Make no mistake, the House settlement centers on the NCAA’s P4 conference programs, whose athletic departments generate the most revenue, aka, “the haves.” Lead plaintiff attorney Jeffrey Kessler has emphasized that schools unable to afford revenue sharing won’t be obligated to participate.
The settlement is widely described by administrators as “permissive” in that it doesn’t require schools to share $20 million with athletes but grants them the “flexibility” to do so. In a fiercely competitive recruiting landscape—driven by high school prospects and college transfers lured by NIL—many schools are expected to use this leeway to offer top-dollar incentives. The settlement not only signals the death of amateurism in college sports, it’s a fulcrum that’s further widened the gap between the haves and have-nots.
For most Group of Five and FCS football programs, and even some P4s, revenue is already scarce. Scraping up $20M won’t be easy and for many, nearly impossible. Their athletic budgets are frequently propped up by university subsidies and student fees. At many G5 schools, $20 million would nearly match or exceed their total annual athletic budget. It’s neither feasible or sustainable.
For example, Ohio State’s athletic department pulled in $250 million last year—$100 million more than the 20th-ranked program, Arkansas, which generated about $150 million. At Ohio State, a $20 million payout is just 8% of the budget. At Arkansas, it’s pricier at 13%. But for a school like Miami (OH), it approaches 50%.
Faced with these disparities, some G5 athletic directors are understandably concerned about falling further behind and have begun floating the idea of launching their own postseason playoff.
It seems inevitable that the G5 will create their own division. That could be their choice or it could be thrust upon them if the P4s conferences decide to make a clean break—either move toward “secession” would be the first domino that sets off the other, i.e. every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
Assuming the G5 conferences are spun off to create their own division, will they pull in some lower hanging P4s, e.g., Wake Forest, where $20M is estimated to be half of its athletic revenue, as well as some top-flight FCS programs, e.g., the Dakota and Montana schools? Aside from any opt outs, the FCS would remain intact. Each division could play up or down one level, i.e., Kent State could play Ohio State and Youngstown State, but Ohio State and YSU could not play each other.
House may have also spelled the end of the ACC for football as its private schools (Wake Forest and Boston College, even Duke and Stanford) could be forced to make hard choices—can they keep up with Joneses or should they move to a more affordable neighborhood? If they decide to opt out, will the ACC implode, a move that Clemson and Florida State would presumably love?
And then there are schools like Memphis, Boise State, Oregon State, and Washington State (I’ll throw in UNLV as a budding G5 powerhouse in a lucrative NIL market) that want to be P4—if they can come up with the ante, can they buy a seat at the P4 table?
And then there are the academies, where House and NIL don’t apply: I just don’t see Army, Navy and Air Force opting to play in a lower division.
House could result in a slew of new independents reminiscent of when many east school schools (Penn State, Miami, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pitt, Temple, Virginia Tech, and Boston College) were independents prior to Penn State joining the B1G in 1990. Rather than forming a ragtag conference of schools scattered from coast to coast (aka the ACC today), why not a bunch of independents that all agree to play each other? Especially if the P4 uses rankings for seeding. I am inclined to think ND would champion that kind of movement as a way of protecting its own independence. (Biggest argument against it: questionable collective bargaining power for TV revenue.)
And, of course, within all this talk about football, there are all the other sports, i.e., if the ACC breaks up for football, does it remain intact for everything else or would those babies get thrown out with football’s bath water?
I’m guessing it will likely take a year or two for the P4s to break away or for the G5s to get mad and get organized but I’ve seen this divorce coming for a while; the only questions are what other dominos will fall and in what order?
Thoughts?
