I mentioned in a comment last night that I bet we were nearly undefeated when we turn the ball over fewer than 15 times. So I decided to actually figure out how many times per game we turned it over and what the results were.
Overall we turn it over about 13 times per game (14 in conf play), compared to 12.8 for our opponent (12.2 in conf play). Which means we’re essentially giving our B1G opponents two extra possessions.
We’re 9-3 when we have fewer turnovers, and 7-6 when we have more (4-6 in B1G games).
Our worst outing in gross terms was 21 TOs against Iowa, while in net terms it was our -10 against Michigan (turned it over 19 times to their 9). We obviously lost both games.
Ironically, our best performance was actually the first MSU game, both in gross and net terms: we only turned it over 5 times. We lost anyway. Syracuse and Maryland also beat us when we turned it over 12 or fewer times, but we won the other 9 games.
Lastly, it appears that 15 is kind of the breaking point. We’re only 4-5 in games where we lose the ball that many times.
Obviously this is super high level and doesn’t account for things like pace or a cold shooting night, but thought it was interesting anyway. And it killed some time at work.