose, the Big XII may be sitting at home the night of the big dance.
ND (AP 9, F/+ 6) vs. NC State (AP 14, F/+ 18). This is a CFP elimination game. A second loss on the season is a death knell for either team. ND is a 7.5 favorite at home (Vegas and S&P+). The Irish are one of the few teams in S&P+ who’s efficiency, explosiveness, rushing, standard downs and passing downs conversion rank in the Top 10. (tOSU, Penn Sate and Oklahoma are the others.) ND’s only offensive limitation is overall passing. NC State isn’t close. Based on last week’s performance, I would take the Irish to cover.
tOSU (AP 6, F/+ 3) vs. PSU (AP 2, F/+ 5). Buckeyes win. Vegas and S&P+ have the home teams as 6.5-point favorites. I’m going with 10 points. There’s plenty of coverage on 11W, and you all are educated enough to make your own assessment. This is a CFP elimination game for the Buckeyes, and likely for Penn State if they lose; there’s a lot on the line. I’ll see you at the game. Go Bucks!
For anyone interested in seeing a complete breakdown of Vegas spread, S&P+, & F/+ projections, Bill Connelly has an awesome weekly article with a link to the mother of all spreadsheets.
