The margin of error is gone.
Unless Ohio State can finally upset one of the four Quad 1 opponents it has remaining, it can't afford to drop any Quad 2 games. A Quad 1 upset still might not be enough if the Buckeyes drop such a contest.
USC is no slouch. The Trojans are in the thick of the NCAA Tournament bubble race just as the Buckeyes are. But as Ohio State's résumé still lacks any signature wins and it still teeters on the fringes of the bubble, Wednesday's contest at the Schottenstein Center (6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network) is shaping up as a must-win game for OSU.
That's the current situation for Ohio State after a 21-point loss to No. 3 Michigan on Sunday. Let's dive into why tonight's bout is so vital.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
After a win that didn't provide much boost to Ohio State's tournament résumé and a loss that didn't provide much harm to it, the Buckeyes remain in the same spot they were for last week's Buckeyetology: The film of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
| Overall Record | 15-8 |
| Home | 10-3 |
| Road | 4-4 |
| NET Ranking | 39th |
| Q1 Record | 0-7 |
| Q2 Record | 4-1 |
| Strength of Schedule | 28th |
The aggregate of the 99 bracket projections assembled by Bracket Matrix places Ohio State as the last team in the Big Dance. Of those 99, 42 have the Buckeyes in the tournament, while 47 have them out. ESPN's Joe Lunardi recently dropped OSU from his last team in to his first team out. CBS Sports and FOX's Mike DeCourcy also place the Buckeyes as one of the first four teams out of the tourney.
An 0-7 record in Quad 1 games just isn't giving Ohio State any breathing room. That record was 1-6 last week, thanks to a win at Northwestern in December, but the Wildcats recently dropped to 77th in the NET rankings, two spots below what's needed for a Quad 1 win on the road. The Buckeyes themselves are 39th in the NET.
That ranking compares favorably to some other bubble teams. Miami, Texas, San Diego State, Santa Clara, New Mexico and Virginia Tech combine to form the last four teams in for Lunardi and DeCourcy. Of those six schools, only two – Miami (37th) and Texas (36th) – have a higher NET ranking than Ohio State. The problem is that each of them has at least one Quad 1 win. Miami, Texas and Virginia Tech have multiple.
There's another consideration that bracket projections can never take into account at this time of year: Bid-stealers. Every year, almost without fail, a few teams will win a conference tournament over a school or schools receiving at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament, shrinking the spots available for bubble teams. Suddenly, the last couple of teams in are the first couple out.
All this is magnified by the brutality of the seven games remaining on Ohio State's regular-season schedule after it faces USC in the Schottenstein Center. There are four Quad 1 games the Buckeyes will be underdogs in: No. 15 Virginia on a neutral court, at No. 10 Michigan State, No. 13 Purdue in the Schott and at Iowa, which received the second-most votes of teams not ranked in the AP Poll this week. The Hawkeyes are 20th in the NET rankings.
USC is one of three Quad 2 games remaining for the Buckeyes, though Indiana will become a Quad 1 game if the Hoosiers jump from 33rd to 30th in the NET before traveling to Columbus on March 7. The Trojans are a quality team, 48th in the NET, with two players who average more than 18 points per game, guards Rodney Rice (20.3) and Chad Baker-Mazara (18.3).
| Team | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 12-1 | 22-1 |
| Illinois | 11-3 | 20-5 |
| Nebraska | 10-3 | 21-3 |
| Michigan State | 10-3 | 20-4 |
| Purdue | 10-3 | 20-4 |
| UCLA | 9-4 | 17-7 |
| Wisconsin | 9-4 | 17-7 |
| Iowa | 8-4 | 18-5 |
| Indiana | 8-6 | 17-8 |
| USC | 7-6 | 18-6 |
| Ohio State | 7-6 | 15-8 |
| Washington | 4-9 | 12-12 |
| Minnesota | 4-9 | 11-13 |
| Maryland | 2-10 | 9-14 |
| Northwestern | 2-11 | 10-14 |
| Rutgers | 2-11 | 9-15 |
| Penn State | 1-12 | 10-14 |
| Oregon | 1-12 | 8-16 |
But there's just no room left to lose this one, given the schedule that's ahead.
Big Ten Outlook
A USC victory is also key for Ohio State's seeding in the Big Ten Tournament. The Buckeyes and Trojans are tied for 10th in the conference standings, but are both just 1.5 games out of eighth place, the final spot for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
Iowa is the team in that eighth and final double-bye spot, which Ohio State faces on the road on Feb. 25. Indiana is half a game ahead of both OSU and USC, meaning the winner of their matchup will vault ahead of the Hoosiers.
With eight regular-season games remaining, the Buckeyes have effectively clinched a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament, five games ahead of Northwestern and Rutgers along that cut line. They are three games back of a top-four seed and triple-bye, which remains a pipe dream.
But given the last three NCAA Tournaments missed by Ohio State, any Big Ten implications of Wednesday's game pale in comparison. It's do or die for the Buckeyes as they war with the Trojans.
