Games like the one on Sunday are where you separate the men from the boys, the contenders from the pretenders, and the haves from the have nots. I can sit here and spin a fantasy where the Buckeyes can compete against the Cavaliers, but barring a miracle improvement to the dodging and midfield, that's just not happening.
Virginia runs 3-4 deep on offense with former #1 overall recruits. They've got 5 stars registering zero points on offense in role positions. They have 5-star defenders everywhere you look. Virginia lost one of the best players in the faceoff game, and replaced him with someone who, through 2 games, has performed better. This is just a rough outing no matter how you look at it.
Virginia is going to roll out Connor Shellenberger (#1), Payton Cormier (#24), and Jack Boyden (#28) on offense. Any one of those players would easily be the best player to don an Ohio State uniform. It's not particularly close. The Buckeyes are going to have their hands full. Bobby Van Buren rotated in last game, but will need to be full go in order for the Buckeyes to avoid getting embarrassed.
Defensively, the Cavaliers will likely start Griffin Kology (#29), Cole Kastner (#39), and John Schroter (#49). They're good. Virginia, in my opinion, is not going to be an elite team this year, based on early returns, due to their defense. But that doesn't mean it's not a good defense. It's good enough to help the Cavs make a run. And that's all you need.
My assertion is based on their allowing opponents to shoot .300 on 70 shots, and those opponents are currently getting an eyewatering 68% of shots on goal. That's fine against TTUN and Richmond, but Notre Dame and Duke are going to be a different animal.
Goalie Matthew Nunes (#41) is starting, and will be feeling good. He has a save percentage of .556 through two games, averages 12.5 saves per game, and went through the gauntlet last year as the Cavs made the Final Four. Nunes is another high ranking recruit for the team out of Charlottesville at a position that matters. It's a nice luxury to have.
At faceoff, Anthony Ghobriel (#32) is absolutely killing it at the dot. Going 30-47 (nearly 64%), Ghobriel is going to be Tommy Burke's toughest competition yet. Ohio State needs to be at 58% on the day to really keep things interesting, so hopefully the experience of Burke can make a difference. If not, a rerun of last year could be in the cards.
On special teams, Virginia is surprisingly kind of bad. The Cavaliers have only had 3 Man Up opportunities this season, and scored just once. On the flip side, they have allowed teams to score on 4 of 7 chances when Virginia went Man Down. That's disturbingly bad. UVA is really, really good. But they're not perfect. Yet.
Offensive Coordinator Sean Kirwan left after 2023 to go be the Dartmouth head coach (why he did for THAT program is so mystifying). Virginia responded by nabbing then-Lehigh head coach Kevin Cassese to fill that role. Literally the equivalent of Ohio State football's Chip Kelly hire. I have no idea what Cassese is hoping to get out of it, but Virginia is looking very similar to last year's squad, schematically. There's a little more flow, but the actions are remarkably similar. The Virginia machine just keeps chugging.
Realistically, in order to win, Ohio State needs to have the following. First, an exceptional day from Caleb Fyock. These Cavalier players WILL beat their defenders. If Fyock limits the damage, it will go a long way.
Second, Ohio State has to win faceoffs. Anything less than 58%, and they're in trouble. Virginia scores a lot because they take a ton of shots (50 per game). Gotta keep the ball out of their sticks.
Third, Ohio State has be more efficient. Last week was a solid improvement on offense. But under 60% of shots on goal is going to lose them games. Especially to the teams remaining on the schedule.
Even with all that said, I don't see Ohio State winning. I hope it's within 5 goals. TTUN got utterly smoked, 19-11. Hopefully the Buckeyes do better.
Final prediction: Virginia 17, Ohio State 12.
Go Bucks!
Game is SUNDAY, February 25, at 1 p.m. EST, on ACCN Extra. Plan accordingly.
