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Alabama New Depth Chart Breakdown and SP+ Projections

+8 HS
Spartan13's picture
September 22, 2020 at 12:15pm
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Bama just released their new depth chart for the season and after looking at the vegas odds its clear Bama is one of the two teams that can prevent an OSU title. I wanted to break down their depth chart and compare it to OSU.

Offense-SP+ projects Bama to have the #1 offense and on the surface that seems to make a lot of sense. Najee Harris at RB, Devonta Smith/Jaylen Waddle at WR, and a very experienced OL should be incredible. 

  • QB-Mac Jones is the starter heading into the season despite many clamoring for Bryce Young to take his spot. Young is a true freshman who is supposed to be a Kyler Murray clone. Jones vs Michigan last year was 16-25 with 325 yards while Justin Fields was 14-25 for 302 yards so they had similar stat lines throwing against the same team(but different circumstances.) I think Jones is very underrated as a thrower but as a runner he is no threat at all. Jones relied on Jerry Juedy and Henry Ruggs who were both first rounders. His lack of a running threat makes him easier to play but at this point he seems good enough to win a title with great pieces around him. Fields is quite a bit better than Jones.
  • RB-Najee Harris somewhat surprisingly returned after a really good junior year and with Brian Robinson and Trey Sanders they have arguably the best running back room in college football. Harris averaged 6 ypc last year and had 27 catches for 300 yards. His biggest knack, and why he is still in college, is he isnt very fast with his longest run being only 31 yards. Harris is nowhere near as explosive as Etienne. As a group they are likely better than OSU's backs but not by much and they wont be anything too daunting. 
  • Receiver-2019 saw quite possibly the best receiver group ever in college football with Juedy and Ruggs off to the NFL it now leaves Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle as the primary options. Devonta Smith had 68 catches for 1256(18.5 ypc!) Including over 200 yards vs LSU's secondary. Jaylen Waddle had 33 catches for 17.0 ypc. These two are incredible receivers who rely on their speed. Bama will do everyhting they can to get the ball in their hands. While they have an elite top 2 guys there is a bit of a downgrade to their next group. John metchie is the other starter and he is Bama quality but nothing scary like the others. Outside of Smith/Ruggs there isnt much to fear. The receivers are very comparable for Bama/OSU, OSU has a great 1/2 punch with Olave and Wilson but after that their is a lot of question marks. Jameson Williams has a higher ceiling than anybody else Bama has and could be our own Devonta Smith. 
  • OL-This is where it gets really interesting. Bama returns 4/5 starters losing only Jedrick Wills to the first round. LT Alex Leatherwood is likely a first round pick, Evan Neal started at LG as a true freshman but will kick out and play RT, Landon Dickerson Chris Owens and Emil Ekiyor all have starting experience in the IOL and will make up the starters. As excited as we are for the OL they are on the same level as we are. Neal/Leatherwood are first round tackles and the talent inside may not match ours but it is still very good. NPF meeting his potential would make OSU better but as of now this is a wash.
  • TE-Neither team utilizes the tight end much in the passing game but OSU has a clear advantage at the position. Miller Forristall is Bamas starter and he is decent but at 6'5" 245 he is nowhere near as physically imposing as either Ruckert or Farrell and he was overshadowed by the receivers. Clear advantage to OSU.
  • Summary-Alabama is incredible. I didnt think anybody would have an OL at the same level as we did but Bama does without a doubt. Devonta Smith and Waddle are incredible but I was surprised to not see another high level talent near the top of the depth chart. Their depth at running back is much better but they dont really have a big advantage in talent. They dont have a tight end the caliber of Farrell/Ruckert. Lastly Mac Jones is very under rated but because he is a statue and Fields is a great athlete OSU has the clear advantage there. In all I think OSU projects to have a better offense but it is pretty close. 

Defense-SP+ projects Bama to have the 19th ranked defense this season after being pretty bad(relative) last year. This is where Bama needs to make big strides because they need to be on the same level as OSU/Clemson but also have a disadvantage at QB so they may need to be even better. Bama runs a 3-4 so ill compare the whole front 7 instead of LB/DL. Also OSU runs 3 corners so Ill compare whole secondary.

  • DL-Labryan Ray and DJ Dale return as starters. Ray started the season but got hurt early and returns. Ray is a massive DE at about 6'5" 295, may not provide much pass rush but is a massive end who will eat up blocks. DJ Dale is the NT and started as a true freshman last year. While it is very impressive to start that early he didnt do a whole lot from the NT position recording just 17 tackles and 1 sack. Expect a big jump from him in year 2. Justin Egoigbe was the last is the last starter and is similar to Ray at 6'5" 285. He also enters his true sophomore season. This is a talented group and while their stats arent on the same level as OSU's understand they are asked more to eat blocks for the linebackers. NPF/Munford will need to be at a high level to handle these two ends in the run game. NPF specifically is a concern as he has struggled with gaining weight. 
  • ILB-Dylan Moses makes his heralded return and is expected to be the best LB in the country with Parsons gone. Moses is fantastic and will be a 2nd round pick most likely. He was a 2nd team all-american in 2018, he is better than anything OSU has by a lot. Christian Harris started as a true freshman last year and he also returns in the middle. He was decent but should take a big jump next year. This is a tremendous ILB duo and should vastly improve what was a big weakness for them last year. 
  • OLB-While the ILBs improve the OLBs may take a step back with Anfrenee Jennings and Terrell Lewis off to the NFL. A true freshman, Will Anderson Jr is expected to take over for Terrell Lewis and quite simply thats not ideal for Bama. He was a top 10 recruit but wont be at the level Lewis was. Chris Allen and Ben Davis havent done much in their careers and will make up a 3 man rotation with Anderson. This is not a high quality position group. 
  • CB-Bama may be the best in the country here. Patrick Surtain is in conversation to be CB#1 in the draft. At 6'2" 200 and a multi year starter he has everything to be a top 10 pick. I think Wade may end up being better but they are a wash. Josh Jobe is the other starter after earning starts at the end of last year. He is also going to be a high level starter. 
  • Safety-Jordan Battle is one starter after getting 4 starts as a true freshman, he is very good. Daniel Wright has been a backup for awhile and is closer to being an average Bama defender than a high level one like Battle. 
  • Front 7 comparison-Bama should be much better up front than last year, DJ Dale and Christian Harris should make jumps after starting as true freshman and Dylan Moses being back is huge. Stopping the run should be much easier. However the pass rush is a concern with the DL being built as run stoppers and the OLBs being pretty questionable. OSU has some real issues at LB though with Pete Werner being the only proven commodity and every snap Tuff Borland plays is a glaring weakness. Its hard to compare these groups right now because OSU has so many question marks. Zach Harrison, Tyreke Smith, Taron Vincent, and Tommy Togiai could all literally either be first round picks or average defenders. 
  • Secondary-I would call this a wash. Surtain and Wade are at the same level. Josh Proctor and Jordan Battle are likely at the same level with a chance Proctor could be better. Then Josh Jobe and Daniel Wright dont have the ceilings Cam Brown and Sevyn Banks do but for now they are also about the same level on paper. 
  • Summary-Dont expect Bama to be bad on defense again. Their injuries and reliance on true freshman are what killed them and having everybody back and the freshman a year older should make them very stout up front. Their best OLBs are gone which could really hurt their pass rush but they have two likely first rounders in Jordan Battle and Patrick Surtain. 

Overall I think on paper OSU is better. On offensive it is close but Fields vs Mac Jones is such a disparity and Bama isnt really solidily better anywhere on the fields except inside linebackers. OSU has a lot more guys on defense who are unproven with high ceilings so its hard right now to peg who is better on defense. Either way these teams are very very close in talent. 

https://www.rollbamaroll.com/2020/9/22/21450515/2020-alabama-crimson-tid...

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